DANSE MACABRE

yo!...buggar thy neighbor...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
...capitulation day postponed...


...here in...

...palookaville...

...all bets are hedged...

...as we await the resumption of normal service...

...a V shaped recovery has been achieved in the financial markets...

...and the puppet masters have made loads-a-money...


IT TAKES ONE TO TANGO

...the states within the Eurodisunion...

...are locked in a dance of death...

...those that sell and those that buy...


...those who sell will not buy and those who buy must borrow to do so...

...those who lend fear they will not be repaid...

...the price of borrowing must rise for those who buy...

...those who sell...will not lend...

...round and round we go...

...until the music stops...

...when all must find a seat at the table...

...or fall to the floor...

...and must then sit out the game...

...in the corner...with the dunce's hat...


WE TWO KINGS


...Chi Na and Berlin...

...are kings of the castle...

...all the rest are dirty rascals...


STANDS WITH A BOWL

...our great leader...

...is asking for more...


...more time to rule...

...more money to spend...

...he can't get enough from all us palookas...

...so he stands with a bowl...

...begging for more money...

...so that he can pay the interest...

...on the money he has borrowed...

...mr bumble the beedle...

...wants to give him to the undertaker...

...who will bury him for good...


FATAL ATTRACTION

...but he just keeps emerging from the dead...

...consumate zombie that he is...

...the people of palookaville...

...will vote for death...

...so long as somebody else will pay for it...

BAGPIPE MUSIC

It's no go the merry-go-round, it's no go the rickshaw,
All we want is a limousine and a ticket for the peepshow.
Their knickers are made of crepe-de-chine, their shoes are made of python,
Their halls are lined with tiger rugs and their walls with head of bison.

John MacDonald found a corpse, put it under the sofa,
Waited till it came to life and hit it with a poker,
Sold its eyes for souvenirs, sold its blood for whiskey,
Kept its bones for dumbbells to use when he was fifty.

It's no go the Yogi-man, it's no go Blavatsky,
All we want is a bank balance and a bit of skirt in a taxi.

Annie MacDougall went to milk, caught her foot in the heather,
Woke to hear a dance record playing of Old Vienna.
It's no go your maidenheads, it's no go your culture,
All we want is a Dunlop tire and the devil mend the puncture.

The Laird o' Phelps spent Hogmanay declaring he was sober,
Counted his feet to prove the fact and found he had one foot over.
Mrs. Carmichael had her fifth, looked at the job with repulsion,
Said to the midwife "Take it away; I'm through with overproduction."

It's no go the gossip column, it's no go the Ceilidh,
All we want is a mother's help and a sugar-stick for the baby.

Willie Murray cut his thumb, couldn't count the damage,
Took the hide of an Ayrshire cow and used it for a bandage.
His brother caught three hundred cran when the seas were lavish,
Threw the bleeders back in the sea and went upon the parish.

It's no go the Herring Board, it's no go the Bible,
All we want is a packet of fags when our hands are idle.

It's no go the picture palace, it's no go the stadium,
It's no go the country cot with a pot of pink geraniums,
It's no go the Government grants, it's no go the elections,
Sit on your arse for fifty years and hang your hat on a pension.

It's no go my honey love, it's no go my poppet;
Work your hands from day to day, the winds will blow the profit.
The glass is falling hour by hour, the glass will fall forever,
But if you break the bloody glass you won't hold up the weather.

Louis Macneice

	Malcolm Evison (9/16/2005 9:59:00 AM)
	Humorous as it may be with regards to Class and social mores, flirtations with theosophy etc., one is brought up with a start... the realization that this was written in 1937 and, the more specific social unrest in Spain and Germany... the fall of the glass is unstoppable!

...petey...

the more things change...innit!

OH DEAR...

yo!...bummer...innit!

PENSIONS KAPUTNIK DAY


...here in palookagrad today...


...the planners are breaking the bad news to the proles...


...you have to work longer folks...


...THEY AIN'T NO JOBS...


...you have to come off incapacity benefit and go to work...


...only...


...THEY AIN'T NO JOBS...


POLITICAL SUICIDE


...everyone knows something has to give...


...but...


...not that it should be given by them...


...the fact is that the government has bust the country...


...and that their index-linked pensions are safe...


...not to mention their buy-to-let portfolios...


...paid for by expenses claims (us)...


don't worry


...we will not have to work longer though...


...because...


1. they ain't no jobs...


2. most middle class people work for the government...


3. that means index-linked pensions from age 60...


4. the rest will be on benefits...


5. only idiots who have saved money will pay...


6. obviously that is a very small number...

Remorse : The New Bull Market

yo!...pitchforks averted...for now...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+231...


...here in palookaville this morning...


...the talk is all about...


...forgiveness...


SERIOUS REMORSE


...the recession...


...caused by the ending of polititions expence claims...


...is almost over...


...as new money will be created...


...by...


...increasing their salaries...


...to compensate for their loss of privilige...



THE GOOD NEWS


...is that...


...this will increase their pensions...


...and this is a much more secure form of income for them...


...maybe now that they won't be spending all their time...


...working out how to claim maximum benefits...


...they will be able to find jobs for the 2.2 million newly unemployed...



TAKE AND GIVE


...the great debt...


...caused by the massive cost of MP's expences and pensions...


...is to disappear...


...they are to give back all of their extravagent takings...


...the national debt...


...will now not be...


...£240,000,000,000,000...


...after all...

HOUSE OF THE SETTING SUN

yo!...itz property wot done it...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+165...

...

There is a house in many a town
They call the Rising Debt
And it's been the ruin of many a poor boy
And God I know I'm it

My mother was a tailor
She sewed my new bluejeans
My father was a gamblin' man
Down in New Orleans

Now the only thing a gambler needs
Is a mortgage and trunk
And the only time he's satisfied
Is when he's on a drunk

------ organ solo ------

Oh mother tell your children
Not to do what I have done
Spend your lives in sin and misery
In the House of the Rising Debt

Well, I got one foot on the platform
The other foot on the train
I'm goin' back to Rentin a room
To wear that ball and chain

Well, there is a house in New Orleans
They call the Settin Sun
And it's been the ruin of many a poor boy
And God I know I'm one

EVERY PICTURE TELLS A STORY

NB chart is uk based and funds reflect the effect of currency movements

charts from equitable life are used as an illustration of sector performance comparisons only
and not as a commentary on their investment performance. no opinion is offered here either for or against equitable life as a pension company...

...they just happen to have these charts...
...which i find very helpful...
...when comparing sector fund performance...

...THERE IS A DISCLAIMER AT THE TOP O THE PAGE...

...THIS AINT ADVICE AN WE AINT IN BUSINESS...

...WE JUS SUCKERS LAK YOU...

...PISSIN INNA WIND...

BYE BYE EURO GOODBYE

yo!...free meal deal...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+153...


..all the talk here in palookaville is about...

...the euro...


WHO PAYS THE PIPER...INNIT!


...will it be saved by german largesse?...

...or sunk by revolt at german diktat?...




...don't panic! don't panic!...


...they won't like it up em!...

...who the germans or the 'others'..?


...this thing has further to run...

...has legs as they say...

...everybody march in step...


...and don't mention the goose..!.



HOLIDAY OF HOLIDAYS


...beulah an me are lookin forward...

...to more holidays in italy and spain...


...it really is ridiculous that we should have to buy euros...

...to spend there...

...what idiot made prices the same in all the european countries???

...but not wages!..?


...we want our cheap holidays back...

...and you want to keep your jobs...


...so come on guys...

...get with the plan...

...bring on the lire and peseta..

...set your own interest rates...

...and float...


...let the market decide what your currency is worth...


YOU KNOW IT MAKES SENSE


...so what is wrong with flexibility?...

...if the trees don't bend in the wind...

...they snap...


...we love to visit you and eat your food...

...but you are pricing us out of your market..


...let the germans and the french...

...be the expensive destinations...

...

STANDS WITH A BOWL

yo!..home ta roost...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+119...


...the story so far...

...a new american president has gone supernova...

...but...

the great british dictator has gone brown dwarf...



NOT THE END OF THE BEGINNING


...the weather is turning icelandic...

...but...

...so is the pound...


THE WHITE POUND

iain martin : "They don't know what they're doing, do they? With every step taken by the Government as it tries frantically to prop up the British banking system, this central truth becomes ever more obvious.

Yesterday marked a new low for all involved, even by the standards of this crisis. Britons woke to news of the enormity of the fresh horrors in store. Despite all the sophistry and outdated boom-era terminology from experts, I think a far greater number of people than is imagined grasp at root what is happening here.

The country stands on the precipice. We are at risk of utter humiliation, of London becoming a Reykjavik on Thames and Britain going under. Thanks to the arrogance, hubristic strutting and serial incompetence of the Government and a group of bankers, the possibility of national bankruptcy is not unrealistic." telegraph...

ninja : ..."All the growth in tax receipts linked to real estate and financial services was of course was nothing but an illusion. Those tax receipts are gone now, almost certainly never to return. Most of the financial firms won’t record profits for years and when they finally do, they will have years of losses to carry forward. The net result will be a giant, prolonged corporate tax shortfall.

In the meantime, the government is throwing good money after bad. This is of course plunging the country deep into debt. Just like in Iceland, although to a lesser degree relative to GDP, UK banks have liabilities in other currencies. As the pound goes into free fall, these liabilities explode in value crippling the banks. As the UK issues more debt to stabilize the banks, even more pressure is put on the pound. A vicious, debt death spiral could easily be sparked."...


jim rogers : ...“I don’t think there is a sound UK bank now, at least, if there is one I don’t know about it,” he says.

“The City of London is finished, the financial centre of the world is moving east.”
“All the money is in Asia. Why would it go back to the West? You don’t need London,” says Mr Rogers.

Mr Rogers thinks the pound is more vulnerable than the dollar or the euro.

He says the UK housing market is arguably in a worse state than that of the US, given pockets of strength in the US and prices that are sliding across the board in the UK.

Meanwhile, he says, the UK is in worse shape economically than the eurozone, where most countries are not big debtors and do not run huge trade deficits.

“If the UK discovers more North Sea oil, I might change this view,” he says. “But I don’t see that happening.” FT

ticker : ..."There is exactly one way to resolve this problem - the banks must be "crammed down" through forcible reorganization, and we must stop bailing them out and handing them money.

We cannot recapitalize them through taxpayer donations, for through that path we only delay the inevitable. We do not have the ability to "manufacture" or "borrow" the three to five trillion dollars it would take to cover those losses - a full fifty percent increase in our federal debt, on which we would pay hundreds of billions of dollars a year - forever - being a permanent drag on GDP. Such a path will only lead to more insolvency as the crimp on GDP will inevitably lead to more job losses, more credit losses and more malaise, ultimately resulting in the very collapse that the proponents of this path claim to be trying to avoid."...

THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW

matthew lynn : ..."One thing is clear, though: The world won’t go back to the debt-fuelled, globalization-crazy world of 2007."

“Unlike previous postwar contractions, the problem the global economy now faces does not primarily stem from a temporary mismatch between output and demand,” Stephen Lewis, chief economist at Monument Securities Ltd. in London, said in a note to investors. “It arises, rather, from the breakdown of the financial system, and the process of wealth-destruction that has set in train.”

Three Tasks

The question now is how Obama can take the lead in fixing that. Here are three places he could start.

First, ditch ideological hang-ups. The debate on how to move on from the credit crunch is fast turning into trench warfare between the traditional advocates of big government and the die- hard supporters of the free market. That isn’t getting us anywhere. The free-market camp needs to recognize that there wasn’t enough supervision or regulation of the financial markets. We are going to need more rules.

Likewise, the big-government camp needs to understand that more spending and government meddling won’t fix much either. We don’t want to lose the growth, dynamism and opportunities that flowed from the free movement of money, ideas and people across borders. The path to be steered will have to lie somewhere between the two extremes.

Rules for Banks

Next, new rules on the way banks operate are needed. It is clear that the global banking system had ignored the risks building up over many years. The incentive systems had become perverse. New capital requirements will have to be devised for banks to stop excessive risk-taking. Institutions such as hedge funds and private-equity firms will have to be brought into the system: They play too big a role in the financial markets to be left unregulated. And the rules need to be global. There is no point in changes being made country-by-country. That way we lose all the benefits of globalization.

Most importantly, the imbalances need to be fixed. Too much capital was being recycled through the global financial system. Some countries -- China and Germany, for example -- exported and saved too much. Others -- the U.S. and U.K. -- imported and borrowed too much. That will have to be rectified. It is no good having one lot of countries telling everyone else to consume more unless they are also willing to consume less. That will hurt. But there is no way of avoiding it. Where the last president had a war on terror, this one needs a war on financial bubbles, and that requires a more balanced global economy."bloomberg...

peteynation : foolin alla the people alla the time is difficult...

...1997 - 2007...

smoke an mirrors...profits of wax...

...less of the benefit...

...more of the tax...

THE LONELINESS OF THE LONG DISTANCE SAVER

y0!...long shot kikka buckit...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+114...


...petethepainter is dead but still on the run...

...head shot with a sawn off, reactivated .45...

...he was under water at the end of 2008 by 7%...


...he has been tryin ta get to the bottom of the pension fund collapse...

...by swimming the pools of famous silent movie actresses in downtown palookaville...

...he hopes to find the...

...mother of all bottoms...

Distressed asset indices fall sharply

Indices tracking the value of the trillions of dollars of distressed assets that continue to blight bank balance sheets fell sharply this week as a negative spiral of financial distress and subsequent economic pain continued.

The declines – which signal further potential writedowns by banks – are fuelling fears that the first quarter of this year could herald further pain for the financial system, even as many banks reveal sharp losses for the fourth quarter of 2008.

SHORT FOR SHORT'S SAKE


Short for Shorts sake...

Money for Gods sake...

Gimme the readys...Gimme the cash...

Gimme a bullet...Gimme yo stash...

Gimme yo silver...Gimme yo gold...

Make it a million for when I get old..!

Short for Shorts sake...

Money for Gods sake!


SPECIAL LITERARY EDITION

mish : Huddling Under The TARP

Inquiring minds are reading Andrew Jeffery's column, Bank of America Huddling Under TARP.

To quote a recent op-ed in the Journal, which likened the government response to the current financial crisis to the circumstances described in Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged...

"Politicians invariably respond to crises -- that in most cases they themselves created -- by spawning new government programs, laws and regulations. These, in turn, generate more havoc and poverty, which inspires the politicians to create more programs . . . and the downward spiral repeats itself until the productive sectors of the economy collapse under the collective weight of taxes and other burdens imposed in the name of fairness, equality and do-goodism."

The similarities are so striking, it almost seems like regulators are using Atlas Shrugged as a playbook for their policy response to the crisis. They must not have waded through all 1,000 pages to see how the story ended.

Atlas Shrugged: Fiction To Fact

The Wall Street Journal article that Jeffrey quoted is Atlas Shrugged': From Fiction to Fact in 52 Years. Here is another snip.

The current economic strategy is right out of "Atlas Shrugged": The more incompetent you are in business, the more handouts the politicians will bestow on you. That's the justification for the $2 trillion of subsidies doled out already to keep afloat distressed insurance companies, banks, Wall Street investment houses, and auto companies -- while standing next in line for their share of the booty are real-estate developers, the steel industry, chemical companies, airlines, ethanol producers, construction firms and even catfish farmers.

With each successive bailout to "calm the markets," another trillion of national wealth is subsequently lost. Yet, as "Atlas" grimly foretold, we now treat the incompetent who wreck their companies as victims, while those resourceful business owners who manage to make a profit are portrayed as recipients of illegitimate "windfalls."

...Mike "Mish" Shedlock...


GROUCHO, HARPO, CHICO,

...KARL...

..."Owners of capital will stimulate the working class to buy more and more expensive goods, houses and technology, pushing them to take on more and more expensive debt, until their debt becomes unbearable.

The unpaid debt will lead to the bankruptcy of all banks, which will have to be nationalised, and the State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism.”

...So says the Karl Marx quote that has been whizzing round Wall Street and the City...

times :

"We seemed a step closer to that prospect yesterday.
Bank shares plunged again on both sides of the Atlantic amid concern that more capital injections will be required. Bank of America shares fell 20 per cent on reports that it needed further government help to complete the acquisition of Merrill Lynch. Merrill has suffered higher than expected losses in the fourth quarter and BoA is in talks with the American authorities about an infusion of capital.

Citigroup shares tumbled further, ahead of today's results, which are expected to be horrible.

These falls took the combined value of Citigroup and BoA - so recently the two most valuable banks in the world - below that of Wells Fargo, the conservative West Coast lender.

Back in Britain, bank shares were also under the cosh again, as ministers scurried to finalise another package of measures designed to get credit flowing again.

Gordon Brown said that the toxic assets of banks had to be dealt with, which could require more capital, while Capital Economics forecasts British banks will lose £85billion over the next three years and lending will be slashed by £400billion unless they get more capital.

At this rate, RBS will be fully nationalised before Sir Philip Hampton takes over as chairman.

According to the Marx quote, this means communism will not be far behind.

Except, of course, Marx didn't say that.

The quote is a fake. You just can't trust those bankers. times

1984 : THE WAY WE LIVE NOW

The Ministry of Truth...

wikipedia : ..."is where the main character of the book Nineteen Eighty-Four, Winston Smith, works.^[1] It is an enormous pyramidal structure of glittering white concrete rising 300 meters into the air, containing over 3000 rooms above ground.

On the outside wall are the three slogans of the Party:

"War is Peace,"

"Freedom is Slavery,"

"Ignorance is Strength."

There is also a large part underground, probably containing huge incinerators where documents are destroyed after they are put down...

memory holes.

For his description Orwell was inspired by...

the Senate House at the University of London.<sup>[2]..."




ANYONE FOR KAFKA ?</sup>

Adj.	1.	Kafkaesque - relating to or in the manner of Franz Kafka or his writings
	2.	kafkaesque - characterized by surreal distortion and a sense of impending danger; "the kafkaesque terror of the endless interrogations" unrealistic - not realistic; "unrealistic expectations"; "prices at unrealistic high levels"

<sup>http://www.thefreedictionary.com/Kafkaesque



THE PEN IS MIGHTIER THAN THE PENCIL


...so!...

...ayn rand, karl marx, george orwell, kafka...

...things are startin ta look serious...</sup>

THE MORE I SAVE...THE MORE I LOSE

yo!...hell hath no fury...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+109...


...on sunset boulevard...peterthepainter lies...

...face down in vilma banky's pool...

...beulah...a famous ex gansta's moll...

...has shot him inna head with a reactivated .45...



...the lazy, painty b*stard had shrunk the pension stash...


GIRL ON A RAMPAGE


beulah : who soever seeks ta f**k up mi finances shall...pay!...

...itz that brown wot done it...

...alla msm bollox are too scared ta tell atruth...

...he caused us ta lose...

...our pension stash...our holiday...our savins interest...


BROWN : BLAME ANYONE BUT ME


...he allas sayin it were a sub prime or it caused by america...


...he says he saved the world...that he saved the banks...


...but the banks is still bust...an they won't lend...


...an they gon be commin back fo mo...



BOULEVARD OF BROKEN DREAMS


edmond conway :..."

Definitive proof that the Bank of England saw the financial crisis coming

edmond conway : ..."As we wrote in our City Comment that day: "One statistic in particular shows precisely how exposed the City is to the bursting of the household debt bubble. At the beginning of 2001, our banks were not lending customers any more than the total amount of deposits they held. By the end of 2005, banks were lending customers £500bn in cash which simply wasn't in the vaults. Should customers default on their loans, these banks could be in trouble, having to resort to borrowing chunks of money at penal interbank rates."

Not only did the Bank's report, which can be found here (page 28 is the one on the funding gap - p30 on the pdf version), lay out the City's increased reliance on wholesale funding - it also warned that this leaves banks extremely vulnerable in the event of a slowdown. Now, the Bank was not the first to diagnose the seeds of the crisis: there were one or two hedge funds which were already trading on the likelihood of a UK banking breakdown caused by this reliance on securitisation. There were plenty of commentators warning on the excessive build-up of debt. But as far as I can tell this was about the earliest warning on the problems inherent to the UK mortgage market.

The report completely debunks the notion that the financial crisis came as a surprise to the City, or indeed the Bank. The Government had been warned explicitly not by some crackpot economist but by its own employees in Threadneedle Street about precisely how the crisis could erupt. Not only this, but the report also revealed that its "war games" plotting out scenarios including a credit crunch revealed that a debt-fuelled crisis could cause a severe UK recession, a 25pc fall in house prices and a wiping out of a third of banks' tier one capital - around £40bn at the time. It is difficult to think how it could have made more noise about the possible risks the debt build-up entailed...."

...Of course, the eventual crisis has been far greater than even this worst-case scenario, but remember that this was a warning delivered more than a year before the securitisation markets broke down in August 2007. Had it been heeded in Government, Northern Rock - not to mention the rest of the banking system - could very possibly have been saved from complete collapse. The UK could have been let off with a mild rather than severe recession. House prices could have been brought back under control, rather than booming again for another breakneck year of growth." Telegraph


HERE IS THE NEWS

...vilma banky looks out of the orangery at the leaves floatin in her new pool...

...yikes!...is that petey?...floatin there?


...petey is sayin nuthin...not because he's dead...

...thats just a minor detail inna much bigger plot...


...he's waitin fo beulah ta git dahn ta the msm bollox...


...she gon tell em fo sho...


...yo sat on yo asses an did nowt...

...while brown and his gang...


...bullied their way ta this bust...


...the plan ta bust the country was in place from the start...


...increase taxes, increase the public sector workforce, create a client state...


...put alla the voters onna state payroll, nationalise the banks...


...punish savers, rob the private pensions, complicate the tax system...


...increase treasury power, politicise the civil service...


HERE IS THE BILL


...a devalued currency...

...unsustainable public finances...

...insolvent banks...

...pension funds in deficit...

...no income for people who rely on interest on their savings...

...house price crash...

...negative equity...

...first time buyers kept out of the housing market...

...rapidly rising unemployment...

...stock market crash...

...commercial property crash...

...20% cuts in with profits policy bonuses...

...no jobs for graduates...

...middle class poverty...

...a new wave of violent robberies...

...car sales slump...

...tax revenues wiped out...

...massive national debt...


INDEXED LINKED PENSIONS FOR POLITICIANS


...and when you have gone...

...whether we recover or not...


...you and your gang will have the best pensions in the land...

safe from any inflation you will have caused...

GOODBYE TO ALL THAT

yo!...that woz a yeah wot woz...innit?

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+102


...it sho am cold...inna loff...


...folks is all bundled up inna xmas swettez...freezin they bollocks off...


...hardleh a soun come aht o any onnem...


ECSTATIC INNA ATTIC


paintbrush : ??.suckah gone dahn...innit!

zooney : tomorra be anutha day...anna new yeah...

beulah : ....yawn...

laverne : sumbich...

opkin : bollox is fulla pre-dicks...

spidah : onna web...no one hear ya laff...

dopey : ake me up wennit all ovva...

grumpy : we saved the wurld...innit!

neinstine : time is relative...time ta see the relatives...time ta cut loose...


The financial crisis has slashed the equivalent of £60,000 from the wealth of every family in Britain in the past year, research suggests.


ANOTHER YEAR ANOTHER DOLLAR


...in palookaville we take predictions seriously...


...which is why we don't make none...


scheizer : ...: It's pretty clear the pros aren't buying. They are selling to the usual victims with the help of the Wall Street media.

The November low was a panic low and not a capitulation low. Capitualtion is when no one wants stocks, period. With the latest EPS forecast for SP500 earnings now at $42, and a Bear market bottom of a PE=8 (based on the last 4 big recession bottoms), the SP500 could/should see 42 x 8 = $332 in 2009. Perhaps we will see capitulation then. comment



...scheizer : Inning one of the Depression - perhaps that is the way you should look at it, plus read this:

seekingalpha.com/artic...


petey : my comments on seekin alpha stuff

LITTLE HOUSE ONNA PRAIRIE

yo!...happy days...innit!


PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+93


ponzi : heyyyyyyyyyyy?

richie : hey ponzie...how come everyone stopped shoppin man?

ralf malf : yeahhhhhhh...crummy Christmas anna sucking new yeah...

potsie : whooeeee ponzi i think my strings have snapped...


ponzi : y'all jus stop suckin dudes...i gotta scheme ta get us outa this jam...


THE PONZI CHAPEL CEILING


paintybollox : shoot! ....ah jus bin onna ticker blog...anna bin shocked and awed...

zooneh : wot fo yo bin frazzled man?

beulah : at f**kin ticker jus blowin offa steam innit? ...he allus inna bate...

laverne : ah dunno beulie babe him n mish be two offa best bloggers onna planet...

spidah : onna web yo kin scare yo self...iffn yo aint street smart...


peteyangelo : that ole ticker gotta ponzi scheme all laid bare...itta woik o art...


ticker : ..."This is an uncomfortable reality, but it is reality.

Mr. Madoff stands accused of (in his own words) running "a Ponzi Scheme."

In fact, our entire economy over the last ten years, and really back to at least 1987, has been roughly equivalent to what Mr. Madoff was doing.

So has our government.

Let's go down the list of things that have been inflated beyond their natural boundaries, and look at how each and every one of them was destined to collapse - and why they're all collapsing at once:

• The Internet Bubble.
• The Housing Bubble.
• The Stock and Credit Markets Generally.
• Our Government's Finances.
  

There are many who say that our government debt-bubble will not collapse, and they list a whole host of reasons.

Why would you believe that?

Can you show, through history, one speculative bubble that has not popped?

Can you find one time - just once - that such a bubble was able to be grown without limit?

Simply put: No......

.......Americans have, as a nation, become fat, dumb, "entitled" and lazy.

There are many who argue that those who live "hand to mouth" don't have that choice. Really? Here are two statistics that make clear that this is simply false:

• In 2003 there were 159 million cell phone subscribers in the United States, and the average monthly bill was $49.91. Penetration has since grown to approximately 70% of the population (from ~60% in 2003.) Since 25% of all persons are under the age of 18, the majority of the non-subscribers to cellular services are in fact children under the age of 10.
• In 2002 58 percent of persons age 18 and over were overweight, and 23 percent were considered medically obese.

.....So in fact we have two "inconvenient facts" that contradict the claim that those who live "hand to mouth" and yet are working could not save for their retirement and old age if they decided to do so - the first being that they spend nearly $600 a year on cellular service - a luxury, and the second being that nearly 6 in 10 are consuming significantly more food (and paying for it) than their body demands for metabolic balance......

.........As the embedded (and fraudulently-concealed) debt continued to mount banks and other institutions found themselves performing a Madoff - that is, issuing new credit (debt) to be able to "show earnings" that in fact were a phantom. Unlike Madoff they did not have to go find someone new to put money in to be able to issue the checks to existing investors, since a bank that can operate with no reserve requirements imposed on it is capable of issuing as much credit as it wants, effectively "printing money."

.....Regulations and leverage limits are supposed to prevent this, but they were systematically and intentionally dismantled in the name of "financial innovation."

In truth they were dismantled in the name of a massive financial fraud that permeated every corner of our credit system, from credit cards to student loans to automobiles to housing.

This ponzi scheme even extended to individual consumers - that is, you.

If you HELOC'd out money and paid down your credit cards with it, then charged anew or cash-out refinanced, you were a Madoff. If you bought a house with an Option ARM, knowing full well you could not make make a fully-amortized "recast" payment, you were a Madoff. If you played the balance transfer game with your credit cards, rolling balances from one zero-interest offer to another, you were a Madoff. Tens of millions of Americans did one or more of these things - and each and every one of them - if not you then someone you knew - was running a personal version of Madoff's scheme.

Every organ of our government and regulatory system was involved in this knowing deceit and the complicity required for it to occur - Congress, The White House, Treasury, The Federal Reserve - and still is.

So why did the bubble collapse, if these institutions are able to continue to literally "print money" and the regulators were intentionally ignoring all of it?

The fundamental problem with all Ponzi Schemes, even those in which the operator is able to issue credit at will, is that it relies on people not challenging the books.

It requires "belief" - that is, confidence.

Thus the phrase "con game".

When Bear Stearns two hedge funds collapsed, the house of cards began to shake. People started looking at balance sheets and asking lots of very inconvenient questions, including exactly how one can have a mortgage-backed security rated "AAA" when 40% of the loans in it are either delinquent or in foreclosure. A few people started to listen to those who had analyzed the math, such as myself and Mish, and the light came on in their head - "Oh My God, they're right!"

See, while credit spends like money, it is not money. ........

.............You would think that Bernanke and Paulson would recognize what is going on - and that they are unable to stop the inevitable collapse.

Here's the problem - they do recognize it, but they are two of the architects of it, and admitting the truth means taking responsibility for what they have done.

That's not going to happen so long as they believe they can manage to keep the "con" going with someone.

The group of "someone's", however, is shrinking rapidly. Commercial and Investment bank loans, then Fannie and Freddie, then commercial paper issuers, and now various sorts of consumer loan products such as credit cards, automobile financing and student loans are all being shunned by those with actual money as they start to peek under the kimono and find not a pleasant sight but rather something both ugly and hairy staring back at them.

Thus, the transfer of all of this "credit" (really bad debt) no longer backed by money (as the producers have taken their ball and left) from the institutions that created the ponzi scheme to "the sovereign" - the Government - in all of its forms, whether it be Treasury or The Fed directly.

The latest announcement came on Friday, when The Fed loosened the terms of the TALF (one of its alphabet soup programs) and effectively allowed hedge funds to borrow from it.

This, incidentally, is why Bloomberg has had to sue The Fed to try to get disclosure of the crap they have taken on their balance sheet, and why Fox News announced that it is suing Treasury to gain disclosure of what they have taken on.

It is also why Markit has announced that they're "postponing" the listing of performance data on "Prime" mortgages - they were pressured to do so (by their own admission) because a published price means no more lying about values, and that could mean immediate (and monstrous) new writedowns for banks which hold trillions of dollars of "Prime" mortgages yet are valuing them pretty much "however they want."

As I said before, evil requires secrecy.

There is real (and justified) fear that should the truth of what is being held in these "Fed and Treasury programs" be disclosed in full that those with money (that is, producers) would flee United States Treasuries (and dollars.)

This is not an unjustified fear; it is, in fact, fear of exactly what has happened thus far and led to the collapse of AIG, Lehman, Bear Sterns and the near-collapse of Fannie and Freddie.

And what is The Fed using for its "credit grade"? Ratings from the same agencies that graded as "AAA" toxic subprime debt that all blew up.

If this last gambit fails so does our government's ability to deficit spend.

There is a near-100% probability that it will fail - we are simply arguing about the "when", not the "if".

See, without evidence that the debt (not deficit) they are asked to back will be paid down at some date-reasonable in the future, eventually the people with money will flee.

It is simply a matter of exactly when their confidence fails (that is, at what leverage ratio do they say "screw this!"), not if it will fail.

Removal of the ability to deficit spend, when the government will be running a $1 trillion+ deficit next year, would result in a roughly 25% instantaneous reduction in the government's budget - assuming tax receipts will be maintained. The problem is that they won't - with unemployment skyrocketing and GDP collapsing, tax receipts are likely to fall 30% or more, meaning that in all probability the government will find itself having to cut its budget in half on an immediate basis.

Since a goodly part of that budget is in fact interest and it cannot be cut (without causing a general default) the consequence would be a requirement to slash all government programs immediately by approximately 60% - including Medicare, Social Security, the military, education, other social programs (e.g. Title I) and everything else. In addition The Fed would be forced to immediately disgorge all of its bad assets into the market at whatever price they could be sold for, lest The Dollar become "de-currencied" almost instantaneously.

Think about Iceland and how quickly their situation unraveled.

It can - and may - happen here".......more

opkin : okay...okay...okay...enough already! ....sheesh!

peteydavinci : y'all should read a whole thang! dudes...it so good ah wudda lak ta copy...

...all on it! ...oh yeah....it were me wot messed it abaht an put summa italics an stuff in...


opkin : ah don geddit!...how come a title o this piece is 'little house onna prairie'?

hoss : cos that gon be the way it gonna be dude...self sufficiency...save fo yo own lean years...

...a new american prairie....


little joe : anyone heah seen a varmint...take me to the varmint...


adam : i aint seen a BONANZA lak iss in many a long yeah...


dandg dadalang dadalang dadalang dang daannggg dang...


ONNA LIGHTER NOTE

hamish macrae : ..."I don't think Gordon Brown has any idea of the contempt in which he is held in the rest of the world. I sat at lunch next to a top European politician a few months ago and his assessment was unrepeatable. (He cheered up noticeably when I said that the PM couldn't win an election.)

carmen macrae : There'll be no tomorrow, no matter how we pretend....

....Tomorrow brings sorrow, and loneliness without end....

beulah : WTF...aint no carmen macrae onna vid.....ya limey b*stard...

thepainteronnacisternroof : watcha want...jam onnit?

THE CREDIT CRUNCH BOXED SET

yo!...the present fo someone wot lost...evvathang...innit!

WARNING...contains scenes of a sexual nature...an bad language...

...fromma start...


PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+85


...here in palookaville we take Christmas seriously...

...beulah gives me a list of all the stuff she dreams of...

...an i get ta shop till i stop...


beulah : say...painty, honey...wot yo gon want fo xmas?


painty : shucks honeh!...ah got alla wants...right heh inna loft...gotta good woman...

...wot lurvs meh...xxx! ...

...sista laverne wot dotes on meh...gotta half cat dog, a spidah wi seven legs...

...a mouse wi a tale as big as a rat! ...an zooneh ta 'vise me onna 'vestments...yeh?


beulah : why ya great big hunk a man you! ...ah gotta gets ya a likkle sumat ta open...

...onna big day...


painty : ok! ...honeh...yo win!...ah'd lakka boxed set...o credit crunch sh*t...

...ya know...a pandora type trunk wots got alla nasty, f**kin, b*stards an twats...

...wot caused a crunch...an then them as has made it worse...

...alla pictures an headlines an stuff...fancy grafix an charts...

...alla klutzes fromma main stream bollox...anna politix...

...the bailouts an busts, the dole queues(thats lines fo yo 'merican dudes)...

an foreclosures, repos an clapsed currencies...

...a box o sh*t ta stick up inna loft fo posterity...sumat ta look back on next time...

...cos sure as sh*t...some f**ker gon do it all agin...jus lak they done it all before...


MONEY DON GROW ON TREES


...ma daddy allus tol us that...an he right...in fact...they aint no such critter...

...no siree...jus one arm bandits...credit machines...creatin debt outa thin air...

...it alla lie...just a stick ta hit yo with...yo gimmee yo gold an i give you some paper...

...ha ha ha...takin a piss! ...innit?

THE RED SPECKALED SCREEN

yo!...elementary...innit..!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate capitulation day+22

...sherlock holmes is puffin on is pipe an watson oilin a old shot gun...inna drawrin room...

watson : WTF..?...birdbrain!

holmes : elementary my dear watson...there was no money...it was all an illusion...fueled by credit conjured outa nowhere by a leverage machine anna bunch a cunnin bastards...

watson : yo mean a bankers dude?

holmes : no jus a bankers man...politix anna developers anna media an alla suckers wot believed inna dream...

watson : i say!...wots ta be done?.. holmes old boy?

holmes : elementary my dear watson!...we gotta make a banks own up an
TELL THE TRUTH...

market ticker : "They(the credit markets) remain frozen because the root cause of the problem is that banks and other financial firms have been lying for more than a year, each quarter claiming to have "kitchen sinked" their losses only to report more the next quarter, and in some cases have gone on national TV to proclaim they're "well-capitalized" only days or weeks before they collapse!

The first question anyone asks when someone wishes to borrow money is whether or not they will get paid back. If the lender does not believe they will be able to be paid back then that loan will not be made, no matter how much money someone has available to them.

It really is that simple folks and yet this fundamental principle has been willfully and intentionally ignored for more than a year.

THE UNDERGASM

beulah : yo! painty shugga...why is alla em screens red?

painty : honey...thats cos a whole wurl is shittin itsen ovva a complete seizure o a financial system...

beulah : yeh..but it not gon fect us nah is it?

sadsakkapaintysh*t : nah...yo goo back a sleep honey it all be ovva by a time yo wakes up...innit!

zooneh : yo! dude...i don think it be ovva fo a while man...

saddy : i knows it man...but i aint gotta heart fo ta tella a troof...

so...nah we see wot come o buckin a market...instead o takin a likkle hit o recession
nah anna gen...we create a permanent boom onna nevva nevva an massage a markets to a point o undergasm...a whole wash day...shot ta hell...

...a illusion lost...anna crisis convulsin a suckers...a f**kin whiplash o tension explodes...
an causes iss sunami o debt...ta puke up all ovva a table cloth...

TRUST = CONFIDENCE...LOSS OF TRUST = DISASTER...

barry : "...The thing roiling markets today is not the lack of confidence; It is capital, or more accurately, the lack thereof. Thanks to a series of very poor trades—excessively leveraged and absurdly risky to boot—banks are now dramatically undercapitalized.

As we have seen in just about every historical financial crisis, the shortage of capital is the underlying cause of monetary mayhem. Too much debt, too little equity, makes any financial system cease to function." the big picture

nouriel : ..."The crisis was caused by the largest leveraged asset bubble and credit bubble in the history of humanity where excessive leveraging and bubbles were not limited to housing in the US but also to housing in many other countries and excessive borrowing by financial institutions and some segments of the corporate sector and of the public sector in many and different economies: an housing bubble, a mortgage bubble, an equity bubble, a bond bubble, a credit bubble, a commodity bubble, a private equity bubble, a hedge funds bubble are all now bursting at once in the biggest real sector and financial sector deleveraging since the Great Depression...." over at mish's

THEY THINK IT'S ALL OVER...

PALLOKAVILLE stardate capitulation day +3

PRESIDENT PAULSON

TIMES : "Despite the lack of detail and absence of any signature on the $1 trillion cheque, Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, was hailed as a hero by traders on Wall Street yesterday after he managed to erase the worst week on the New York stock markets since the 1929 Crash....

...John McCain, Mr Obama’s Republican rival, however, sought to distance himself from the bailout by claiming that the Treasury’s policy in funding private-sector bailouts should be more consistent and suggested the Federal Reserve may have gone too far in its role in recent rescue operations. Only a year ago, Mr McCain had remarked that he did not know a great deal about economics....
Perhaps seeking to indicate the difference between himself and President Bush, he said that the Treasury “must have well-developed remedies for a financial crisis”.

“With billions of dollars in public money at stake, it will not do to keep making it up as we go along,” he said....

...Carl Icahn, the billionaire shareholder activist who attempted and failed to seize control of Yahoo! this year, described the bailout as crazy and inflationary hell....The Times

mish : The market called Bernanke's Bluff, and came close to a virtual meltdown.. For now, Armageddon was Postponed as Fed Intervenes In Money Markets.

The list of reasons the financial system is unsound grew massively today, by the tune of a $1.2 trillion taxpayer funded bailout designed to bail out the wealthy at the expense of the poor.

Earlier today Paulson has the gall to state "this will cost the tax payer less than the alternative".

No one bothered to ask why it should cost the taxpayer anything at all.

Furthermore, Paulson once again proved he needs simple arithmetic lessons. Shifting losses from those who should bear them (stock and bond holders of failing companies) to the taxpayers is not going to save the taxpayers a dime, rather it is going to cost them plenty, $1.2 trillion plenty as noted in US Taxpayer: A Giant Dumpster For Illiquid Assets.

The Whole Truth And Nothing But The Truth?

Of course not.

Bernanke did not really admit the truth, he only hinted at it. Congress was too dumb to pick it up. The truth is the US financial system is insolvent... mish

peteyasaddo : yo! innit!... it aint ovva...no way! a very fat lady gon sing...

sing aht lahd...sing long an deep an hard...fo a times... ay arrrre a.. channnginnn!

yo say hi I say low..I don know why you say a high...I say a low...a lower low...I don know why you say a-high...I say a-low