THE BULLSHIT IS IN

yo!... wipe out... innit!

the palookaville index..

 .PALS

the palooka index guide..

follow the money

buy an hold..

buy the dick..

trash the cash..

panic early.. 

THE SHORT AN THE LONG OF IT

market watch..

  A big question to start the week is whether investors have gotten ahead of themselves..

after the S&P 500 managed its..

best weekly gain in 45 years 

as the Federal Reserve threw more money at the economy. 

Banks may have something to say about that Tuesday as they kick off earnings season..

shedding light on the damage that’s been done so far by the virus..

Our call of the day.. from a team of Goldman Sachs strategists led by David Kostin..

 says the worst of the market rout is behind us..

A “previous near-term downside of 2000 [for the S&P 500] is no longer likely..

Our year-end S&P 500 target remains 3000 (+8%),” says the team in a note to clients on Monday.

Why?

“The combination of unprecedented policy support..

 and a flattening viral curve..

have dramatically reduced downside risk for the U.S. economy..

and financial markets and lifted the S&P 500 out of bear market territory,” 

said Kostin..

 whose gloomy stock prediction from last month came..

the day before a complete market meltdown.

“If the U.S. does not experience a second surge in infections after the economy reopens..

 the ‘do whatever it takes’ stance of policy makers..

means the equity market..

is unlikely to make new lows,” 

said Kostin.

THE BOTTOM DROPS OUT OF THE TOP 

Market News Opinion

 

Published..

April 13, 2020 5:04 PM UTC

• Stock market analysts continue to set price targets for the Dow Jones..
•  
• and other indices amid the coronavirus-induced turmoil..
•  
• Economist Mohamed El-Erian says..
•  
• that there’s “no playbook” for predicting where the stock market will go next..

• He warns that the wild equities swings..
•  
• stem from rapidly-changing narratives – not fundamentals.

After the U.S. stock market recorded its best week in nearly five decades..

you’d be forgiven for thinking the Dow Jones was due for an encore..

But not even a historic oil production cut..

was enough to keep the risk-on mood intact..

ahead of what promises to be a grisly corporate earning season..

Unfortunately for investors..

economist Mohamed El-Erian says..

that these wild swings in market sentiment..

and asset valuations are the new normal..

And no matter what your favorite stock market forecaster claims..

absolutely nobody knows where the Dow goes from here.

El-Erian: 

There’s No Playbook for Stock Market Forecasts

 El-Erian..

the chief economic advisor at Allianz..

was one of the first high-profile economists to warn that..

 the coronavirus outbreak could..

trigger a stock market crash.

 

 THE BULLSHIT IS IN

 

Market NewsOpinion

Published:

April 13, 2020 5:04 PM UTC

‘No Playbook’: Economist Reveals Why Every Dow Jones Forecast Is BS

Forget what your favorite Dow Jones forecaster says. Economist Mohamed El-Erian warns there's "no playbook" for reading this stock market.

Josiah Wilmoth @Y3llowb1ackbird

Stock market forecasting has become less about analyzing economic fundamentals..

and almost entirely about guessing..

what medical and fiscal narratives are going to rule the day..

in both the short and long-term..

  Source: QE3/PIMCO REUTERS/Jason Reed

• Stock market analysts continue to set price targets..
•  
• for the Dow Jones and other indices..
•  
• amid the coronavirus-induced turmoil..
•  
• Economist Mohamed El-Erian says that there’s “no playbook” 
•  
• for predicting where the stock market will go next.
•  
• He warns that the wild equities swings stem from rapidly-changing narratives..
•  
•   not fundamentals.

El-Erian: 

There’s No Playbook for Stock Market Forecasts

El-Erian, the chief economic advisor at Allianz, 

was one of the first high-profile economists to warn that..

the coronavirus outbreak could trigger a stock market crash..

But given the peculiar environment that accompanied this historic downturn..

he says there’s..

 “no playbook” for forecasting a recovery.

In this environment of enormous uncertainty, nothing would surprise me..

 We need to be great health experts to predict the market..

And you need to get a feel for how far can the Fed go from here..

These are really big unknowns…

we have no playbook to guide us.

Fundamentals didn’t ignite the Dow’s fastest reversal in history..

nor did they catalyze the..

stock market’s most aggressive weekly rally since 1974..

Apocalyptic “narratives” drove the market down..

and – today’s reversal notwithstanding – 

a spate of rosier narratives..

helped stocks rally off their late March lows.

These markets, when they move, they move really quickly..

 And what do they move on?

A change in the governing narrative.

We are very sensitive to narratives.

The problem is that narratives don’t always jive with reality.

Nor is reality particularly easy to quantify reality these days anyway.

What Narrative Will Drive the Dow Next?