Showing posts with label credit squeeze. Show all posts
Showing posts with label credit squeeze. Show all posts

Monday, 14 September 2009

THAT GREAT DAY HAS COME

yo!...happy birthday...innit!


PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day+365...


...all is quiet on the financial front...


...in palookagrad today...


...all is changed...


...prime minister mandelson and comissar brown...


...are awaiting re-election...


...on the back of their zombie recovery...



BEAR MARKET BULL


...since the chicken's head was bitten off...


...and the politix danced around the fires of the burning banks...


...all the talk is of the new bull market...


...the great recovery...


...how it was all just a panic...


...well maybe they are right


and we can sleep easy in our beds


and all the young unemployed can play football


travel, crochet, see a movie...



NEGATIVE FOR NEGATIVE'S SAKE


...baltic dry is down again...


...but only 40%...


...ships lie idle all over the world...


...but only 12%...


...house prices have stabilised...


...honest!..


...not...


...cars sales have risen...


...from the ashes...


...on free money incentives...


...in japan...


...they are spending like there's no tomorrow...


...in china inventories are up...


...flats are empty...


...but inventory is up...


SHORT FOR SHORT'S SAKE


...come on sh*t for brains...


...pile in now...


...this is the biggest free ride the politix will ever provide...


...capitulation day?...


...moral hazard...


...what a twat!..



halfcat : don y'all mind petey non...he jus a shadder o his ol sell...



petey : oh yeah...an this...

Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research said US bank loans have fallen at an annual pace of almost 14pc in the three months to August (from $7,147bn to $6,886bn).

"There has been nothing like this in the USA since the 1930s," he said. "The rapid destruction of money balances is madness."



petey : ...disclaimer...an obviously...this aint no advice...etc. etc.










Thursday, 3 September 2009

MAKE IT SO 如此做它

yo!...defying gravity...innit!


財務的PALOOKAVILLE
投降日347


bloomberg...Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- China’s stocks rose for a third day, driving the Shanghai Composite Index to its biggest gain in six months, on speculation regulators will adopt measures to boost the nation’s equities following declines in the past month...


...The government may take measures to stabilize the market before the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China on Oct. 1, the start of a weeklong holiday.

“They want everything to be stable and in harmony,” said Francis Lun, general manager of Fulbright Securities Ltd., in an interview with Bloomberg Television today. “They will approve more stock market funds and allow them to buy into the market.”...


...here in...


...palookagrad...


...all things are possible...


...but...


...most things are fixed...



...in theory...


...the gamblers bets should be winning all the time...


...except when they do not...


...of course...


...nobody knows when this must happen...



Tuesday, 23 June 2009

Monday, 22 June 2009

DEBT AND BET

yo!...casino capitalism...innit!



PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+274...


...In palookaville today...


...everyone is a winner...


...the chinese have made all this cheap money available...


...for their many millions of gamblers...


...to play with...


...Chinese bail-out cash heads for Macau’s casinos rather than Guangdong factories...


and

...Xie: Chinese Banks Funding Commodities Speculation, Casting Doubt on Recovery...


...so...


...funny how so much of what we are told...


...by those pollyanna people...


...is proved bollox...


...eventually...


HERE IS THE NEWS


...the fruit machine has stopped...


...payouts are history...


...get a job...


...if you can...




IN GERMANY THEY DO IT DIFFERENTLY



...Berlin weaves a deficit hair-shirt for us all...



!NON!


...Sarkozy rejects austerity measures...

Monday, 15 June 2009

Zombiegrad Spring

yo!...good news week...innit!



ZOMBIEGRAD FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+265...


...this morning...


...here in...


...zombiegrad...


...even the msb...


...are carryin the real news...


GERMAY F**KED


..."Paul Krugman: The "Nipponisation" of the world economy with a bunch of "Argentinafications" playing a role in the acute crisis. But even after those are over, we have the Nipponisation of the world economy. And that's really something.

Will Hutton: What was the heart of the Japanese problem? What was at the heart of their 17 years of going nowhere?

PK: Well, my guess is that it was that the balance-sheet problems took a very long time to resolve. And it is difficult to get enough demand in an economy where you have really very adverse demography ...

WH: So, which countries look closest to being Nipponised - combining balance-sheet problems and ageing populations?

PK: Well, the US doesn't have the same combination. But in Europe, Germany and Italy look comparable. France is better and Europe as a whole is considerably better.

WH: Germany matches Japan to an uncanny degree. You talk about the Nipponisation of the world economy: I'm not so sure. But I would talk about the Nipponisation of Europe via a German economy at its centre in the grip of the same problem - and that starts to be a global problem.

PK: Germany has huge inadequacy of domestic demand. Their economic recovery in the first seven years of this decade rested on the emergence of gigantic current account surplus.

How is it possible that Germany, which did not have a house price bubble, is having a steeper GDP fall than anyone else in the major economies?

The answer is that they depended upon exporting to the bubble regions of Europe, so they actually got side-swiped by the loss of those exports worse than the bubble regions themselves got hit.

It's Germany on a global scale that is the concern. We worry about the drag on world demand from the global savings coming out of east Asia and the Middle East, but within Europe there's a European savings glut which is coming out of Germany. And it's much bigger relative to the size of the economy.

WH: And on top there is an unique and unaddressed huge potential banking crisis. The Germans pride themselves on their three-legged banking system, but it is incredibly interlinked. The IMF warns that Germany could have to take at least $500bn of writedowns, which its banks have not begun to recognise. German banks hold a trillion dollars - maybe more - of maturing collateralised debt obligations that can only be refinanced by crystallising the losses. We've had RBS and you've had Citigroup. Germany's GDP will fall 6% this year - before the banking crisis has hit it....

...PK: That the cause is primarily financial. Certainly, Lehman and all of that alerted us all. And it did trigger an immediate drop in demand. But the housing bust was going to happen regardless.

The fall in business investment is at least to a large degree a response to excess capacity, which is the result of falling consumer demand and the housing bust. So we don't know.

WH: I think we know more than that. The links between bank capital, loan losses, credit availability and economic activity and asset prices have never been clearer. That was why there was a threat of Depression.

PK: Clearly, re-establishing stability in the financial markets is a necessary condition for recovery. But we're not sure it's sufficient.

WH: That's very scary.

PK: Well, that is part of the reason why I am so depressed.

WH: In one of your lecture charts you seemed to be suggesting that we're 12 months into what you think could be a 36-month period of downturn, albeit at a slower rate.

PK: Easily.

WH: It's quite shocking that you think it will be that severe.


petey : Im shocked that you're shocked...Will

PK: If we measure the 2001 US recession by when the labour market finally started to turn around, it was a 30-month recession. It was really 30 months in before you started to see the unemployment rate come down."

...guardian...


wolfgang in the FT...

..."The March signs of revival turned out to be little more than a technical inventory correction, with no change in the underlying trend. The world economy is still contracting, though perhaps not quite as fast as at the start of the year.

As an analysis by economists Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke* shows, global industrial output is still on the same trajectory as it was during 1930.

The only question is whether we can avoid 1931 and 1932.

The answer is yes, but on conditions that seem increasingly implausible if we extrapolate current policies. We can avoid calamity if monetary and fiscal policies remain supportive throughout the duration of this crisis, if we fix the banking system and if we impose regulations to constrain a resurgent financial sector. We also have to be lucky to avoid another round of market turbulence in the near future.

In other words ... the answer may well be no. Central banks and governments therefore risk moving too swiftly out of a recession-mode strategy. When Axel Weber, president of the Bundesbank, publicly talks at this time about how to communicate a rise in interest rates, it tells me that the danger of a premature exit, at least in Europe, is clear and present....


...So at this point, I see the chances as roughly even between a global slump and a return to quasi-stagnation. What is so galling about this scenario is that it is avoidable. The central banks took the right decisions. But the political reaction has been near-catastrophic almost everywhere.

Instead of solving the problems to generate a recovery, the political strategies have consisted of waiting for a recovery to solve the problem. The Europeans are relying on the Americans to generate growth. The Americans are relying on the Chinese, who in turn are waiting for the rest of the world.

Even if the US were to generate some growth, as is likely after this summer, it would not benefit global exporters; China may be one of the fastest growing economies in the world, but it is only about half as large as the eurozone in dollar terms. And as Brad Setser** has pointed out in his blog, there is absolutely no evidence that China contributes to a global recovery. While Chinese investments are up by more than 30 per cent from last year alone, imports are down 25 per cent. All this hype about decoupling and China pulling the world out of recession is baloney. The data tell us that China’s exports and imports are both falling, and that imports are falling faster.

As everybody expects the others to move first, nobody ends up moving. In the meantime, the problems grow worse. US house prices, which are down by a little over 30 per cent from their peak, still have some way to fall. Until the US housing market hits rock bottom, perhaps sometime in 2010, there is no chance of a recovery in the securitisation market, without which there may not be sufficient credit growth....

...The only potentially good news in the past three months has been the receding threat of a currency crisis in central and eastern Europe. But I am not even sure that this is for real. The persistent refusal by eurozone policymakers to concede fast-track euro accession for central and eastern member states could yet prove destabilising.

Last week, the ECB had to provide €3bn in euro liquidity to Sweden’s Riksbank, in the absence of which Sweden may have experienced its second banking meltdown in less than two decades. The inevitable collapse of Latvia will have ripple effects on the Baltic region and may cause panic among investors in other central and east European countries.

This is why last week’s news about the withering green shoots is so important.

It tells us that the non-strategy of waiting until things get better is not working.

The March signs of life reinforced complacency.

Optimism will get us out of this crisis only if it is founded in reality.

Last week showed us that this is not the case."

...FT...


..."Neil Mackinnon, chief economist at ECU Group, said Washington believes European states are "free riding" on American stimulus, expecting the US to pull them out of crisis yet again.

Europe's industrial output continued to slide in April and was down 22pc from a year earlier, suggesting that talk of a "V-shaped" rebound is premature. At best, the pace of decline has slowed. Production fell 23pc in Germany and 24pc in Italy.

The ECB expects the eurozone economy to contract by 4.6pc this year and a further 0.3pc next year, with no recovery until mid-2010.

Structural rigidities of the region raise risks that it will remain trapped in slump well after the rest of the world has turned the corner, as it did after the dotcom bust.

This time Europe faces the extra head-winds of a strong euro, over-valued against the 45-odd countries such as China that are linked to the dollar. This currency effect is slowly "hollowing out" Europe's industrial core...."

...ambrose...


...oh yeah!..

...an this...








Friday, 29 May 2009

Rising, Rising, Rising...

yo!..rawhide...innit!


PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+247...


...the story so far...


...the clever b*stards that run the financial world...


...have bust the banks...


...in turn...


...the banks have bust the sovereign states...


...the sovereign debts...


...have spooked the bond market...


WELCOME TO THE END OF THE WORLD


...apparently...


...it all started with property speculation...


...caused by bubble money...


...when the bubble burst...


...many, many, many...


...suckers got taken out...


...the politix...


...were busy with their expences claims...


...and their business interests...


...they are either responsible for the current mess...


...or incompetent...


...that is...


...guilty...


...or...


...stupid...



KEEP THEM RATES A RISING


..."Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds have risen relentlessly since March when the Fed first announced its plan to buy $300bn (£188bn) of US government debt directly, a move that briefly forced rates down to nearly 2.5pc, a level thought to be the Fed's implicit target.

Yields have jumped to 3.69pc – after spiking as high as 3.74pc on Wednesday – pushing up the standard 30-year mortgage loan to 5.08pc and lifting the borrowing cost for corporations...."

...Daily Telegraph...



LOSE THE DOLLAR


...here in...


...palookaville...


...we can't gloat...


...as we have our own currency problems...


...we could all go down together...


SLOW BOAT TO NOWHERE


...in China...


...they are hoping for a new world currency...


...and a new world order...


...first though...


...they may have to start buying some of their own stuff...



RALLY ROUND THE RALLY


...sucker, sucker...


...off the wall...


...will still be long...


...when markets fall...


THEY ALSO THINK


...that have no brains at all...


...it's the property stupid...


...the collateral is not what it was...


...every time it falls...


...well it's not...


...pennies from heaven...




Wednesday, 22 April 2009

In Danger of Talking Ourselves Out of Recession

yo!...credit is debt...innit!


PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+210...


...here in palookaville...

...the talk is all about the green shoots...


THEY THINK IT'S ALL OVER...


...of course they don't...


...but...


...what they think and what they say...


...are two different things...


THE BANKS ARE BUST


...this is not often alluded to...


...there will be no return to boom...


...this time it really is different...


ONCE BITTEN, TWICE SHY


...they say that the consumer will return...

...that banks will lend as before...

...that people will borrow again...

...like they did last summer...


...i don't think so...


We are not even half-way through the

banking crisis - IMF



..."The simple truth is laid out in page 33 of the Global Financial Stability Report , published today in Washington: "if banks were to bring forward to today loss provisions for the next two years, before expected earnings, US and European banks in aggregate would have tangible equity close to zero."In other words, the entire global banking system would be bankrupt - kaput - if its institutions immediately wrote off all the toxic assets still sitting in their vaults without any government assistance...." Telegraph...


...this from the big picture...

..."So we keep the system going. Now, where are we today?

We are at the Great Deleveraging.

We are seeing massive losses and destruction of assets, on a scale that is unprecedented. There was massive destruction of assets during the Great Depression, which caused a lot of problems, and we are seeing the same thing today. We are watching trillions simply being poofed (another technical economics term — which will drive my poor Chinese translator crazy!). We are watching people pay down their credit lines, which is one way of saying the supply of money and credit is shrinking.

This is not just in the US, but all over the world. Because when you start adding European cash-to-credit, and Japanese cash-to-credit, and Indonesian and Chinese cash-to-credit, it becomes multiple tens of trillions, and we are watching a goodly portion of that credit be vaporized. So we — individuals and businesses — are trying to find that $2 trillion in real cash and get some of it to pay down our debts. We are reducing that massive leveraged money supply down to some smaller number. We are hitting the Blue Screen of Death. We don’t know what it is going to reset to, but we have permanently seared the psyche of the American consumer, and it is going to get reset to some lower number, about which I will speculate in a minute.

Now to give you some idea of how important credit was in our recent period of economic growth — and I keep using this slide, but it is an important slide because it shows you what would have happened in the economy without mortgage equity withdrawals. The red lines are what GDP would have been without MEWs. Notice that in 2001 and 2002 we would have had negative GDP for two years, that’s 24 months. It would have been as long as or longer than the current recession. Not quite as deep, because we had the Bush stimulus and Bush tax cuts at the time. The Bush tax cuts were very important in keeping the economy rolling over in 2001 and 2002.

But notice that the recovery for the next four years would have been under 1%. We would have had under 1% GDP for four years running, without mortgage equity withdrawals, without people being able to spend more. That doesn’t even count the leverage we increased on our auto loans, on credit cards — you saw the two charts that Louie [Gave] and Martin [Barnes] used yesterday about the growth of credit, and we are now seeing it in reverse. Do you think George Bush would have stood even a small chance of being reelected without mortgage equity withdrawals?


GREEN SHOOTS


..."The force that through the green fuse drives the flower
Drives my green age; that blasts the roots of trees
Is my destroyer...."
dylan thomas


...IT IS NOW

..."In other words, if you thought the immense amounts of taxpayer cash funnelled into the system over the past couple of years was enough to bring us back to good health, think again.


It is an extremely worrying verdict, particularly coming at a time when many had been assuming that green shoots were starting to sprout and the recession was coming to an end.

But it underlines one simple but undeniable truth:

that this recession is different.

It is the consequence not of a simple one-nation housing crash or a consumer slowdown but a catastrophic collapse of the financial system. And with that system still in a wreck normal service will simply not be resumed without more costly bail-outs - or else we must accept the consequence that money will be far more expensive to borrow in the future, and that economic growth will be far less in the future." Telegraph...edmond conway blog...


petey : it were me wot done the italics an stuff...





Wednesday, 11 March 2009

IF ONLY...BUT ALSO

yo!...down the plughole...innit!


PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+175...


AND THE NEXT 'FLATION WILL BE


lex : ..."Anyway, what might trigger a rise in inflation? That is the biggest stumbling block for worry-worts. The unwinding of the credit boom of the past 10 years will require higher savings, weak consumption and low investment, probably well into the next decade. That ensures demand will remain weak, and with it inflation too...."FT





'Sell every asset except gilts'

Conventional assets – even gold – are no good as hedges against the inevitable deflation, says one asset manager.

AND

Inflation will kill the gilt rally in the end

The announcement by the monetary authorities in the UK that a policy of quantatitive easing (QE) would be implemented was greeted with euphoria by the gilt market.


BUT ALSO

EXPORT I MANUFACTURE I MANUFACTURE I EXPORT

...here in palookaville we have always been told...

...our economy is f**ked bescause we have too small...

...a manufacturing base...

...we do not export enough...


...but look around the world and what do you see...

...world exports falling off a cliff...

...the great manufacturing economies...

...collapsing with them...



IF ONLY

...christopher fildes...

...spoke of the 'if only' brigade...

...if only the BOE were independent...

...if only we exported more...

...if only we manufactured more...

...if only we had a strong currency...

...if only the banks would lend more...

...if only we could re-start the boom...

...if only people did not talk the economy down...

...if only we could stop the short sellers...


WELL

IF ONLY

THE POLITIX WOULD STOP FIDDLING


...like taking power from the BOE and giving it to the FSA...

...like robbing the pension funds...

...like robbing the savers...

...scrapping PEPs...

...increasing tax complexity...

...creating a client state...

...busting the economy...

...increasing the national debt...

...busting final salary pension schemes...

...while MPs have voted themselves...

...bigger salaries and better pension entitlements...


NB chart is uk based and funds reflect the effect of currency movements


charts from equitable life are used as an illustration of sector performance comparisons only
and not as a commentary on their investment performance. no opinion is offered here either for or against equitable life as a pension company...

...they just happen to have these charts...
...which i find very helpful...
...when comparing sector fund performance...


...THERE IS A DISCLAIMER AT THE TOP O THE PAGE...

...THIS AINT ADVICE AN WE AINT IN BUSINESS...

...WE JUS SUCKERS LAK YOU...

...PISSIN INNA WIND...








Saturday, 7 March 2009

ROBBIN B*STARDS

y0!...daylight robbery...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+171...



...here in palookaville all the talk is about the local outlaw...


...his band of merry men and women...

...with guaranteed, index linked pensions...


...who are stealing the pensions from the poor...


this robbin band

...STEALS FROM THE POOR...

...GIVES TO THE RICH BANKERS...

...AND THOSE WORKING FOR THE STATE...


...meanwhile...


...the serfs here in palookaville are all watching the football...

...or phoning in their votes for some reality tv idiot...


...they do not know about how they have been robbed...

...they have been told that...

...the boarded up stores are part of some american problem...


Retirement plans of millions of Britons at risk after Bank of England 'prints money'

The retirement plans of millions of Britons have been put at risk after the Bank of England's controversial plan to create money tore an unprecedented hole in pension schemes.



..."The Bank was accused of hammering the final nail into the coffin for Britain’s final salary pension schemes, which have seen their deficits climb in recent years, partly as a result of Gordon Brown’s decision as Chancellor to levy a £6 billion tax raid on pension funds’ dividends.

Some 2.5 million workers are currently signed up for these schemes which provide retirees with a guaranteed annual income when they reach the appropriate age.

Having enjoyed a small surplus only a year ago, these funds have also been hit by the fall in the stock market over the past year.

However, the effect of the Bank’s scheme has been to increase the deficit between what is in the funds and what is needed to pay out future pensioners by an almost instant £100 billion. Although some expect the deficits to fall in the years ahead as the economy improves, insiders warned that this could be the final straw that persuades companies to shut down these schemes altogether and turn instead to far less generous defined contribution plans.

However, experts warned that even these more parsimonious schemes, which 8 million workers are subscribed to, will suffer as a direct result of the Bank’s actions. The amount these people receive from their pension depends not only on the size of pot they amass over their working life but on the rate of the so-called annuity which provides them an annual income from the moment of retirement...."sunday telegraph



painty : now watch the companies with these pension deficits...
...see their share prices come under even more pressure...

Saturday, 21 February 2009

THE CALL OF THE WILD ONE

yo!...cool fo cats...innit!



PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+152...


...here in palookaville we take our stash seriously...

...we always lookin out fo squalls...


...we usta read the msm until the blogs got goin...


...this bloke bill adlard usta get a shout...

...inna paper called 'the business'...

...me an beulah usta like it a lot...


ANYWAY

...this bill geezer was always bangin on about a commin crash...

...an you know me...

...ol misery guts...innit!...


...I knew he would be right sooner or later...

...itz a pity that 'the business' went out of...


...but here is bill...

FTSE 100 'to fall by more than 40%'

The double whammy of poor economic data and the ongoing global credit crunch drove the FTSE 100 into meltdown today, wiping off some £60bn in shares - the steepest fall since 9/11 in 2001.


And one industry expert is urging investors to prepare for more sharp falls and a return to the lows of the bear market between 2000 and 2003.

Bill Adlard, a professional trader and market analyst at Chart-Guide.com, is urging investors to get into cash as soon as possible because he fears the FTSE 100 will soon start on a downward trajectory that will take the index back to its lows of 2003 – a fall of more than 40%.

He says: 'The world is heading for a major economic depression. The FTSE 100 is going to fall back to its lows of 2003.

'My advice to investors is to get in to cash and stay there as it will be the asset class that outperforms all others over the next five years.'


'Previously, back in 2003 there was a massive credit expansion but now we are heading for a credit contraction. The major difference is that in 2003 debt was lower and if prices fell it didn't necessarily mean that people had to sell.

'But since then there has been a credit binge resulting in the massive inflation of debt and as such there will have to be a lot of selling if it is to be paid off.'

It took just over three years and three months for the FTSE 100 to bottom out during the last bear market.

On 30 December 1999 at the height of the technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) boom, the index of the UK's largest firms peaked at 6930.2 – but by 12 March 2003 the index had plummeted by more than 50% to 3287.

Adlard added: 'The FTSE 100 will fall again over the same time period, if not sooner.' "



petey
: nice one bill.!...


...disclaimer...

...this aint no advert an no bollox...

...read the disclaimers at the top an find yo own stuff out...


STOP THE PRESS


...ah found anuvva one...


'Footsie to fall 90% from all-time high'

The severity of the ongoing economic and market torment has now led one analyst to forecast that the FTSE 100 index could plummet to below the 1000 level in the coming years.


Bill Adlard, a professional trader and market analyst, at Chart-Guide.com gave This is Money, the most gloomy - but notably the most accurate - forecast for how the index would fare in 2008.

Now Adlard says: 'I believe over the coming five years the FTSE 100 could fall by around 90% - from its all time high in 1999 of 6930. It could easily be below 1000 in five years time.

'The UK market will reflect what happened in the US between 1929 and 1932 when the Dow Jones dropped by 90% from 397 to 40 points. I expect something of the same from the Footsie.'

Speaking to This is Money 12 months ago, Adlard said that given the coupling of poor economic data and the ongoing global credit crunch, he believed that the index could pull back to its lows of 2003 – a fall of more than 40%.

In early trading on 10 October, 2008, the Footsie, had collapsed to 3873 - a fall of 40% since the start of the year - and Adlard's prediction had come to fruition.


By the year's end, the index had clawed back some of its fall and finished 31% down over the 12 months.

At mid morning trading on 28 January, 2009, the Footsie was at 4266.31. On 31 December 2007, the index was riding far higher at 6457 – giving a fall of 34% in the past 13 months. It hit its all time high of 6930, back on 31 December 1999, and today's level exemplifies a drop of 38% since then.

For the rest of 2009, Adlard expects the index of the UK's top 100 firms to 'thrash about between 4,500 and 3,500' before ultimately crashing through the lower barrier.


petey : only time will tell...innit!


...disclaimer...

...this aint no advert an no bollox...

...read the disclaimers at the top an find yo own stuff out...

Saturday, 7 February 2009

THE DEPRESSIONIST MASTERPIECE

yo!...every picture tells a story...innit!


PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+139...





NB chart is uk based and funds reflect the effect of currency movements


charts from equitable life are used as an illustration of sector performance comparisons only
and not as a commentary on their investment performance. no opinion is offered here either for or against equitable life as a pension company...

...they just happen to have these charts...
...which i find very helpful...
...when comparing sector fund performance...


...THERE IS A DISCLAIMER AT THE TOP O THE PAGE...

...THIS AINT ADVICE AN WE AINT IN BUSINESS...

...WE JUS SUCKERS LAK YOU...

...PISSIN INNA WIND...



Wednesday, 21 January 2009

STANDS WITH A BOWL

yo!..home ta roost...innit!



PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+119...


...the story so far...

...a new american president has gone supernova...

...but...

the great british dictator has gone brown dwarf...



NOT THE END OF THE BEGINNING


...the weather is turning icelandic...

...but...

...so is the pound...


THE WHITE POUND

iain martin : "They don't know what they're doing, do they? With every step taken by the Government as it tries frantically to prop up the British banking system, this central truth becomes ever more obvious.

Yesterday marked a new low for all involved, even by the standards of this crisis. Britons woke to news of the enormity of the fresh horrors in store. Despite all the sophistry and outdated boom-era terminology from experts, I think a far greater number of people than is imagined grasp at root what is happening here.

The country stands on the precipice. We are at risk of utter humiliation, of London becoming a Reykjavik on Thames and Britain going under. Thanks to the arrogance, hubristic strutting and serial incompetence of the Government and a group of bankers, the possibility of national bankruptcy is not unrealistic." telegraph...


ninja : ..."All the growth in tax receipts linked to real estate and financial services was of course was nothing but an illusion. Those tax receipts are gone now, almost certainly never to return. Most of the financial firms won’t record profits for years and when they finally do, they will have years of losses to carry forward. The net result will be a giant, prolonged corporate tax shortfall.

In the meantime, the government is throwing good money after bad. This is of course plunging the country deep into debt. Just like in Iceland, although to a lesser degree relative to GDP, UK banks have liabilities in other currencies. As the pound goes into free fall, these liabilities explode in value crippling the banks. As the UK issues more debt to stabilize the banks, even more pressure is put on the pound. A vicious, debt death spiral could easily be sparked."...


jim rogers : ...“I don’t think there is a sound UK bank now, at least, if there is one I don’t know about it,” he says.

“The City of London is finished, the financial centre of the world is moving east.”
“All the money is in Asia. Why would it go back to the West? You don’t need London,” says Mr Rogers.

Mr Rogers thinks the pound is more vulnerable than the dollar or the euro.

He says the UK housing market is arguably in a worse state than that of the US, given pockets of strength in the US and prices that are sliding across the board in the UK.

Meanwhile, he says, the UK is in worse shape economically than the eurozone, where most countries are not big debtors and do not run huge trade deficits.

“If the UK discovers more North Sea oil, I might change this view,” he says. “But I don’t see that happening.” FT


ticker : ..."There is exactly one way to resolve this problem - the banks must be "crammed down" through forcible reorganization, and we must stop bailing them out and handing them money.

We cannot recapitalize them through taxpayer donations, for through that path we only delay the inevitable. We do not have the ability to "manufacture" or "borrow" the three to five trillion dollars it would take to cover those losses - a full fifty percent increase in our federal debt, on which we would pay hundreds of billions of dollars a year - forever - being a permanent drag on GDP. Such a path will only lead to more insolvency as the crimp on GDP will inevitably lead to more job losses, more credit losses and more malaise, ultimately resulting in the very collapse that the proponents of this path claim to be trying to avoid."...


THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW


matthew lynn : ..."
One thing is clear, though: The world won’t go back to the debt-fuelled, globalization-crazy world of 2007."

“Unlike previous postwar contractions, the problem the global economy now faces does not primarily stem from a temporary mismatch between output and demand,” Stephen Lewis, chief economist at Monument Securities Ltd. in London, said in a note to investors. “It arises, rather, from the breakdown of the financial system, and the process of wealth-destruction that has set in train.”

Three Tasks

The question now is how Obama can take the lead in fixing that. Here are three places he could start.

First, ditch ideological hang-ups. The debate on how to move on from the credit crunch is fast turning into trench warfare between the traditional advocates of big government and the die- hard supporters of the free market. That isn’t getting us anywhere. The free-market camp needs to recognize that there wasn’t enough supervision or regulation of the financial markets. We are going to need more rules.

Likewise, the big-government camp needs to understand that more spending and government meddling won’t fix much either. We don’t want to lose the growth, dynamism and opportunities that flowed from the free movement of money, ideas and people across borders. The path to be steered will have to lie somewhere between the two extremes.

Rules for Banks

Next, new rules on the way banks operate are needed. It is clear that the global banking system had ignored the risks building up over many years. The incentive systems had become perverse. New capital requirements will have to be devised for banks to stop excessive risk-taking. Institutions such as hedge funds and private-equity firms will have to be brought into the system: They play too big a role in the financial markets to be left unregulated. And the rules need to be global. There is no point in changes being made country-by-country. That way we lose all the benefits of globalization.

Most importantly, the imbalances need to be fixed. Too much capital was being recycled through the global financial system. Some countries -- China and Germany, for example -- exported and saved too much. Others -- the U.S. and U.K. -- imported and borrowed too much. That will have to be rectified. It is no good having one lot of countries telling everyone else to consume more unless they are also willing to consume less. That will hurt. But there is no way of avoiding it. Where the last president had a war on terror, this one needs a war on financial bubbles, and that requires a more balanced global economy."bloomberg...



peteynation : foolin alla the people alla the time is difficult...

...1997 - 2007...

smoke an mirrors...profits of wax...

...less of the benefit...

...more of the tax...



Wednesday, 31 December 2008

GOODBYE TO ALL THAT

yo!...that woz a yeah wot woz...innit?

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+102


...it sho am cold...inna loff...


...folks is all bundled up inna xmas swettez...freezin they bollocks off...


...hardleh a soun come aht o any onnem...


ECSTATIC INNA ATTIC


paintbrush : ??.suckah gone dahn...innit!

zooney : tomorra be anutha day...anna new yeah...

beulah : ....yawn...

laverne : sumbich...

opkin : bollox is fulla pre-dicks...

spidah : onna web...no one hear ya laff...

dopey : ake me up wennit all ovva...

grumpy : we saved the wurld...innit!

neinstine : time is relative...time ta see the relatives...time ta cut loose...


The financial crisis has slashed the equivalent of £60,000 from the wealth of every family in Britain in the past year, research suggests.


ANOTHER YEAR ANOTHER DOLLAR


...in palookaville we take predictions seriously...


...which is why we don't make none...


scheizer
:
...: It's pretty clear the pros aren't buying. They are selling to the usual victims with the help of the Wall Street media.

The November low was a panic low and not a capitulation low. Capitualtion is when no one wants stocks, period. With the latest EPS forecast for SP500 earnings now at $42, and a Bear market bottom of a PE=8 (based on the last 4 big recession bottoms), the SP500 could/should see 42 x 8 = $332 in 2009. Perhaps we will see capitulation then. comment




...
scheizer : Inning one of the Depression - perhaps that is the way you should look at it, plus read this:
seekingalpha.com/artic...


petey : my comments on seekin alpha stuff

Wednesday, 24 December 2008

UP THE GARDEN PATH act 2

yo!...alladin insane....innit?


PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+96


...while shepherds washed their socks by night...

...all seated onna grahnd...


BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR


...the story so far...

...the audience have been led up the garden path by the politix anna banks...

...this is their last Christmas in work...

...they savins have been de-interested and their currency devalued...

...they house value is way down anna negative equity is nokkin onna door...

...they pension pot is lak a scrotum inna arctic sea...

...they holiday abroad is off...


BUT THE SHOW MUST GO ON


...aladdin has freed the genie fromma bottle an made a wish...number one of three...


...ah wan a end ta leverage restrictions so as a 'vestment banks can go for it big time...


...the genie laughs his bollocks...off as a huge credit bubble grows out of the stage...


aladdin : WTF..!...ah dint mean it ta go lak at...Gdude...stop the credit bubble man...


...no sooner are the woids ahter his gob than...the Gdude laughs again an...


...whummmppppp!!!...lehman bros. is toast...as credit contracts...

...an two trillion bucks go up in smoke...


aladdin : F**k me!....oooohhhhhh sh*t......the genie laughs agin....


....aladdin is seen runnin fo his dear ass....


Gdude : cool it large bald aladdin!...i aint gon nail yo ass...ah nood thet wern't yo wish...


aladdin : ok...ah wants 700,000,000,000,000(whatever)bucks ta wipe uppa mess inna banks...


...the genie laughs agin...


ALLA DOUGH BIN MADE OFF WI


...the vezzel wiya bezzle...has a pellet wiya poison...


...the pension fromma palace has a brew wot is true...



snowhite : (sotto voce)(to the audience) pssst!...don tell at painty bastard...

...but ahm glad he guardin me stash an not at bezzle b*stard...

...still avvin said that...santa look all pooped aht ta me...



NB chart is uk based and funds reflect the effect of currency movements


charts from equitable life are used as an illustration of sector performance comparisons only
and not as a commentary on their investment performance. no opinion is offered here either for or against equitable life as a pension company...

...they just happen to have these charts...
...which i find very helpful...
...when comparing sector fund performance...


...THEY IS A DISCLAIMER AT THE TOP O THE PAGE...

...THIS AINT ADVICE AN WE AINT IN BUSINESS...

...WE JUS SUCKERS LAK YOU...

...PISSIN INNA WIND...












Thursday, 18 December 2008

THE BOTTOM IS LOWER THAN YOU THINK


yo...good king 'flation last looked aht...innit..!


PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+90


...in palookaville we take Christmas seriously...


AFTER BATHING AT PETEY'S


petey : ahm sittin here inna loft...lookin aht ovva...a wurl wots change fo evva...


zooneh : yo painty dude...wot yo see inna bollox man?...


paintpetey : ...ahm readin a ticker innit! ...an ambrose, an mish, an nouriel,

an john authers, an edmund conway


zooneh : an what they say man?


plastered : ...they say it gon be lak 1873...little zoon dude!

...debt deflation...zirp...credit done peaked...dollar fallin...yen risin...

...carry trade f**ked...euro killin a Ezone...white pahnd...

...unemployment inna statosphere...

...we talkin deleveragin......demand destruction...seven years lean...


zoon : whoa there dude!...hyper-bole innit?


pistolpete : more lak f**kin super-bole...aint in it!...

...the bitch is back dude...it lakka prion protein!


zoon : wot?... lak at wot eats yo brain...turnin it ta sponge?


paintstationzebra : the very same prion bitch...

...the very thang wot ate yo brain...will eat yo banks...


SOMETHING INNA WAY HE...WRITES...

beulah : thrills me lak no other blogger...

'cat : painty tell it lak it be man...

spidah : he aint no dismal bollox...he can say wot he lak...

...he jus tell em lak he see em...


SHRINK 4

opkin : money aint wot it used ta be...time was yo could put it inna bank...

...an it were safe...they would pay yo interest onnit...

...ovva time it would grow some...

...nah it jus shrink...no intrest...

...it shrink inna 'vestments...yo bank go bust...yo shares wiped aht...

...price o stuff shrinkin...oil...cars...houses...commercial property...

...ME PENSION STASH...!


...ahm watchin mah dick...lakka ork...


Wednesday, 10 December 2008

SANTA, SANTA ONNA WALL...

yo!...jingle bells...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+82





petey : alla wan fo Christmas is me two fron teef...oh...anna rally inna shock an scares...


Q Ratio Signals ‘Horrific’ Market Bottom, CLSA Says



charts from equitable life are used as an illustration of sector performance comparisons only
and not as a commentary on their investment performance. no opinion is offered here either for or against equitable life as a pension company...

...they just happen to have these charts...
...which i find very helpful...
...when comparing sector fund performance...


...THEY IS A DISCLAIMER AT THE TOP O THE PAGE...

...THIS AINT ADVICE AN WE AINT IN BUSINESS...

...WE JUS SUCKERS LAK YOU...

...PISSIN INNA WIND...

Saturday, 6 December 2008

BEULAH'S DAY OFF

yo!...honey i shrunk yo stash...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+78


...in the loft...no one can hear you scream...

...the only sound is that of the gently fallin dust...

...petey anna crew is gone ta town...

...anna loft is empty...except of course fo beulah...who is takin this opportunity ta...

...check out petey's mac...fo cheatin or gamblin or...WTF is appnin ta her pension stash...


beulah : hi!...it me...BEULAH..!...that painty bastard be gone xmas shoppin atta 5 an dime...

laverne : (aht inna yard...firin up a still)...cheap n lazy...cheap an lazy bastard...

beulah : at somebitch gotta be upta sumpin...allas onna mac an chattin wi iz mates...

laverne : wot fo i gotta chop wood fo a still?

beulah : caint see no cheatin emails...an he aint gamblin...poker faced git!

...lets see if he don f**ked up me stash?...click...click...click...





beulah : WTF..!...wottit all mean?...wots me stash in?...


beulah : damn me eyes an blast me stupid curiosity...killed a cat...innit...

...caint let the git know i wuz spyin onnim... but mebbe i wuz...

...better off not knowin...hope ta God he...hedged my bets...


peteypainty : y'all don pay no tention ta lil ol beulah nah...she don mean no harm...

...she jus lak alla pension suckers out there...hopin fo a best...

...while...fearin fo a worst...

...fact is...alla suckers gotta watch they own backs...an guard they stash...

...nuthin stays the same fo long
...

...ya gotta know when ta hold em...an when ta fold em...

...the politix gotta index linked guaranteed stash...so they don care...

...the proper bollox...they jus gotta fill column inches...

...an deliver suckers ta a advertisers...

...that jus leaves you...sucker!



charts from equitable life are used as an illustration of sector performance comparisons only
and not as a commentary on their investment performance. no opinion is offered here either for or against equitable life as a pension company...

...they just happen to have these charts...
...which i find very helpful...
...when comparing sector fund performance...


...THEY IS A DISCLAIMER AT THE TOP O THE PAGE...

...THIS AINT ADVICE AN WE AINT IN BUSINESS...

...WE JUS SUCKERS LAK YOU...

...PISSIN INNA WIND...