capitulation day
+152...
...here in palookaville we take our stash seriously...
...we always lookin out fo squalls...
...we usta read the msm until the blogs got goin...
...this bloke bill adlard usta get a shout...
...inna paper called 'the business'...
...me an beulah usta like it a lot...
ANYWAY
...this bill geezer was always bangin on about a commin crash...
...an you know me...
...ol misery guts...innit!...
...I knew he would be right sooner or later...
...itz a pity that 'the business' went out of...
...but here is bill...
FTSE 100 'to fall by more than 40%'
Philip Scott, This is Money21 January 2008
The double whammy of poor economic data and the ongoing global credit crunch drove the FTSE 100 into meltdown today, wiping off some £60bn in shares - the steepest fall since 9/11 in 2001.
And one industry expert is urging investors to prepare for more sharp falls and a return to the lows of the bear market between 2000 and 2003.
Bill Adlard, a professional trader and market analyst at Chart-Guide.com, is urging investors to get into cash as soon as possible because he fears the FTSE 100 will soon start on a downward trajectory that will take the index back to its lows of 2003 – a fall of more than 40%.
He says: 'The world is heading for a major economic depression. The FTSE 100 is going to fall back to its lows of 2003.
'My advice to investors is to get in to cash and stay there as it will be the asset class that outperforms all others over the next five years.'
'Previously, back in 2003 there was a massive credit expansion but now we are heading for a credit contraction. The major difference is that in 2003 debt was lower and if prices fell it didn't necessarily mean that people had to sell.
'But since then there has been a credit binge resulting in the massive inflation of debt and as such there will have to be a lot of selling if it is to be paid off.'
It took just over three years and three months for the FTSE 100 to bottom out during the last bear market.
On 30 December 1999 at the height of the technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) boom, the index of the UK's largest firms peaked at 6930.2 – but by 12 March 2003 the index had plummeted by more than 50% to 3287.
Adlard added: 'The FTSE 100 will fall again over the same time period, if not sooner.' "
petey : nice one bill.!...
...disclaimer...
...this aint no advert an no bollox...
...read the disclaimers at the top an find yo own stuff out...
STOP THE PRESS
...ah found anuvva one...
'Footsie to fall 90% from all-time high'
Philip Scott, This is Money28 January 2009
The severity of the ongoing economic and market torment has now led one analyst to forecast that the FTSE 100 index could plummet to below the 1000 level in the coming years.
Bill Adlard, a professional trader and market analyst, at Chart-Guide.com gave This is Money, the most gloomy - but notably the most accurate - forecast for how the index would fare in 2008.
Now Adlard says: 'I believe over the coming five years the FTSE 100 could fall by around 90% - from its all time high in 1999 of 6930. It could easily be below 1000 in five years time.
'The UK market will reflect what happened in the US between 1929 and 1932 when the Dow Jones dropped by 90% from 397 to 40 points. I expect something of the same from the Footsie.'
Speaking to This is Money 12 months ago, Adlard said that given the coupling of poor economic data and the ongoing global credit crunch, he believed that the index could pull back to its lows of 2003 – a fall of more than 40%.
In early trading on 10 October, 2008, the Footsie, had collapsed to 3873 - a fall of 40% since the start of the year - and Adlard's prediction had come to fruition.
By the year's end, the index had clawed back some of its fall and finished 31% down over the 12 months.
At mid morning trading on 28 January, 2009, the Footsie was at 4266.31. On 31 December 2007, the index was riding far higher at 6457 – giving a fall of 34% in the past 13 months. It hit its all time high of 6930, back on 31 December 1999, and today's level exemplifies a drop of 38% since then.
For the rest of 2009, Adlard expects the index of the UK's top 100 firms to 'thrash about between 4,500 and 3,500' before ultimately crashing through the lower barrier.
petey : only time will tell...innit!
...disclaimer...
...this aint no advert an no bollox...
...read the disclaimers at the top an find yo own stuff out...
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