SLICK OIL : THE BOOM THAT WAS

yo!.. sick not slick... innit!

 

 

dig this man..

 

they want ta fill..

 

the great palookaville lake..

 

with something so crude..

 

it will kill alla fish..

 

this calls fo a mass debate..

 

 

THE GREAT OIL SPILL

 naked capitalism -

 

We will never let the great U.S. Oil & Gas Industry down. I have instructed the Secretary of Energy and Secretary of the Treasury to formulate a plan which will make funds available so that these very important companies and jobs will be secured long into the future!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 21, 2020

Also on Tuesday, the Texas Railroad Commission punted on the idea of mandating production cuts. Two of the three commissioners were uneasy with the idea of voting on the proposal. Ryan Sitton, the one commissioner in favor of requiring a 20 percent cut in the state’s production, argued that not voting was itself a decision, allowing the market to mete out production cuts in a disorderly fashion. “I don’t believe that inaction on our part is acceptable,” Sitton said.

Meanwhile, there are other ideas for government intervention. The oil and gas industry is lobbying the Federal Reserve to loosen its $600 billion lending facility to allow drillers to use funds to repay debt, according to Reuters.

In addition, the “Treasury [Department] could guarantee loans to distressed firms in return for equity stakes or senior debt, and Washington could use its voting shares to compel shut-ins (i.e., as part of a bargain with OPEC+),” ClearView Energy Partners wrote in a note to clients.

While the oil market drowns in oversupply, there also seems to be a glut of unusual policy responses coming from Washington aimed at bailing out the industry.

But in the face of demand destruction on the order of 25 to 30 million barrels per day (mb/d), there is very little that the U.S. government can do to head off steep production losses and bankruptcies.
 

mish -

My Plan

• Stop the bailouts.
• Let the oil speculators go bankrupt.
• Let the financers take it on the chin as well.

When Does the Crash Stop?

1. When producers stop drilling oil that is not needed.
2. When the speculators putting on "paper oil" trades get wiped out.

Paper Oil
Oil is another example of leveraged trades. Even more so than gold, speculators will not take delivery.
For discussion of delivery issues related to gold, please see Gold "What If?" Silliness
Only Plan We Need
It's time for personal responsibility, not bailouts of favored industries.
That's the only plan we need.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Sechel

comments on mish site

 

 Not that it would matter I think but those production cuts Trump negotiated don't take effect for a while. OPEC is meeting to enact them sooner.

Now for the silliness.

Trump wants to buy oil from U.S. producers that they keep in the ground and safe keep for the U.S. Good luck keeping track of that. 

 Seems like a cash gift

Trump is also toying with the idea of an embargo on Saudi oil purchases.

There won't be any demand until world economies start opening up again. 

We're talking a few months but it won't be like before. 

Silly for governments, our government to try and stand in front of this. 

We need to let this play out. 

Market will address it. 

High cost sites will cap wells. 

If some firms go out of business, the oil will still be there or creditors take over the company. 

We don't need to bail out hedge funds and stock holders.

Market is projecting prices recover somewhat in a few months. 

 Politicians should make note of that

 of two minds -

Being honest is painful but freeing. Once all the ugliness is exposed to sunlight, then healing becomes possible. As long as reality is cloaked, hidden, explained away, etc., the destruction only deepens until complete collapse of the masquerade is the only possible outcome.

We've reached that point: we can no longer deny the U.S. economy is little more than a grab-bag of skims, scams, fraud and corruption. Even if Covid-19 vanished from the Earth tomorrow, or the entire economy opened tomorrow, the collapsing of the fraud bubble cannot be reversed, any more than the addict can be "cured" with some makeup to mask the devastation and clean clothing to hide all the tracks.

Let's start with the most risible fraud: "value." Every skim and scam claims to be "creating value" for shareholders, customers, the planet, etc. But it's all fraud and lies. No value is being created; what's really happening is entrenched insiders have established corrupt relationships that funnel income streams into their own pockets at the expense of everyone else, who must be kept in the dark about how the skim/scam actually works.

 

We don't just have financial bubbles that are popping; we have bubbles in trust and credibility that are popping, too. All the lies, skims, scams, excuses, frauds, bezzles, artifices, profiteering, promotional schemes and rackets are unraveling, not because the virus shut down the economy but because the enormity of all the corruption, lies and fraud is now so great that the entire status quo is collapsing under its own weight.

 

THE CENTRAL SCRUTINIZER

 heh heh heh..

 so ya see..

here in palookaville..

we got alla bases covered..

heads we win..

 tales you lose..

innit!

 

 

 

Vigilante Man

yo!..million pound note...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+249...

...nobody here in palookaville...


...knows anything about bonds...




THE END OF MORAL HAZARD


...but we know about debt...


...bad debtors pay more...


...credit is...


...where credit is due...


FEAR OF 'FLATION


...he who pays the piper...


...calls the tune...


...not so good when you're in a hole...


STOP DIGGING


..."The Treasury bond sell-off is now putting pressures on other markets in the economy. We should worry most about housing where borrowing rates are rising notwithstanding the Federal Reserve purchase programme. Indeed, according to data released on Thursday, already 12pc of US households are facing difficulties meeting their mortgage payments.

Housing is still central to the stabilisation and eventual recovery of the US and global economies. Any further decline in house prices will erode the collateral many Americans borrowed against, dampen their already-fragile consumption appetite, and increase the headwinds facing a banking system that is finally regaining its footing. The US can ill-afford a further sell-off in US bonds at this stage in the economy's rehabilitation process. Yet there is no easy way for policymakers to address this challenge.

As an illustration, consider the dilemma facing the Federal Reserve. Should the central bank step up its purchases of both Treasuries and mortgages in order to stabilise interest rates, but at the risk of adding to the distortions in these markets; or should it refrain from intervening further and risk a return of widespread economic and financial disruptions?

I suspect that, when push comes to shove, policymakers will opt for greater purchases of mortgages and Treasuries – not because they really want to, but because the alternative is viewed as worse.

Believe it or not, there is a silver lining in all this. As they contemplate this difficult situation, they can draw some comfort from one thing: with the anchoring of the short-term policy rate near 0pc, the steepening of the yield curve is generating significant profits for banks.

Remember, banking is fundamentally about mobilising cheap deposits (at the short end of the curve) and, supported by deposit insurance and central bank liquidity windows, lending at the longer-end of the yield curve. Come to think of it, the smartest trade for investors today is to find a bank that, unencumbered by legacy issues, is able to take advantage of an enormously attractive environment for old-style banking."

...Mohamed El-Erian is chief executive of Pimco....

CHERCHEZ LA FEMME


...or...


...follow the money...


...me...


...I wonder about the banks, the shadow banks, and the men that run them...


...has it all been deliberate?...


...surely not...


...who would benefit...?


..." For a long time, this column has warned that the bond-market vigilantes would ultimately rebel against the Western world's profligate borrowing and spending – not least the ill-judged, cowardly and ultimate grotesque "bail-out" packages for well-connected banks that should anyway be allowed to fail...."

...Liam Halligan...

THEY WILL NEVER ALLOW THIS ON THE BBC

yo!...stands with a bowl...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+190...



...here in palookaville all we watch is the msm...

...which is why this will not be seen by the voters...

BYE BYE EURO GOODBYE

yo!...free meal deal...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+153...


..all the talk here in palookaville is about...

...the euro...


WHO PAYS THE PIPER...INNIT!


...will it be saved by german largesse?...

...or sunk by revolt at german diktat?...




...don't panic! don't panic!...


...they won't like it up em!...

...who the germans or the 'others'..?


...this thing has further to run...

...has legs as they say...

...everybody march in step...


...and don't mention the goose..!.



HOLIDAY OF HOLIDAYS


...beulah an me are lookin forward...

...to more holidays in italy and spain...


...it really is ridiculous that we should have to buy euros...

...to spend there...

...what idiot made prices the same in all the european countries???

...but not wages!..?


...we want our cheap holidays back...

...and you want to keep your jobs...


...so come on guys...

...get with the plan...

...bring on the lire and peseta..

...set your own interest rates...

...and float...


...let the market decide what your currency is worth...


YOU KNOW IT MAKES SENSE


...so what is wrong with flexibility?...

...if the trees don't bend in the wind...

...they snap...


...we love to visit you and eat your food...

...but you are pricing us out of your market..


...let the germans and the french...

...be the expensive destinations...

...

THE DEPRESSIONIST MASTERPIECE

yo!...every picture tells a story...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+139...

NB chart is uk based and funds reflect the effect of currency movements

charts from equitable life are used as an illustration of sector performance comparisons only
and not as a commentary on their investment performance. no opinion is offered here either for or against equitable life as a pension company...

...they just happen to have these charts...
...which i find very helpful...
...when comparing sector fund performance...

...THERE IS A DISCLAIMER AT THE TOP O THE PAGE...

...THIS AINT ADVICE AN WE AINT IN BUSINESS...

...WE JUS SUCKERS LAK YOU...

...PISSIN INNA WIND...

NOW IS THE WINTER OF OUR DISCONTENT...

yo!...costa packet...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+134...


...nobody expected the spanish implosion.!.


...here in palookaville the traffic has ground to a halt...

...the wrong kind of money has brought the economy to a standstill...


...the brown boom...

...is over at last...

...now!...if only they can end the...

...brown bust.!.

Car sales plunge in worst figures since 1974

"Luxury car sales suffered most, with sales falling 65 per cent, compared to a year ago.

Fleet sales, which account for 60 per cent of the total market, fell by 35 per cent as the economic downturn forced companies to cut back on transport for staff.

It was the ninth successive month that sales have fallen compared to the previous year, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said.

The continuing slump in car sales comes after months of cutbacks within the industry with a wave of redundancies and extended factory closures...."telegraph

THE NOBEL PRIZE IS NOT WHAT IT WAS



...anatole is predicting a nobel prize for brown...

...after all not many enelected prime ministers have a patsy chancellor...

...our nobel dictator has created a spectacular bust...


...and should get some sort of recognition for it...


DEPRESSIONISM : THE ART OF THE BUST


...when peter the paintpallet started a new art movement...

...he did not realise that he would get a show so soon...

...now all the world is joining in the fun...

...currencies are out doing each other to debase themselves at his feet...

...zombie banks are casting out the demon hearsts...

...and hanging the painted one's depressionist masterpieces...

...from their atrium roofs...


DOWN IN THE JUNGLE, GOT THE BELLYACHE...


...down in the vaults the canvases are stacking up...

...toxic and unpredictable art for the new, bust millenium...

...their value rises as the other toxic assets deflate...

...paint is the future...

...for the new bust...


FORCAST NEWS


...suckers are still bettin the bust is past it's sell by...

...they think itz all over...

...normal service will be resumed and the paintings of doom...

...will be cast out of the galleries...


...but the fat lady is still waiting to sing...

...and she will not be denied...

...you can dance the danse macarbre...

...and drink the night away...

...talk yourself up till dawn...


...but...


...she will sing...

US Treasury in plans for record debt sale

"The US Treasury on Wednesday opened the floodgates of government bond issuance, revealing plans for a record debt sale in February and more frequent auctions in the months to come.

The announcement came amid growing fears about US government deficits and sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rising to 2.95 per cent, up from just over 2 per cent at the end of December.

The rise in Treasury yields has been pushing mortgage rates higher, complicating efforts to revive the economy. The US Federal Reserve said last week it was “prepared to” buy Treasuries if that would be a “particularly effective” way of reducing private borrowing costs.

“The Fed has to be troubled by the fact that mortgage rates have been rising and the buying of Treasuries by the Fed may come sooner than the market expects,” said William O’Donnell, UBS strategist"...FT

THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE


iain martin..."When a great many lies have been told, the antidote is usually truth. This can hurt, but without it the possibility of recovery and future happiness is remote. And so it is with today's crisis of capitalism.

If an excess of debt built with cheap money was the cause of the crisis – and it was – then more debt is not the answer. Aligning their party with this most basic but vital of insights was, as the essential Tory website Conservative Home put it, "Cameron and Osborne's bravest and loneliest decision". When the Tory leadership decided to oppose Gordon Brown's plans to borrow and spend his way out of the "Depression", as the Prime Minister called it yesterday in a revealing slip of the tongue, they were virtually alone in the western world." times

LITTLE HOUSE ONNA PRAIRIE

yo!...happy days...innit!


PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+93


ponzi : heyyyyyyyyyyy?

richie : hey ponzie...how come everyone stopped shoppin man?

ralf malf : yeahhhhhhh...crummy Christmas anna sucking new yeah...

potsie : whooeeee ponzi i think my strings have snapped...


ponzi : y'all jus stop suckin dudes...i gotta scheme ta get us outa this jam...


THE PONZI CHAPEL CEILING


paintybollox : shoot! ....ah jus bin onna ticker blog...anna bin shocked and awed...

zooneh : wot fo yo bin frazzled man?

beulah : at f**kin ticker jus blowin offa steam innit? ...he allus inna bate...

laverne : ah dunno beulie babe him n mish be two offa best bloggers onna planet...

spidah : onna web yo kin scare yo self...iffn yo aint street smart...


peteyangelo : that ole ticker gotta ponzi scheme all laid bare...itta woik o art...


ticker : ..."This is an uncomfortable reality, but it is reality.

Mr. Madoff stands accused of (in his own words) running "a Ponzi Scheme."

In fact, our entire economy over the last ten years, and really back to at least 1987, has been roughly equivalent to what Mr. Madoff was doing.

So has our government.

Let's go down the list of things that have been inflated beyond their natural boundaries, and look at how each and every one of them was destined to collapse - and why they're all collapsing at once:

• The Internet Bubble.
• The Housing Bubble.
• The Stock and Credit Markets Generally.
• Our Government's Finances.
  

There are many who say that our government debt-bubble will not collapse, and they list a whole host of reasons.

Why would you believe that?

Can you show, through history, one speculative bubble that has not popped?

Can you find one time - just once - that such a bubble was able to be grown without limit?

Simply put: No......

.......Americans have, as a nation, become fat, dumb, "entitled" and lazy.

There are many who argue that those who live "hand to mouth" don't have that choice. Really? Here are two statistics that make clear that this is simply false:

• In 2003 there were 159 million cell phone subscribers in the United States, and the average monthly bill was $49.91. Penetration has since grown to approximately 70% of the population (from ~60% in 2003.) Since 25% of all persons are under the age of 18, the majority of the non-subscribers to cellular services are in fact children under the age of 10.
• In 2002 58 percent of persons age 18 and over were overweight, and 23 percent were considered medically obese.

.....So in fact we have two "inconvenient facts" that contradict the claim that those who live "hand to mouth" and yet are working could not save for their retirement and old age if they decided to do so - the first being that they spend nearly $600 a year on cellular service - a luxury, and the second being that nearly 6 in 10 are consuming significantly more food (and paying for it) than their body demands for metabolic balance......

.........As the embedded (and fraudulently-concealed) debt continued to mount banks and other institutions found themselves performing a Madoff - that is, issuing new credit (debt) to be able to "show earnings" that in fact were a phantom. Unlike Madoff they did not have to go find someone new to put money in to be able to issue the checks to existing investors, since a bank that can operate with no reserve requirements imposed on it is capable of issuing as much credit as it wants, effectively "printing money."

.....Regulations and leverage limits are supposed to prevent this, but they were systematically and intentionally dismantled in the name of "financial innovation."

In truth they were dismantled in the name of a massive financial fraud that permeated every corner of our credit system, from credit cards to student loans to automobiles to housing.

This ponzi scheme even extended to individual consumers - that is, you.

If you HELOC'd out money and paid down your credit cards with it, then charged anew or cash-out refinanced, you were a Madoff. If you bought a house with an Option ARM, knowing full well you could not make make a fully-amortized "recast" payment, you were a Madoff. If you played the balance transfer game with your credit cards, rolling balances from one zero-interest offer to another, you were a Madoff. Tens of millions of Americans did one or more of these things - and each and every one of them - if not you then someone you knew - was running a personal version of Madoff's scheme.

Every organ of our government and regulatory system was involved in this knowing deceit and the complicity required for it to occur - Congress, The White House, Treasury, The Federal Reserve - and still is.

So why did the bubble collapse, if these institutions are able to continue to literally "print money" and the regulators were intentionally ignoring all of it?

The fundamental problem with all Ponzi Schemes, even those in which the operator is able to issue credit at will, is that it relies on people not challenging the books.

It requires "belief" - that is, confidence.

Thus the phrase "con game".

When Bear Stearns two hedge funds collapsed, the house of cards began to shake. People started looking at balance sheets and asking lots of very inconvenient questions, including exactly how one can have a mortgage-backed security rated "AAA" when 40% of the loans in it are either delinquent or in foreclosure. A few people started to listen to those who had analyzed the math, such as myself and Mish, and the light came on in their head - "Oh My God, they're right!"

See, while credit spends like money, it is not money. ........

.............You would think that Bernanke and Paulson would recognize what is going on - and that they are unable to stop the inevitable collapse.

Here's the problem - they do recognize it, but they are two of the architects of it, and admitting the truth means taking responsibility for what they have done.

That's not going to happen so long as they believe they can manage to keep the "con" going with someone.

The group of "someone's", however, is shrinking rapidly. Commercial and Investment bank loans, then Fannie and Freddie, then commercial paper issuers, and now various sorts of consumer loan products such as credit cards, automobile financing and student loans are all being shunned by those with actual money as they start to peek under the kimono and find not a pleasant sight but rather something both ugly and hairy staring back at them.

Thus, the transfer of all of this "credit" (really bad debt) no longer backed by money (as the producers have taken their ball and left) from the institutions that created the ponzi scheme to "the sovereign" - the Government - in all of its forms, whether it be Treasury or The Fed directly.

The latest announcement came on Friday, when The Fed loosened the terms of the TALF (one of its alphabet soup programs) and effectively allowed hedge funds to borrow from it.

This, incidentally, is why Bloomberg has had to sue The Fed to try to get disclosure of the crap they have taken on their balance sheet, and why Fox News announced that it is suing Treasury to gain disclosure of what they have taken on.

It is also why Markit has announced that they're "postponing" the listing of performance data on "Prime" mortgages - they were pressured to do so (by their own admission) because a published price means no more lying about values, and that could mean immediate (and monstrous) new writedowns for banks which hold trillions of dollars of "Prime" mortgages yet are valuing them pretty much "however they want."

As I said before, evil requires secrecy.

There is real (and justified) fear that should the truth of what is being held in these "Fed and Treasury programs" be disclosed in full that those with money (that is, producers) would flee United States Treasuries (and dollars.)

This is not an unjustified fear; it is, in fact, fear of exactly what has happened thus far and led to the collapse of AIG, Lehman, Bear Sterns and the near-collapse of Fannie and Freddie.

And what is The Fed using for its "credit grade"? Ratings from the same agencies that graded as "AAA" toxic subprime debt that all blew up.

If this last gambit fails so does our government's ability to deficit spend.

There is a near-100% probability that it will fail - we are simply arguing about the "when", not the "if".

See, without evidence that the debt (not deficit) they are asked to back will be paid down at some date-reasonable in the future, eventually the people with money will flee.

It is simply a matter of exactly when their confidence fails (that is, at what leverage ratio do they say "screw this!"), not if it will fail.

Removal of the ability to deficit spend, when the government will be running a $1 trillion+ deficit next year, would result in a roughly 25% instantaneous reduction in the government's budget - assuming tax receipts will be maintained. The problem is that they won't - with unemployment skyrocketing and GDP collapsing, tax receipts are likely to fall 30% or more, meaning that in all probability the government will find itself having to cut its budget in half on an immediate basis.

Since a goodly part of that budget is in fact interest and it cannot be cut (without causing a general default) the consequence would be a requirement to slash all government programs immediately by approximately 60% - including Medicare, Social Security, the military, education, other social programs (e.g. Title I) and everything else. In addition The Fed would be forced to immediately disgorge all of its bad assets into the market at whatever price they could be sold for, lest The Dollar become "de-currencied" almost instantaneously.

Think about Iceland and how quickly their situation unraveled.

It can - and may - happen here".......more

opkin : okay...okay...okay...enough already! ....sheesh!

peteydavinci : y'all should read a whole thang! dudes...it so good ah wudda lak ta copy...

...all on it! ...oh yeah....it were me wot messed it abaht an put summa italics an stuff in...


opkin : ah don geddit!...how come a title o this piece is 'little house onna prairie'?

hoss : cos that gon be the way it gonna be dude...self sufficiency...save fo yo own lean years...

...a new american prairie....


little joe : anyone heah seen a varmint...take me to the varmint...


adam : i aint seen a BONANZA lak iss in many a long yeah...


dandg dadalang dadalang dadalang dang daannggg dang...


ONNA LIGHTER NOTE

hamish macrae : ..."I don't think Gordon Brown has any idea of the contempt in which he is held in the rest of the world. I sat at lunch next to a top European politician a few months ago and his assessment was unrepeatable. (He cheered up noticeably when I said that the PM couldn't win an election.)

carmen macrae : There'll be no tomorrow, no matter how we pretend....

....Tomorrow brings sorrow, and loneliness without end....

beulah : WTF...aint no carmen macrae onna vid.....ya limey b*stard...

thepainteronnacisternroof : watcha want...jam onnit?

HAVE YOURSELF A MERRY LITTLE CHRISTMAS...

yo!...tidins o comfort an joy...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+73

...monday mornin here in palookaville and it aint lookin good...

opkin : yo painty!...how come yo aint been postin no stuff much lately?

perplexedly : shucks...mousey dude!..ahm lost man...evva thang gone pear shape innit!...

merryn : ..."Look at the speed at which the high street is going bankrupt; at the huge rises in unemployment; at the ongoing contraction of credit; the collapse of sterling (which suggests the rest of the world isn’t too optimistic about the UK); at the house price crash; and at the falls in consumer confidence.

Then ask a small business owner how he feels. According the Tenon Forum, more than 70 per cent of owners say that the recession has had a negative effect on their business and 26 per cent have cut staff as a result. Only 53 per cent feel positive – down from 86 per cent a year ago. Add it all up, and deflation combined with a long recession looks to be more than just a passing threat to be dealt with by chucking £60 at the odd pensioner.

Finance ministers and central bankers around the world know this. Hence the state bailouts, the frantic cutting of interest rates, the huge rises in public spending and the talk of tax cuts. They’re all aimed, not so much at helping “hard working families” in the short term, but at preventing long-term Japan- style deflationary recession.

For now, none of these measures is likely to make the slightest bit of difference: the scale of the deleveraging of the economy is just too huge. That means sensible investors should still be steering well clear of all risk. So no new exposure to much in the way of equities, holiday villas in Estonia or commercial property – regardless of the bear market rallies that are doubtless on the way (the run-up to Christmas is usually good for equities and it is easy, if slightly wrong-headed, to argue that they are cheap).

Instead, stick with gilts in anticipation of further big falls in interest rates. It might seem that all the misery the world could face is priced in but, in the UK, there is still 3 per cent to go before rates hit zero. We may well get there. more FT

zooneh : whahoppen ta a rally man?

armageddony : " 'Gone, Over, Toast.'

It's interesting how short-sighted many so-called experts are when it comes to understanding the pace and path of forces swirling through the economy.

Even when it was apparent to everyone that the bubble had burst in housing, for example, some forecasters were predicting that municipal finances would not be seriously affected.

Aside from wishful thinking, one reason for the cognitive dissonance appeared to stem from the fact that people were not getting immediate reports from state and local officials that budgets were being wracked by falling revenues and rising costs.

Yet that should not have been a surprise to anyone. There are in-built delays, such as the time it takes to build a house or the grace period allowed for tax receipts to be remitted to authorities, that would postpone the moment of reckoning for months -- or longer.

The same holds true in terms of the state of the overall economy. The optimists seem to be saying that since today's data are not so bad, fears about a serious downturn are overblown.

As it happens...

Charles Hugh Smith : ..."Breadlines didn't form in November 1929--the structural damage took years to play out then, and it will take years to play out now. So don't rush things, Peggy--we'll get to a visible Depression soon enough..."The Coming Great Depression: Leaving Fantasyland."

ambrose : World stability hangs by a thread as economies continue to unravel

mish : Housing Update - How Far To The Bottom?

petey : evvaboddy know they aint no sanity clause...

beulah : well if n thats all ya gotta say...bellyachin an stuff...i wish ya had stayed...

...shut up an dumb...

...stupid painty git don know is ass fromma el;bow...innit!

HERE COMES THE TWIST

yo...sauce fo a goose...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+62

...evva body know...a five yeah plan...

Come on everybody clap your hands
Now you're looking good
I'm gonna sing my song and you won't take long
We gotta do the twist and it goes like this...

Come on let's twist again like we did last summer
Yea, let's twist again like we did last year
Do you remember when things were really hummer
Yea, let's twist again, twistin' time is here...

Yeah round 'n around 'n up 'n down we go again
Oh baby make me know you love me so then
Come on let's twist again like we did last summer
Yea, let's twist again, twistin' time is here...

U.S. Stocks Gyrate as Auto-Industry Rescue Offsets Jobless Rise

...LET FIST AGIN

yo...meatin the beat...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+58

...nobody lak a troof man...a bollox is busy agin...beatin up onna stiff wot tellin a troof...

...george osbourne...innit...tellin how a sterlin gon be mega red...an no f**ker wannit...

...alla cos a 'conomy screwed by economic policy o a unreconsructed labour...

...a bollox mus support Admiral Brown ta go rahn kikkin po likkle tory ass fo...

...tellin a truth...innit!

THINGS AINT WHAT THEY USED TA BE

yo!..rally postponed...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+55

...today on bloomberg...

Stocks in U.S. Slump on Economy; S&P 500 Falls to Lowest Level Since 2003
•U.S. Jobless Rolls Reach 25-Year High, Exports Drop as Growth Abroad Sinks
•GE Sticks With Dividend Policy as Shares Fall Below $15, Lowest Since 1996
•Goldman Sachs Employee Pay Will Be `Dramatically' Hit by Crisis, Palm Says
•Bulgari Abandons 2008 Earnings, Sales Forecasts on Slumping Jewelry Demand

vince : whahoppen muskie?

beulah : that freakin paulie wants lokkin up...bustin a banks an fixin a handout!...

laverne : does the bottom look big in this?

ambrose : .."The modern warning to us all is the "Lost Decade" in Japan, a loose term for the on-again, off-again slump that ultimately led to zero interest rates and – when that failed – to the printing of money. After 18 years, the Nikkei stock index is now trading at 8,700 – down from a peak of nearly 40,000. House prices have fallen by half. Yet after all the stimulus, the country is once again tipping back into deflation.

Governor King said Britain was likely to avoid this fate. "We've taken action much earlier than was the case in Japan," he said.

Not everybody agrees, even after the shock and awe cut of 1.5 percentage points by the MPC. Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale, has long warned that central banks in the Anglo-Saxon countries have stored up trouble by stoking credit booms, and may find it harder than they think to engineer a soft-landing.

"This could easily go the way of Japan. It is true that Bank of England has moved faster, but Japan was a local bubble. This time it is the 'great unwind' on a global scale with leverage spaghetti everywhere," he said.

"The monetary authorities don't have foggiest idea themselves whether this is going to work. They're crossing their fingers and hoping," he said...."telegraph

petey : ahm feelin...in..sec..ure...ya mite not lurv me...any..more...


market ticker : ..."Without "silly credit", which cannot be restarted or maintained, we sell 11 million automobiles in the US a year, instead of 17.5 million. We sell one million fewer homes a year. Leisure travel dollars spent will fall by 20% and perhaps more. We sell a lot less "bling" of various sorts, whether it be $300 cell phones (the $50 one makes calls you know, and doesn't require a $100/month service plan either!), $5 lattes or $10 martinis. This is reality my friends, and there is no escaping it..."

WHAT'S YOURS IS THEIRS, WHAT'S THEIRS, THEIR OWN

yo!...pornographic...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate capitulation day+48


...the very thing that... makes them rich... will...make you poooor!!!...


halfcat : yo boss...jus wot is it abaht all iss crisis sh*t that makes yo so uncool?

plastered : 'cat man...i jus don lak bullsh*t b*stards innit!...

...i wuz ovva at barry's an click a link ta bloomboig ta watch jimbo onna vid man...

...an he speak a lotta sense...not jus on investin but also nailed the people who are causin alla crap...

...seems lak mish an jimbo see the fed, an paulie, an alla wizards o oz as...
...the problem an not the solution...

...itta politix wot ruinin a future...proppin up a zombie banks an zombie companies...

...instead a lettin a good take ovva a assets o a bad...they bustin a public finances...
...ta protec they friends!

'cat : yo!...chill dude!..don go gettin poplexed...it all loada bollox anyhow innit?

peteypoplex : WTF man!..me pension goin dahn a pluggole innit!...
...me house value sinkin by a minute... freakin deflation nah...
follered by hyper-inflation whenna liquity jexions kick in...

...an alla time a politix gettin massive index linked pensions...

...fo f**kin up...


OH YEAH...

...an theys this..

bloomberg : ..."The U.K. spent its way into trouble. It can't spend its way out again. Taxes have risen too high, and debt has soared out of control. The nation needs to pay down its obligations and lessen its dependence on financial services. There is no reason it can't make that transition with hard work and some belt-tightening.

A final splurge of public spending will only postpone that adjustment and create a real risk of economic disaster."

(Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

petey : my italics and emphasis

LAND OF THE FALLING SUN

yo!..long shot kick a bucket...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate capitulation day+46

...the story so far...whilst innocently playing a game of pass the parcel...the world panicked as the music stopped an insde the parcel was anti-money...

...hisssss went the air from the credit bubble as the balloon went down...

...help cried the banks...

...save our suckers cried the politix...

peteysan : i been worryin abaht japan an stuff fo a while nah...innit?

zooneh : boss...yo shud see iss artikle fromma Sunday Times man!

stephen : ..."Almost 20 years ago Japan entered a protracted financial crisis, bear market and economic downturn. What lessons does that experience hold as the West struggles with a financial crisis?

The Japanese bubble peaked at the end of 1989 when the Nikkei Stock Average hit 38,915. Last Monday the index closed at 7,162, a fall of more than 80% over 19 years and the lowest close since October 1982.

At the peak of the boom in 1989, there were 19 big banks in Japan. By 2008, this had shrunk to eight. Of those only one still bears the name it did in 1989. The rest have failed, been swallowed up or nationalised...

.....The specifics of every banking crisis vary by country and by cycle, but the general forces are the same. When expanding gearing gives way to contracting debt, the stage is set for a liquidity crisis.

For Japan, this occurred in 1997-98. Two large brokers and one big money-centre bank failed, followed a few months later by the nationalisation of two long-term credit banks. A similar liquidity crisis has struck the West.

It is not obvious that the process in the US and the UK has been shorter. If you define the stock-market peak as 1999-2000 and the rally since early 2003 as no more than a relief rally (analogous to Japan’s recovery from 1992 to early 1996), then the timetable is actually similar.

A liquidity crisis has a sharp impact on lending to other parts of the economy. As a result, the economy slows and the debt built up by households and businesses becomes harder to support. This gives rise to the third and final phase: a solvency crisis. Japan’s big banks reached that point about five years after the liquidity crisis.

Three kinds of adjustment are needed before stability can return. First, asset values must discount the credit- constrained world. That is already happening with a vengeance, but take care not to assume too quickly that the process is complete.

A sucker rally (or three) should be expected, to make sure that hope is extinguished before share and house prices can return to any sustainable rising trend.

The Nikkei plunged about 40% in 1990-92, rallied by about one third, then traded between 15,000 and 20,000 from 1992 to early 2000. This range included three rallies of more than 30%....

...Third, the real economy must also adjust to the new credit constraints. In Japan’s case, car sales, land prices, bank lending and the household spending index have, like share prices, returned to the levels of the early 1980s.

Corporate gearing ratios are at levels not seen for 40 years. Its economy has been through a wrenching adjustment over a long time.

Could it take this long in the West? Experience has taught that we should not rule out such a possibility. You could argue that the imbalances in the West are greater and have been allowed to build for longer than in Japan. It is that build-up of imbalances which will determine the scale and duration of this adjustment period rather than the actions of politicians and regulators (who have a tendency first to deny, then to fight the last battle rather than this one).

full article here

petey : it gon be this way heh too innit!

oh yeh..an it wuz me wot itallicked it cetra...

V SIGN FOR THE POOR

yo!..pension politix issue...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate capitulation day+32

...Admiral Brown is onna bridge o a dorkship TURNERPRIZE...struttin arahn pretendin ta be a great dictator...practicin salutes an stuff...

...all around him the economy lies in ruins...frozen by the withdrawal o the great credit binge of the labour years...

...he hopes to put the leverage handle back onna broken money machine an restart a BOOM wotz BUST...

...he wants first time buyers ta bailout a property market by buyin houses before they become fair value again...

THE GRAPES OF WRATH

liam : "I'm staggered – there is no other word for it – at the way Gordon Brown is strutting around the world like a pumped-up super-hero.

Does he have no shame? I know he's the Prime Minister; I'm meant to show due respect. But I'm still forced to ask myself – what planet is this man on?

I don't deny there is merit in the UK bail-out scheme. Some of us have argued for months that only "direct capitalisation" of the banks would even begin to break this crisis. Brown's plan is certainly better that the "made in America" version involving the state buying-up Wall Street's bad assets, without insisting on equity ownership. US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson dubbed his rescue package a "bazooka". A smaller armament would have been more apt – a peashooter, perhaps?

None of this remotely justifies Brown's triumphant tone. For one thing, the global financial system remains in very deep waters. The British economy is also a mess – with the blundering errors Brown made as Chancellor coming back to haunt us all." Sunday Telegraph

irwin : ..."Politics may make strange bedfellows, but economic crises make even stranger ones. Gordon Brown, a free trader, now finds that Nicolas Sarkozy, an arch-protectionist, has virtues he had not previously noticed. It seems that they are united by three things. First, they believe, or at least are pretending that they believe, that the current ills originated in the United States. You might remember: these are the same United States whose entrepreneurship Chancellor Brown lauded to all who would listen, before becoming prime minister and slipping easily into the anti-American mode that now dominates his public and private discourse.

Second, Brown and Sarkozy, along with their EU partners, believe that now is the time to put the former hegemon in its place. America, they believe, is paralysed by the lame-duck status of its president. It will, they reason, be forced to go along with any European proposals for what is variously called a “new financial architecture” and a “new world order”. The joy on the faces of EU leaders as they gather for their conferences can be seen in news photos. Never mind that the banking systems of their countries are on the verge of collapse, or that they are headed for a recession deeper and longer than the one the United States will suffer. Now is their chance to do things that the Americans might not like, but can’t stop.

Third, Brown, Sarkozy & Co have always done what President Ronald Reagan accused his own bureaucracy of doing: “If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. If it stops moving, subsidise it.” Brown, long famous for profligate spending and mindless regulations, now proposes to subsidise homebuying by first-time buyers so that they can catch the falling knife that is the house-price market. And his new-found friends in the EU have never hesitated to increase their tax-funded budgets, and draft regulations at such a rate that even the lobbying firms in Brussels cannot follow all the action....

........For Brown, such a Bretton Woods II would put him in the role played by John Maynard Keynes in 1944, when his biographer Robert Skidelsky reports Keynes “was the Churchill of this [financial] world, and no one could have taken his place”.

That wouldn’t be the first time, and won’t be the last time, the prime minister has likened his role in coping with the financial crisis to Churchill’s role in coping with Hitler." Sunday Times

WEATHER FORECAST

john waples : "Anyone still holding on to hopes that the financial problems have been solved and that we will not have problems in the wider economy is living in cloud cuckoo land. Over the past year we have seen an excess of debt being blown out of the banking system and the same will now happen in the real economy.

Every day I am hearing first hand from small and medium-sized businesses that are getting bullied by banks. As a result, the corporate casualty list, which so far has been contained, is going to grow rapidly. All companies that I speak to have put capital-spending programmes on hold for the next 12 months, staff numbers are being cut and profit forecasts that looked attainable only six months ago are being trimmed back.

From the collapse of Northern Rock to the part nationalisation of HBOS and Royal Bank of Scotland, it took more than a year to recognise the depth of the problems in the financial system. It may take the same length of time for the British economy to sort itself out. The stock market has already priced in a lot of this pain and has singled out those highly indebted companies that are going to struggle to survive. But so far there has been a lag between the rapid fall in UK equities and the corporate news that will inevitably follow.

It is going to be a very demanding time for company bosses, who will have to make tough decisions. Britain will pull through and the government appears keen to prime the system, but anyone who is delaying taking action should think again. This is the time that British business has to show its mettle and, if it does, it will come out the other side in much better shape.

As a newspaper we will endeavour to identify success stories. But I have had too many conversations with too many senior industrialists and other businessmen to ignore the shake-out that is coming." Sunday Times

THE PENSIONS OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR PAID FOR BY THE POOR

petey : jobs is bein lost wot will never be got back by those who will pay the real, lasting, price of browns hubris...while he an his govt. pals bask in the warmth o their Guaranteed, cast iron, index linked and unbelievably generous PUBLIC PAID PENSIONS...

...brown has robbed private pension funds of £5 billion+ per year since deciding that the poor should be hoodwinked into financing the state...while MP's voted themselves better pensions and higher pay!

1998 buget : "However, the most controversial shock and the biggest regular revenue raiser concerned abolition of the tax clawbacks available to pension funds - known as gross funds which receive dividends tax free. When companies pay out dividends they deduct what is called advance corporation tax. The amount is credited to them when they pay ordinary tax and at the same time the gross fund investors claim the ACT levy from Inland Revenue. The loss of this will amount to �4-billion in a full year rising to an estimated �5.4-billion. Brown claimed this loss would be bearable without cutting pension benefits because - thanks to rising markets - most funds had a substantial surplus over their liabilities.

However, the pension industry calls the abolition (which will pare about 0.75% a year off pensions) robbery and short term expediency for raiding people's long term savings. Companies reckon the "top up" required for in-house pension schemes will largely wipe out the cut in corporation tax while the local authorities claim that it will force them to put up property rates sharply." Business Times

peteypension : nah jus compound it up every year since 2008...money taken from our savings to pay for their pensions!

THE RED SPECKALED SCREEN

yo!...elementary...innit..!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate capitulation day+22

...sherlock holmes is puffin on is pipe an watson oilin a old shot gun...inna drawrin room...

watson : WTF..?...birdbrain!

holmes : elementary my dear watson...there was no money...it was all an illusion...fueled by credit conjured outa nowhere by a leverage machine anna bunch a cunnin bastards...

watson : yo mean a bankers dude?

holmes : no jus a bankers man...politix anna developers anna media an alla suckers wot believed inna dream...

watson : i say!...wots ta be done?.. holmes old boy?

holmes : elementary my dear watson!...we gotta make a banks own up an
TELL THE TRUTH...

market ticker : "They(the credit markets) remain frozen because the root cause of the problem is that banks and other financial firms have been lying for more than a year, each quarter claiming to have "kitchen sinked" their losses only to report more the next quarter, and in some cases have gone on national TV to proclaim they're "well-capitalized" only days or weeks before they collapse!

The first question anyone asks when someone wishes to borrow money is whether or not they will get paid back. If the lender does not believe they will be able to be paid back then that loan will not be made, no matter how much money someone has available to them.

It really is that simple folks and yet this fundamental principle has been willfully and intentionally ignored for more than a year.

THE UNDERGASM

beulah : yo! painty shugga...why is alla em screens red?

painty : honey...thats cos a whole wurl is shittin itsen ovva a complete seizure o a financial system...

beulah : yeh..but it not gon fect us nah is it?

sadsakkapaintysh*t : nah...yo goo back a sleep honey it all be ovva by a time yo wakes up...innit!

zooneh : yo! dude...i don think it be ovva fo a while man...

saddy : i knows it man...but i aint gotta heart fo ta tella a troof...

so...nah we see wot come o buckin a market...instead o takin a likkle hit o recession
nah anna gen...we create a permanent boom onna nevva nevva an massage a markets to a point o undergasm...a whole wash day...shot ta hell...

...a illusion lost...anna crisis convulsin a suckers...a f**kin whiplash o tension explodes...
an causes iss sunami o debt...ta puke up all ovva a table cloth...

TRUST = CONFIDENCE...LOSS OF TRUST = DISASTER...

barry : "...The thing roiling markets today is not the lack of confidence; It is capital, or more accurately, the lack thereof. Thanks to a series of very poor trades—excessively leveraged and absurdly risky to boot—banks are now dramatically undercapitalized.

As we have seen in just about every historical financial crisis, the shortage of capital is the underlying cause of monetary mayhem. Too much debt, too little equity, makes any financial system cease to function." the big picture

nouriel : ..."The crisis was caused by the largest leveraged asset bubble and credit bubble in the history of humanity where excessive leveraging and bubbles were not limited to housing in the US but also to housing in many other countries and excessive borrowing by financial institutions and some segments of the corporate sector and of the public sector in many and different economies: an housing bubble, a mortgage bubble, an equity bubble, a bond bubble, a credit bubble, a commodity bubble, a private equity bubble, a hedge funds bubble are all now bursting at once in the biggest real sector and financial sector deleveraging since the Great Depression...." over at mish's

ALL THE KINGS HORSES

AND ALLA KINGS MEN...

yo!...humpty dumpty...innit..!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate capitulation day+19

...dorkfleet starships...TITANIC AND BRITANIC have been blown out of the water...
by panic selling...caused by the realisation that they was BUST

...the sinkin o a good ship...LEHMAN...was wot caused it ta go pear shape...big time...
suckers all saw emsel abaht ta be whacked by a FEDS anna govt...

bloomberg : ``The big concern is that we're going into recession,'' said de Graaf, a senior managing director at ISI Group Inc. in New York. ``The first part is the unwind of the previous boom, the second is the recession that follows. We're in the camp that we're only halfway through this.''

INCLUDE ME OUT

halfcat : doooommed.!...we're allll dooomed...

zooneh : why is any one surprised?

beulah : at painty bastard aint as stoopid as ah thinked...

spider : wassup?..innit...plenty o flies arahnd.!...wot wiyall iss sh*t an stuff...

laverne : ahm sittin onna fortune...innit..?

THE GRAPES O WRATH

jeff : “Cause and effect run from the economy to the stock market, never the reverse. In 1929, the economy was headed for trouble,” wrote Galbraith.

As now, too few understood this. Many who foresaw disaster kept quiet. There was a conspiracy of silence. “The foolish thus [had] the field to themselves.”

In the 1920s, says Galbraith, America’s economy had been weakened by “bad distribution of income... bad corporate structure... bad banking structure... dubious state of the foreign balance... and poor state of economic intelligence”. Who can say with certainty that today it is different? Who now wants to defend the promoters of a one-way bet on property? Any takers?

For those hoping that the stock market’s recent “correction” will be followed by a swift recovery, Galbraith puts a wealth warning on suckers’ rallies. “The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximise the suffering.”

It’s worth remembering that a full recovery in the stock market took more than 20 years. During that time, in July 1932 the Dow Jones index was 89pc below its top. In Britain, the reaction was less severe: the market merely halved." Telegraph

market ticker : "...Market participants must be able to know that when they engage in a transaction it will be transparent, handled fairly, and their rights will be protected.

Our politicians must stop demanding the impossible - that home prices "levitate." House prices cannot be maintained at more than 3x incomes - it simply can't be done. We must encourage home prices to contract to sustainable, affordable levels quickly and efficiently.

Mortgages must return to 30 year fixed notes, 20% down, no more than 36% DTI. No government-linked paper in any GSE may issue outside these guidelines. We must reliquify the mortgage market, and this is the only way to do it - by writing only sustainable mortgages...."

petey : humpty dumpty sat onna wall...humpty dumpty had a great fall...