THE BULLSHIT IS IN

yo!... wipe out... innit!

the palookaville index..

 .PALS

the palooka index guide..

follow the money

buy an hold..

buy the dick..

trash the cash..

panic early.. 

THE SHORT AN THE LONG OF IT

market watch..

  A big question to start the week is whether investors have gotten ahead of themselves..

after the S&P 500 managed its..

best weekly gain in 45 years 

as the Federal Reserve threw more money at the economy. 

Banks may have something to say about that Tuesday as they kick off earnings season..

shedding light on the damage that’s been done so far by the virus..

Our call of the day.. from a team of Goldman Sachs strategists led by David Kostin..

 says the worst of the market rout is behind us..

A “previous near-term downside of 2000 [for the S&P 500] is no longer likely..

Our year-end S&P 500 target remains 3000 (+8%),” says the team in a note to clients on Monday.

Why?

“The combination of unprecedented policy support..

 and a flattening viral curve..

have dramatically reduced downside risk for the U.S. economy..

and financial markets and lifted the S&P 500 out of bear market territory,” 

said Kostin..

 whose gloomy stock prediction from last month came..

the day before a complete market meltdown.

“If the U.S. does not experience a second surge in infections after the economy reopens..

 the ‘do whatever it takes’ stance of policy makers..

means the equity market..

is unlikely to make new lows,” 

said Kostin.

THE BOTTOM DROPS OUT OF THE TOP 

Market News Opinion

 

Published..

April 13, 2020 5:04 PM UTC

• Stock market analysts continue to set price targets for the Dow Jones..
•  
• and other indices amid the coronavirus-induced turmoil..
•  
• Economist Mohamed El-Erian says..
•  
• that there’s “no playbook” for predicting where the stock market will go next..

• He warns that the wild equities swings..
•  
• stem from rapidly-changing narratives – not fundamentals.

After the U.S. stock market recorded its best week in nearly five decades..

you’d be forgiven for thinking the Dow Jones was due for an encore..

But not even a historic oil production cut..

was enough to keep the risk-on mood intact..

ahead of what promises to be a grisly corporate earning season..

Unfortunately for investors..

economist Mohamed El-Erian says..

that these wild swings in market sentiment..

and asset valuations are the new normal..

And no matter what your favorite stock market forecaster claims..

absolutely nobody knows where the Dow goes from here.

El-Erian: 

There’s No Playbook for Stock Market Forecasts

 El-Erian..

the chief economic advisor at Allianz..

was one of the first high-profile economists to warn that..

 the coronavirus outbreak could..

trigger a stock market crash.

 

 THE BULLSHIT IS IN

 

Market NewsOpinion

Published:

April 13, 2020 5:04 PM UTC

‘No Playbook’: Economist Reveals Why Every Dow Jones Forecast Is BS

Forget what your favorite Dow Jones forecaster says. Economist Mohamed El-Erian warns there's "no playbook" for reading this stock market.

Josiah Wilmoth @Y3llowb1ackbird

Stock market forecasting has become less about analyzing economic fundamentals..

and almost entirely about guessing..

what medical and fiscal narratives are going to rule the day..

in both the short and long-term..

  Source: QE3/PIMCO REUTERS/Jason Reed

• Stock market analysts continue to set price targets..
•  
• for the Dow Jones and other indices..
•  
• amid the coronavirus-induced turmoil..
•  
• Economist Mohamed El-Erian says that there’s “no playbook” 
•  
• for predicting where the stock market will go next.
•  
• He warns that the wild equities swings stem from rapidly-changing narratives..
•  
•   not fundamentals.

El-Erian: 

There’s No Playbook for Stock Market Forecasts

El-Erian, the chief economic advisor at Allianz, 

was one of the first high-profile economists to warn that..

the coronavirus outbreak could trigger a stock market crash..

But given the peculiar environment that accompanied this historic downturn..

he says there’s..

 “no playbook” for forecasting a recovery.

In this environment of enormous uncertainty, nothing would surprise me..

 We need to be great health experts to predict the market..

And you need to get a feel for how far can the Fed go from here..

These are really big unknowns…

we have no playbook to guide us.

Fundamentals didn’t ignite the Dow’s fastest reversal in history..

nor did they catalyze the..

stock market’s most aggressive weekly rally since 1974..

Apocalyptic “narratives” drove the market down..

and – today’s reversal notwithstanding – 

a spate of rosier narratives..

helped stocks rally off their late March lows.

These markets, when they move, they move really quickly..

 And what do they move on?

A change in the governing narrative.

We are very sensitive to narratives.

The problem is that narratives don’t always jive with reality.

Nor is reality particularly easy to quantify reality these days anyway.

What Narrative Will Drive the Dow Next?

 

DANSE MACABRE

yo!...buggar thy neighbor...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
...capitulation day postponed...


...here in...

...palookaville...

...all bets are hedged...

...as we await the resumption of normal service...

...a V shaped recovery has been achieved in the financial markets...

...and the puppet masters have made loads-a-money...


IT TAKES ONE TO TANGO

...the states within the Eurodisunion...

...are locked in a dance of death...

...those that sell and those that buy...


...those who sell will not buy and those who buy must borrow to do so...

...those who lend fear they will not be repaid...

...the price of borrowing must rise for those who buy...

...those who sell...will not lend...

...round and round we go...

...until the music stops...

...when all must find a seat at the table...

...or fall to the floor...

...and must then sit out the game...

...in the corner...with the dunce's hat...


WE TWO KINGS


...Chi Na and Berlin...

...are kings of the castle...

...all the rest are dirty rascals...


STANDS WITH A BOWL

...our great leader...

...is asking for more...


...more time to rule...

...more money to spend...

...he can't get enough from all us palookas...

...so he stands with a bowl...

...begging for more money...

...so that he can pay the interest...

...on the money he has borrowed...

...mr bumble the beedle...

...wants to give him to the undertaker...

...who will bury him for good...


FATAL ATTRACTION

...but he just keeps emerging from the dead...

...consumate zombie that he is...

...the people of palookaville...

...will vote for death...

...so long as somebody else will pay for it...

BAGPIPE MUSIC

It's no go the merry-go-round, it's no go the rickshaw,
All we want is a limousine and a ticket for the peepshow.
Their knickers are made of crepe-de-chine, their shoes are made of python,
Their halls are lined with tiger rugs and their walls with head of bison.

John MacDonald found a corpse, put it under the sofa,
Waited till it came to life and hit it with a poker,
Sold its eyes for souvenirs, sold its blood for whiskey,
Kept its bones for dumbbells to use when he was fifty.

It's no go the Yogi-man, it's no go Blavatsky,
All we want is a bank balance and a bit of skirt in a taxi.

Annie MacDougall went to milk, caught her foot in the heather,
Woke to hear a dance record playing of Old Vienna.
It's no go your maidenheads, it's no go your culture,
All we want is a Dunlop tire and the devil mend the puncture.

The Laird o' Phelps spent Hogmanay declaring he was sober,
Counted his feet to prove the fact and found he had one foot over.
Mrs. Carmichael had her fifth, looked at the job with repulsion,
Said to the midwife "Take it away; I'm through with overproduction."

It's no go the gossip column, it's no go the Ceilidh,
All we want is a mother's help and a sugar-stick for the baby.

Willie Murray cut his thumb, couldn't count the damage,
Took the hide of an Ayrshire cow and used it for a bandage.
His brother caught three hundred cran when the seas were lavish,
Threw the bleeders back in the sea and went upon the parish.

It's no go the Herring Board, it's no go the Bible,
All we want is a packet of fags when our hands are idle.

It's no go the picture palace, it's no go the stadium,
It's no go the country cot with a pot of pink geraniums,
It's no go the Government grants, it's no go the elections,
Sit on your arse for fifty years and hang your hat on a pension.

It's no go my honey love, it's no go my poppet;
Work your hands from day to day, the winds will blow the profit.
The glass is falling hour by hour, the glass will fall forever,
But if you break the bloody glass you won't hold up the weather.

Louis Macneice

	Malcolm Evison (9/16/2005 9:59:00 AM)
	Humorous as it may be with regards to Class and social mores, flirtations with theosophy etc., one is brought up with a start... the realization that this was written in 1937 and, the more specific social unrest in Spain and Germany... the fall of the glass is unstoppable!

...petey...

the more things change...innit!

MAKE IT SO 如此做它

yo!...defying gravity...innit!

財務的PALOOKAVILLE

投降日347

bloomberg...Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- China’s stocks rose for a third day, driving the Shanghai Composite Index to its biggest gain in six months, on speculation regulators will adopt measures to boost the nation’s equities following declines in the past month...

...The government may take measures to stabilize the market before the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China on Oct. 1, the start of a weeklong holiday.

“They want everything to be stable and in harmony,” said Francis Lun, general manager of Fulbright Securities Ltd., in an interview with Bloomberg Television today. “They will approve more stock market funds and allow them to buy into the market.”...

...here in...

...palookagrad...

...all things are possible...

...but...

...most things are fixed...

...in theory...

...the gamblers bets should be winning all the time...

...except when they do not...

...of course...

...nobody knows when this must happen...

VD day

yo!...top...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL

capitulation day+345

...here in...

...palookaville...

...they think it's all over...

Now it’s looking like V for victory over recession

...everybody knows...

...government sucks...

WE HAVE WAYS OF MAKING YOU INVEST

...the souffle...

...will rise again...

...a recovery will be crammed down our throats...

...like it or not...

...he who prints the money...

...calls the shots...

VICTORY DEPRESSION DAY

...labor day to be renamed...

...every year the unemployed will get one day of work...

...it will mark the end of summer...

...the end of the recession that never was...

is it breakfast yet?

EARLY WARNING

yo...?

Palooka毕业财务

投降日313

...here in...

...palookagrad...

...all eyes are on...

...中国...

WATCH THIS VIDEO

...the short view...

petey : hope the translation is ok...used a mac widget...innit...!

Zombiegrad Spring

yo!...good news week...innit!

ZOMBIEGRAD FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+265...


...this morning...


...here in...


...zombiegrad...


...even the msb...


...are carryin the real news...


GERMAY F**KED


..."Paul Krugman: The "Nipponisation" of the world economy with a bunch of "Argentinafications" playing a role in the acute crisis. But even after those are over, we have the Nipponisation of the world economy. And that's really something.

Will Hutton: What was the heart of the Japanese problem? What was at the heart of their 17 years of going nowhere?

PK: Well, my guess is that it was that the balance-sheet problems took a very long time to resolve. And it is difficult to get enough demand in an economy where you have really very adverse demography ...

WH: So, which countries look closest to being Nipponised - combining balance-sheet problems and ageing populations?

PK: Well, the US doesn't have the same combination. But in Europe, Germany and Italy look comparable. France is better and Europe as a whole is considerably better.

WH: Germany matches Japan to an uncanny degree. You talk about the Nipponisation of the world economy: I'm not so sure. But I would talk about the Nipponisation of Europe via a German economy at its centre in the grip of the same problem - and that starts to be a global problem.

PK: Germany has huge inadequacy of domestic demand. Their economic recovery in the first seven years of this decade rested on the emergence of gigantic current account surplus.

How is it possible that Germany, which did not have a house price bubble, is having a steeper GDP fall than anyone else in the major economies?

The answer is that they depended upon exporting to the bubble regions of Europe, so they actually got side-swiped by the loss of those exports worse than the bubble regions themselves got hit.

It's Germany on a global scale that is the concern. We worry about the drag on world demand from the global savings coming out of east Asia and the Middle East, but within Europe there's a European savings glut which is coming out of Germany. And it's much bigger relative to the size of the economy.

WH: And on top there is an unique and unaddressed huge potential banking crisis. The Germans pride themselves on their three-legged banking system, but it is incredibly interlinked. The IMF warns that Germany could have to take at least $500bn of writedowns, which its banks have not begun to recognise. German banks hold a trillion dollars - maybe more - of maturing collateralised debt obligations that can only be refinanced by crystallising the losses. We've had RBS and you've had Citigroup. Germany's GDP will fall 6% this year - before the banking crisis has hit it....

...PK: That the cause is primarily financial. Certainly, Lehman and all of that alerted us all. And it did trigger an immediate drop in demand. But the housing bust was going to happen regardless.

The fall in business investment is at least to a large degree a response to excess capacity, which is the result of falling consumer demand and the housing bust. So we don't know.

WH: I think we know more than that. The links between bank capital, loan losses, credit availability and economic activity and asset prices have never been clearer. That was why there was a threat of Depression.

PK: Clearly, re-establishing stability in the financial markets is a necessary condition for recovery. But we're not sure it's sufficient.

WH: That's very scary.

PK: Well, that is part of the reason why I am so depressed.

WH: In one of your lecture charts you seemed to be suggesting that we're 12 months into what you think could be a 36-month period of downturn, albeit at a slower rate.

PK: Easily.

WH: It's quite shocking that you think it will be that severe.

petey : Im shocked that you're shocked...Will

PK: If we measure the 2001 US recession by when the labour market finally started to turn around, it was a 30-month recession. It was really 30 months in before you started to see the unemployment rate come down."

...guardian...

wolfgang in the FT...

..."The March signs of revival turned out to be little more than a technical inventory correction, with no change in the underlying trend. The world economy is still contracting, though perhaps not quite as fast as at the start of the year.

As an analysis by economists Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke* shows, global industrial output is still on the same trajectory as it was during 1930.

The only question is whether we can avoid 1931 and 1932.

The answer is yes, but on conditions that seem increasingly implausible if we extrapolate current policies. We can avoid calamity if monetary and fiscal policies remain supportive throughout the duration of this crisis, if we fix the banking system and if we impose regulations to constrain a resurgent financial sector. We also have to be lucky to avoid another round of market turbulence in the near future.

In other words ... the answer may well be no. Central banks and governments therefore risk moving too swiftly out of a recession-mode strategy. When Axel Weber, president of the Bundesbank, publicly talks at this time about how to communicate a rise in interest rates, it tells me that the danger of a premature exit, at least in Europe, is clear and present....

...So at this point, I see the chances as roughly even between a global slump and a return to quasi-stagnation. What is so galling about this scenario is that it is avoidable. The central banks took the right decisions. But the political reaction has been near-catastrophic almost everywhere.

Instead of solving the problems to generate a recovery, the political strategies have consisted of waiting for a recovery to solve the problem. The Europeans are relying on the Americans to generate growth. The Americans are relying on the Chinese, who in turn are waiting for the rest of the world.

Even if the US were to generate some growth, as is likely after this summer, it would not benefit global exporters; China may be one of the fastest growing economies in the world, but it is only about half as large as the eurozone in dollar terms. And as Brad Setser** has pointed out in his blog, there is absolutely no evidence that China contributes to a global recovery. While Chinese investments are up by more than 30 per cent from last year alone, imports are down 25 per cent. All this hype about decoupling and China pulling the world out of recession is baloney. The data tell us that China’s exports and imports are both falling, and that imports are falling faster.

As everybody expects the others to move first, nobody ends up moving. In the meantime, the problems grow worse. US house prices, which are down by a little over 30 per cent from their peak, still have some way to fall. Until the US housing market hits rock bottom, perhaps sometime in 2010, there is no chance of a recovery in the securitisation market, without which there may not be sufficient credit growth....

...The only potentially good news in the past three months has been the receding threat of a currency crisis in central and eastern Europe. But I am not even sure that this is for real. The persistent refusal by eurozone policymakers to concede fast-track euro accession for central and eastern member states could yet prove destabilising.

Last week, the ECB had to provide €3bn in euro liquidity to Sweden’s Riksbank, in the absence of which Sweden may have experienced its second banking meltdown in less than two decades. The inevitable collapse of Latvia will have ripple effects on the Baltic region and may cause panic among investors in other central and east European countries.

This is why last week’s news about the withering green shoots is so important.

It tells us that the non-strategy of waiting until things get better is not working.

The March signs of life reinforced complacency.

Optimism will get us out of this crisis only if it is founded in reality.

Last week showed us that this is not the case."

...FT...

..."Neil Mackinnon, chief economist at ECU Group, said Washington believes European states are "free riding" on American stimulus, expecting the US to pull them out of crisis yet again.

Europe's industrial output continued to slide in April and was down 22pc from a year earlier, suggesting that talk of a "V-shaped" rebound is premature. At best, the pace of decline has slowed. Production fell 23pc in Germany and 24pc in Italy.

The ECB expects the eurozone economy to contract by 4.6pc this year and a further 0.3pc next year, with no recovery until mid-2010.

Structural rigidities of the region raise risks that it will remain trapped in slump well after the rest of the world has turned the corner, as it did after the dotcom bust.

This time Europe faces the extra head-winds of a strong euro, over-valued against the 45-odd countries such as China that are linked to the dollar. This currency effect is slowly "hollowing out" Europe's industrial core...."

...ambrose...

...oh yeah!..

...an this...

Vigilante Man

yo!..million pound note...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+249...

...nobody here in palookaville...


...knows anything about bonds...




THE END OF MORAL HAZARD


...but we know about debt...


...bad debtors pay more...


...credit is...


...where credit is due...


FEAR OF 'FLATION


...he who pays the piper...


...calls the tune...


...not so good when you're in a hole...


STOP DIGGING


..."The Treasury bond sell-off is now putting pressures on other markets in the economy. We should worry most about housing where borrowing rates are rising notwithstanding the Federal Reserve purchase programme. Indeed, according to data released on Thursday, already 12pc of US households are facing difficulties meeting their mortgage payments.

Housing is still central to the stabilisation and eventual recovery of the US and global economies. Any further decline in house prices will erode the collateral many Americans borrowed against, dampen their already-fragile consumption appetite, and increase the headwinds facing a banking system that is finally regaining its footing. The US can ill-afford a further sell-off in US bonds at this stage in the economy's rehabilitation process. Yet there is no easy way for policymakers to address this challenge.

As an illustration, consider the dilemma facing the Federal Reserve. Should the central bank step up its purchases of both Treasuries and mortgages in order to stabilise interest rates, but at the risk of adding to the distortions in these markets; or should it refrain from intervening further and risk a return of widespread economic and financial disruptions?

I suspect that, when push comes to shove, policymakers will opt for greater purchases of mortgages and Treasuries – not because they really want to, but because the alternative is viewed as worse.

Believe it or not, there is a silver lining in all this. As they contemplate this difficult situation, they can draw some comfort from one thing: with the anchoring of the short-term policy rate near 0pc, the steepening of the yield curve is generating significant profits for banks.

Remember, banking is fundamentally about mobilising cheap deposits (at the short end of the curve) and, supported by deposit insurance and central bank liquidity windows, lending at the longer-end of the yield curve. Come to think of it, the smartest trade for investors today is to find a bank that, unencumbered by legacy issues, is able to take advantage of an enormously attractive environment for old-style banking."

...Mohamed El-Erian is chief executive of Pimco....

CHERCHEZ LA FEMME


...or...


...follow the money...


...me...


...I wonder about the banks, the shadow banks, and the men that run them...


...has it all been deliberate?...


...surely not...


...who would benefit...?


..." For a long time, this column has warned that the bond-market vigilantes would ultimately rebel against the Western world's profligate borrowing and spending – not least the ill-judged, cowardly and ultimate grotesque "bail-out" packages for well-connected banks that should anyway be allowed to fail...."

...Liam Halligan...

In Danger of Talking Ourselves Out of Recession

yo!...credit is debt...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+210...


...here in palookaville...

...the talk is all about the green shoots...


THEY THINK IT'S ALL OVER...


...of course they don't...


...but...


...what they think and what they say...


...are two different things...


THE BANKS ARE BUST


...this is not often alluded to...


...there will be no return to boom...


...this time it really is different...


ONCE BITTEN, TWICE SHY


...they say that the consumer will return...

...that banks will lend as before...

...that people will borrow again...

...like they did last summer...


...i don't think so...

We are not even half-way through the

banking crisis - IMF

..."The simple truth is laid out in page 33 of the Global Financial Stability Report , published today in Washington: "if banks were to bring forward to today loss provisions for the next two years, before expected earnings, US and European banks in aggregate would have tangible equity close to zero."In other words, the entire global banking system would be bankrupt - kaput - if its institutions immediately wrote off all the toxic assets still sitting in their vaults without any government assistance...." Telegraph...


...this from the big picture...

..."So we keep the system going. Now, where are we today?

We are at the Great Deleveraging.

We are seeing massive losses and destruction of assets, on a scale that is unprecedented. There was massive destruction of assets during the Great Depression, which caused a lot of problems, and we are seeing the same thing today. We are watching trillions simply being poofed (another technical economics term — which will drive my poor Chinese translator crazy!). We are watching people pay down their credit lines, which is one way of saying the supply of money and credit is shrinking.

This is not just in the US, but all over the world. Because when you start adding European cash-to-credit, and Japanese cash-to-credit, and Indonesian and Chinese cash-to-credit, it becomes multiple tens of trillions, and we are watching a goodly portion of that credit be vaporized. So we — individuals and businesses — are trying to find that $2 trillion in real cash and get some of it to pay down our debts. We are reducing that massive leveraged money supply down to some smaller number. We are hitting the Blue Screen of Death. We don’t know what it is going to reset to, but we have permanently seared the psyche of the American consumer, and it is going to get reset to some lower number, about which I will speculate in a minute.

Now to give you some idea of how important credit was in our recent period of economic growth — and I keep using this slide, but it is an important slide because it shows you what would have happened in the economy without mortgage equity withdrawals. The red lines are what GDP would have been without MEWs. Notice that in 2001 and 2002 we would have had negative GDP for two years, that’s 24 months. It would have been as long as or longer than the current recession. Not quite as deep, because we had the Bush stimulus and Bush tax cuts at the time. The Bush tax cuts were very important in keeping the economy rolling over in 2001 and 2002.

But notice that the recovery for the next four years would have been under 1%. We would have had under 1% GDP for four years running, without mortgage equity withdrawals, without people being able to spend more. That doesn’t even count the leverage we increased on our auto loans, on credit cards — you saw the two charts that Louie [Gave] and Martin [Barnes] used yesterday about the growth of credit, and we are now seeing it in reverse. Do you think George Bush would have stood even a small chance of being reelected without mortgage equity withdrawals?

GREEN SHOOTS

..."The force that through the green fuse drives the flower
Drives my green age; that blasts the roots of trees
Is my destroyer...." dylan thomas


...IT IS NOW

..."In other words, if you thought the immense amounts of taxpayer cash funnelled into the system over the past couple of years was enough to bring us back to good health, think again.

It is an extremely worrying verdict, particularly coming at a time when many had been assuming that green shoots were starting to sprout and the recession was coming to an end.

But it underlines one simple but undeniable truth:

that this recession is different.

It is the consequence not of a simple one-nation housing crash or a consumer slowdown but a catastrophic collapse of the financial system. And with that system still in a wreck normal service will simply not be resumed without more costly bail-outs - or else we must accept the consequence that money will be far more expensive to borrow in the future, and that economic growth will be far less in the future." Telegraph...edmond conway blog...

petey : it were me wot done the italics an stuff...

REMEMBER POMPEII

yo!...only fallin ashes...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+192...


...here in palookaville they think it's all over...

...stock markets have rallied 20%...

...and a bank has passed a stress test...


...deflation has failed to raise it's head in the rigged figures...

...and the value of retail sales rose a bit...


...under the carpet there are so many things...

...and soon people will begin to trip up...



DO AS I SAY NOT AS I DO


...by saving banks and automakers...

...governments have fallen into the protectionist trap...

...the game is rigged...

...always was...

...while all was going up...


...no one seemed to mind...


...now though...


...people have started to notice...



CLUSTER'S LAST STAND


...many here in palookaville...

...have their hopes pinned on the G20 clusterf*ck...


...divided they stand...

...rather than united they fall...


...well...

...we'll see...


DISMAL SCIENCE

...everyone said there would be no recession and that the financial crisis...

...would stay in the bank vaults...

...well...

...what the f*ck do they know?...


GLOBAL AND LOCAL


...world trade has collapsed...

...because the bank credits are unavailable...

...boeing has seen orders fall by 50%...

...ships lie idle in the harbour roads...



UNLIKE GERMANY


...they told us that we were failing...

...because we didn't make stuff and export it...

...unlike germany...

...we were house mad...

...unlike germany...

...we spent beyond our means...

...piled up debt...

...unlike germany...


...well...


...you know the rest...

THEY WILL NEVER ALLOW THIS ON THE BBC

yo!...stands with a bowl...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+190...



...here in palookaville all we watch is the msm...

...which is why this will not be seen by the voters...

THE CALL OF THE WILD ONE

yo!...cool fo cats...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+152...


...here in palookaville we take our stash seriously...

...we always lookin out fo squalls...


...we usta read the msm until the blogs got goin...


...this bloke bill adlard usta get a shout...

...inna paper called 'the business'...

...me an beulah usta like it a lot...


ANYWAY

...this bill geezer was always bangin on about a commin crash...

...an you know me...

...ol misery guts...innit!...


...I knew he would be right sooner or later...

...itz a pity that 'the business' went out of...


...but here is bill...

FTSE 100 'to fall by more than 40%'

Philip Scott, This is Money
21 January 2008

Reader comments (7)

The double whammy of poor economic data and the ongoing global credit crunch drove the FTSE 100 into meltdown today, wiping off some £60bn in shares - the steepest fall since 9/11 in 2001.

And one industry expert is urging investors to prepare for more sharp falls and a return to the lows of the bear market between 2000 and 2003.

Bill Adlard, a professional trader and market analyst at Chart-Guide.com, is urging investors to get into cash as soon as possible because he fears the FTSE 100 will soon start on a downward trajectory that will take the index back to its lows of 2003 – a fall of more than 40%.

He says: 'The world is heading for a major economic depression. The FTSE 100 is going to fall back to its lows of 2003.

'My advice to investors is to get in to cash and stay there as it will be the asset class that outperforms all others over the next five years.'

'Previously, back in 2003 there was a massive credit expansion but now we are heading for a credit contraction. The major difference is that in 2003 debt was lower and if prices fell it didn't necessarily mean that people had to sell.

'But since then there has been a credit binge resulting in the massive inflation of debt and as such there will have to be a lot of selling if it is to be paid off.'

It took just over three years and three months for the FTSE 100 to bottom out during the last bear market.

On 30 December 1999 at the height of the technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) boom, the index of the UK's largest firms peaked at 6930.2 – but by 12 March 2003 the index had plummeted by more than 50% to 3287.

Adlard added: 'The FTSE 100 will fall again over the same time period, if not sooner.' "

petey : nice one bill.!...


...disclaimer...

...this aint no advert an no bollox...

...read the disclaimers at the top an find yo own stuff out...


STOP THE PRESS


...ah found anuvva one...

'Footsie to fall 90% from all-time high'

Philip Scott, This is Money
28 January 2009

Reader comments (19)

The severity of the ongoing economic and market torment has now led one analyst to forecast that the FTSE 100 index could plummet to below the 1000 level in the coming years.

Bill Adlard, a professional trader and market analyst, at Chart-Guide.com gave This is Money, the most gloomy - but notably the most accurate - forecast for how the index would fare in 2008.

Now Adlard says: 'I believe over the coming five years the FTSE 100 could fall by around 90% - from its all time high in 1999 of 6930. It could easily be below 1000 in five years time.

'The UK market will reflect what happened in the US between 1929 and 1932 when the Dow Jones dropped by 90% from 397 to 40 points. I expect something of the same from the Footsie.'

Speaking to This is Money 12 months ago, Adlard said that given the coupling of poor economic data and the ongoing global credit crunch, he believed that the index could pull back to its lows of 2003 – a fall of more than 40%.

In early trading on 10 October, 2008, the Footsie, had collapsed to 3873 - a fall of 40% since the start of the year - and Adlard's prediction had come to fruition.

By the year's end, the index had clawed back some of its fall and finished 31% down over the 12 months.

At mid morning trading on 28 January, 2009, the Footsie was at 4266.31. On 31 December 2007, the index was riding far higher at 6457 – giving a fall of 34% in the past 13 months. It hit its all time high of 6930, back on 31 December 1999, and today's level exemplifies a drop of 38% since then.

For the rest of 2009, Adlard expects the index of the UK's top 100 firms to 'thrash about between 4,500 and 3,500' before ultimately crashing through the lower barrier.

petey : only time will tell...innit!


...disclaimer...

...this aint no advert an no bollox...

...read the disclaimers at the top an find yo own stuff out...

MONDAY MONDAY

yo!... mystery tour...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+150...


...try as we they may...

...the committee cannot stop the market from falling ...


...maybe...

...sometime over the weekend...

...some of the bust banks will be nationalised...


...and...


...we will see the dead cat bounce...


...but...


...a lower low looks likely...


ALL TOGETHER NOW


You say buy, I say no

You say why, and I say I don't know
Oh, no

You see a high and I see a low
A lower low

I don't know why you see a high
I see a low

A lower low
I don't know why you see a high
I see a low