Sunday, 31 August 2008
Dateline whatever + 24 : PALOOKAVILLE
the debate up heh onna bridge be about 'flation. some as sez at 'flation be IN' an some as sez it gon be DE'.....all depends onna money amout man!
check out these - bizness failin but IN' nutters gon keep rates up! from 'the independent'....
Bank of England to show no mercy as firms go under
davis smiff o de sunday times is fo bringin em down.
Bank needs to slip off its inflation shackles
this my favrit bit dudes '
"The reason this is interesting now is that money GDP has taken a sharp downward lurch. Figures released a few days ago showed its growth rate in the second quarter had slumped to 4%, considerably weaker than its recent average. It may be telling us, more reliably than any forecast, that inflation worries are misplaced and the Bank could safely cut interest rates...."
UPDATE : yo mish gotta great post on this as per usual.-(itz inna sidebar)
this ma favrit bit "The odds of a significant bout of inflation now are about the same as they were in 1929. Next to none. History is about to repeat."
put taxes up and pensions down!
AND NOW HE HOPES TO BOLDLY GO WHERE NO PALOOKA HAS BEEN BEFORE...
A row over a £40billion plan for State-backed mortgages to tackle the housing crisis has fuelled the bitter feud between Gordon Brown and Chancellor Alistair Darling that threatens to wreck the Government’s economic relaunch.
BROWN WANTS YOUR KIDS TO STAY AT HOME FOREVER!
WAITING FOR YOU TO MOVE OUT SO THAT THEY CAN GET THEIR OWN HOME!
the sunday times has a go at GORDON DARLING today for telling the truth about the BOOM WOTZ BUST.
Labour in turmoil over Alistair Darling gaffe
Mortgage hopes hit by Darling
and areal pop at im in their EDITORIAL -
come on guys, TELL THE TRUTH - the boom is bust and its bust for a while. HOUSE PRICES NEED TO FALL SO THAT PEOPLE CAN STOP LIVING WITH THEIR PARENTS AND BUY A HOME.
Thursday, 28 August 2008
Is BEA Measuring Growth or Inflation?
Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius: Don’t Be Fooled by Inflation
hint! look in the side bar !
FINANCIAL NINJA PICKS UP ON THIS -
Incomes Flashing Clearer U.S. Recession Signal Over Last Year: “The meager gains in earnings over the last year signal the U.S. economy is in much deeper trouble than the growth estimates indicate, economists said...... for the rest - ITS IN THE SIDE BAR!!!
Previously...on Dorktrek : Lost In Space...
The crew from the loft have fallen thru the back of a cornflakes box, in the breakfast nook of the loft, in downtown PALOOKAVILLE and onto the bridge of the United Flakes Starship Turnerprize, which has been hailed with a strange warning about trillions of dollars being sucked into a deleveraging black hole. On the way to investigate, the Turnerprize was caught up in the dreaded 'Flation - a nebula of the most disturbin kind.....read on at yo peril...
PALOOKAVILLE star date whatever+23.... Incomin messages...
spider : glad yo back man! all sorta shit appnin roun heh. nebula changin colour n shape alla time.
pickardthepainter : it the 'flation spider dude! it pullin in diffrent drections allova a place. price o commodities been goin up while price fo sweat been goin down. folks is all confused, don't know which way t' turn....
zooney : politix is messin wiv da time warp dudes! they tryin ta fix da boom wots bust! won't let it lie man. they jus wanna keep it goin til after the 'lection then WHAMOOLA! watch out below!
beulah : have you seen the price of vittals/ theys goin thru the roof man! gas is goin up, an vets bills, heatin an coolin, taxes, glasses, teeth, medcine. alla stuff yo caint do wiout!
lavern : yo tellum gel! this shit outa control an some sukka tell us they aint no money an its gonna be prices fallin real soon! y'all fulla shit man!
pickardwhatever : I don tol ya ita nebula wot doin it! evva thang upside down an back ta front. yo theys money inna east but not inna west! them as has commodities has money an them that has mcmanshions has none!
yo see..... we been buyin shit offa the east with paper man! an we now all fulla shit and deeper in debt. now they wants evva more paper fo they commodities but they canna shift their shit cos we fulla it!
inna nebula evvabody inna shit, but they caint see the big picture cos of the warping factors.
the Turnerprize gon be like a freakin rowboat iffn we don't get the navigation right, always lookin back while goin forward, we gotta ask rouby an rogof wot they think an we gotta see where we gonna be in 2009.
spider : incommin.....
pickardthepainter : THIS IS WHAT I THINK!
we gonna be inna whole new show nex yeh.. the new show gon be a spin offa dorktreck : lost in space. in order to get outa the nebula the politix are gonna fix space by stoppin time. this they think will re-ignite the boom an save our asses from the bust. this gon be a big mistake, anna Turnerprize gon be slit in two. the posh bit atta front gon be spun off to Dubai anna workin stiffs, inna back, gonna be in DEEP SHIT (2000&)NINE a space station stuck inna time warp with stagflation an no gum ta chew.
afta the 'lection, wether it be obama bin ladin or 'chips' mcain wotz onna throne, we gon geddit inna ass big time!.......to be continued............
Tuesday, 26 August 2008
Most City economists now believe a recession is inevitable - and are focused instead on avoiding depression and deflation. Edmund Conway reports
......"UK consumer spending looks very vulnerable and retrenchment could be both severe and long-lived," he said. "How bad will the UK recession get? It's difficult to know. The fact that excesses in the housing market and in consumer spending look as if they have far to unravel suggests that it is likely to continue well into 2009."
The scale of the debt bubble, however, raises memories of Japan before its lost decade. The Bank for International Settlements recently raised the spectre of deflation in its Annual Report, and it is not hard to envisage inflation dropping back so sharply that it comes in below target, causing consternation to policymakers."
Sunday, 3 August 2008
(with apologies to Tim Congdon and all highlights, colours and italics etc are mine)
Opkin' : It Congdon man! He surfaced inna Sunday Times wi a beltin piece!
Pickardthepainter : Quick! Fire the maroon man.(he all at sea) We gotta have a all crew meetin inna breakfast nook. Congdon he a top dude! Like wot dished the dirt on the Deutchmark Shadow an how we was gonna hit the nebula in '89/90. Turned out bad man - fallin house prices, dudes onna dole, recession nebula until 92 - felt like sh*t until 96.
A pause while the beamin up machine does it's stuff... then...
Congdon : Y' canna change the laws o Friedman!
Pickardthepainter : Yo Congy dude! Welcome aboard...
Previously...on Dorktrek : Lost In Space...
The crew from the loft in downtown Palookaville have fallen thru the back of a cornflakes box, in the breakfast nook of the loft, in downtown Palookaville and onto the bridge of the United Flakes Starship Turnerprize, which has been hailed with a strange warning about trillions of dollars being sucked into a deleveraging black hole. On the way to investigate the Turnerprize was caught up in the dreaded 'Flation - a nebula of the most disturbin kind.....read on at yo peril...
For the full article see
Congdon : "In evidence to the House of Commons in February last year I warned that by the spring of 2008 the Bank of England would be “in quite serious trouble” by the standards of the Nice (non-inflationary, consistently expansionary) years from the early 1990s. I said an inflation rate of 4%-5% in 2008 or 2009 would not be “a surprising sequel” to policy mistakes “since mid-2004”. I suggested that interest rates might have to be raised to 6%-6.5% “to bring inflation back to target in 2009”. I did not give a precise forecast for the year from mid-2008, but proposed an inflation rate of 4%, an output growth rate of 1%, falling house prices and 6.5%-7% base rates.".......
Zooney : Wow wotta player!...sucker got it right onna button!
Congdon : ..... "Why was I so worried in early 2007? And what had the Bank of England got wrong “since mid-2004”? The answer is that from mid-2004 to early 2007 the Bank of England had allowed too rapid growth of the quantity of money. In the balanced and stable Nice years — that is, the decade to 2004 — the growth rate of the M4 money measure averaged slightly more than 7.5% a year. But in the three years from mid-2004 this figure jumped to over 12%. (M4 includes notes and coin, and virtually all bank and building-society deposits.)"......
Zooney : Milt. says ..."The source of inflation is fundamentally derived from the growth rate of the money supply.
Congdon : ......"Most money consists nowadays of bank deposits, but a deduction is necessary for artificial deposit creation between financial institutions and within banking groups. In 2006 and 2007 such artificial deposit creation was on a huge and bewildering scale, and undoubtedly puffed up money growth."....
Zooney : Yo dig that red stuff man!
Congdon : ...."But by mid-2006 the Bank of England ought to have realised that something was wrong. As the Bank itself publishes enough information for an analyst to identify the scale of artificial deposit creation, it ought to have known that underlying money growth had accelerated to a double-digit rate and posed an inflationary threat. Companies were flush with cash, takeover activity was boosting share pricesrapid house-price inflation was stimulating consumer spending, and so on."....
Pickardthepainter : Remember it well dude. us all here onna bridge lookin atta screen, seein everthin goin blue .
Congdon : "In the last Inflation Report, the Bank had the gumption to publish a chart with a money-growth series adjusted for artificial deposit creation. With such deposits deducted, M4 growth in 2005, 2006 and early 2007 was a little lower than on the original series, but was still above 10%. Given the long-term relationship between money and inflation, the conclusion cannot be escaped: the Bank of England made a policy error in this period by failing to curb money-supply growth."
Opkin : Yo! It were the bank wot dunnit!
Congdon : "Where do we go from here? As far as the economy is concerned, the situation has changed radically since the start of the Northern Rock crisis a year ago. Banks are still expanding their balance sheets, by absorbing the business carried out during the boom by their prodigal offspring — conduits, special investment vehicles and such like. But they have cut back sharply on new credit to important outside customers, such as companies and homebuyers."
Pickardthepainter : "Bubble, bubble, toil an trouble, our shares halve an they shares double!"
Congdon : "The chart of adjusted M4 growth in the May Inflation Report shows that the bank deposits of the latter are now growing much more slowly than in 2005 and 2006. Indeed, money held by companies has been falling in the past few months, while cost pressures — from higher energy and input prices — are severe. The result is a corporate liquidity squeeze reminiscent of that in the busts of 1974, 1980 and 1991...."
Spider : Say wot!!!? We busted man! Suckers 'av bust the boom wot Brown said was 'istry. He said it was the Toryons wot dunnit last time and he was gonna play it a new way!
Congdon : "Brown must now cope with the political fallout. Some commentators have hinted that he may try to overcome the monetary straitjacket by “fiscal reflation”, with tax cuts and yet more increases in public spending. That would be the height of folly."
Pickardthepainter : O.K. Three cheers for Congy and maybe this new piece a the jigsaw gonna get us outa here! But don count onnit... Far as we here in space can see...instead o lettin down the balloon and takin it onna chin, they suckers is gonna try an fix it....SHEEEEEEIT! look out below...
To be continued...
Friday, 1 August 2008
Yo can get the full piece over in Naked Capitalism in the blog roll bar at side ....
As our reader will already know we have been discussing 'Flation over the last few posts and it is good to have a cool voice from Tokyo to cred. up the debate.
Cassandra also refers to a famous artist's (Demon Hurst) DIAMOND ENCRUSTED TITANIUM SKULL -
"Diamond-encrusted skulls, while not MY my metaphorical cup of tea, apparently are de rigeur in certain circles. I certainly am not qualified to pass judgment on this particular one's artistic merit. Nor do I wish (here) to sully those whose opinion of such a piece tends towards the favorable. So despite my inherent aesthetic and financial skepticism, I bring to your attention that it remains possible that - as with Faberge eggs - such curios might in fact turn out to be sound (and portable!) long term stores of value."
Demon is about the most famousist artist ever! so I guess casandra is probably right...
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Yo! Spider dude, How come we gotta keep sayin this stuff about this is not advice blah blah?
Painter dude thats so's the suckers out there won't go do nothin stupid and say we told em it was ok. Then they gon come get yo with some smart ass lawyer an sue yo skinny ass off!
No way man! Aint nobody dumb enuff to listen to some freakin artist view on investin they hard earned bucks?
Way man, Sooo way! Them suckers'l listen to any kind o s**t if they think they can get a edge.
Just look at the way they piled inta real estate, CDO's SIV's, CDS's and whatever.
Shoot! What you say Halfcat?
It's cool! What the f**k kind a lawyer gonna sue a dog or a rat?
Opkin : I'm a mouse! you mutt!
Pickardthepainter : Chill guys, cool it, the suckers watchin an all.