Wednesday, 19 November 2008

CRY ON THE DIPS

yo!...cry me a river...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+61



...an investor...undressed as Burt Lancaster...is attempting to bring back the bull market by swimming...under water...through every pool in FUNDSVILLE...

...the story takes place in the affluent suburbs of Westchester County, New York, and focuses on Bully Bulltard, who despite being middle-aged, wants to grow his pension fund and believes that he is a shrewd investor...

...he marvels at his trail-blazing idea of "swimming the county"...

...at the beginning of the story, Bully is at a cocktail party at a local investment club and realizes that by following an imaginary chain of private and public pools in his affluent community he can literally swim to retirement...

...next we have a succession of similar scenes, as Bully enters the backyard of his neighbours...

...sometimes bursting into a party, sometimes engaging in conversation, and most of the time having a drink - but always swimming the length of their pool. Soon it becomes clear to the viewer that something has gone awry.

...at first Bully is well-received in the backyards and pools, but after finding a dried pool and waiting for a storm to pass in a gazebo, he starts to feel tired and disillusioned with his idea...

...although he is still determined to go on, he can hardly remember the excitement he first had at the investment club...

...Bully is terribly upset to find out that the Welchers' pool was dry, in fact their house was up for sale...

...he recognizes that his memory must be failing him or he is repressing unpleasant facts for not remembering what had happened to the other bulls...

...at the Halloran residence, Mrs. Halloran tells Bully she is sorry to hear of his misfortunes which, again his memory seeming to fail him, cannot remember, although Mrs. Halloran mentions Bully selling his house and something about his children...

at the Biswangers’ he is received as a gate-crasher and even their barman treats him with disrespect...

...he overhears Mrs. Biswanger saying that someone, possibly Bully himself, showed up one day asking for money since he went bankrupt...

...further on, bully's former mistress Shirley Adams, whom he cannot even clearly remember having an affair with, tells him that she won't "give him another cent".

...several signs indicate that time is passing more rapidly than Bully realizes...

...he slowly observes that each pool is significantly colder and much more difficult to swim...

...by the end of the story, Bully is unable to recognize the constellations of the midsummer sky, instead finding the northern constellations Andromeda, Cepheus, and Cassiopeia, implying a change of season....

...in the story's conclusion, Bully reaches his retirement...

...as he looks inside the locked and deserted home, he wonders why his money is not there anymore...

in fact...it's all gone!

REVIEW

...John Cheever's "misery in suburbia" short stories, brief and to the point, have always proven excellent TV fodder. Director Frank Perry's The Swimmer, adapted for the screen by Perry's wife Eleanor, is a rare, and for the most part successful, attempt at offering a Cheever story in feature-length form. Dressed only in swimming trunks throughout the film, Burt Lancaster plays a wealthy, middle-aged advertising man, embarked on a long and revelatory journey through suburban Connecticut. Lancaster slowly makes his way to his split-level home by travelling from house to house, and from swimming pool to swimming pool...."

petey : don go near the water...don do the swim...


Monday, 17 November 2008

THE BOOT GOES IN

yo!...prince atta dance...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+59

...ok...this'n be a update on that un


...beatin up on george...part two...


MACHIAVELLI


...Superb at ice-hockey, a prince at the dance...

...He's fierce as tigers, secretive as plants.

...my dad allas called im that...mandelson...that is...can't think why...


...anyway here he be...a joinin in a bellyachin about po ol george...fo tellin a truth...

mandy :
"What George Osborne was trying to do in his remarks was undermine the confidence of markets and undermine the confidence of traders that the medium-term direction of government policy is sound.

"That's why what he was doing, frankly, was reckless and irresponsible."

He insisted that the Government's stimulus package, which is to be unveiled in next week's Pre-Budget Report, was necessary to revitalise the economy and restore confidence among consumers and lenders.

He added that this was "internationally recognised", in the wake of the weekend's G20 meeting in Washington.

He also accused Mr Osborne and David Cameron, the Conservative leader, of contradicting themselves on the economy. "Their policies change from week to week," Lord Mandelson said.


ossie : On Sunday, Mr Osborne launched a robust defence of his response to the global economic crisis, insisting that he was "absolutely sure" that he was "doing the right thing".

The shadow chancellor said that he had a duty to tell the public "the truth" about Britain's economic problems and denied accusations that he had risked worsening the problem by warning of a run on sterling.

He refused to back a programme of tax cuts being drawn up by Gordon Brown which is expected to be unveiled in next week's Pre-Budget Report.

Mr Osborne has faced criticism from sections of the Conservative Party over his handling of the economic crisis amid claims he failed to foresee the seriousness of the problem. Some right-wing peers and MPs have called for him to be replaced.

The party's opinion poll ratings have fallen sharply and David Cameron has refused to call for big tax cuts - instead focusing on the need to keep Government borrowing under control.

Speaking on BBC's Andrew Marr show, Mr Osborne said that the approach had been correct and that the party had no plans to alter its stance. "My job as shadow chancellor is to tell the British people the truth about the British economy," he said. "The truth is that it is the worst prepared economy in the world for recession.

times : ..."Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, also told Sky News: "All I would say is this, that a few weeks ago the Tories offered a bipartisan approach, now that has clearly gone to the wind."

Mr Osborne’s position is also considered to have been weakened by a lack of vocal support from David Cameron. The Shadow Chancellor was also forced to dismiss suggestions that his authority had been undermined because Mr Cameron had called in Oliver Letwin, his predecessor, to draw up potential government spending cuts.

Meanwhile, a significant party donor, the retail millionaire Lord Kalms, called for Mr Osborne to be replaced with a "heavyweight" figure.

But the Shadow Business Secretary, Alan Duncan, rallied around his frontbench colleague, saying he was "absolutely right" to raise the danger of a run on sterling. "I’d rather have George Osborne telling the truth than Gordon Brown charging around the world on a journey of deceit," he said.


torybulliestoo : VIDEO HERE

Sunday, 16 November 2008

...LET FIST AGIN

yo...meatin the beat...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+58

...nobody lak a troof man...a bollox is busy agin...beatin up onna stiff wot tellin a troof...

...george osbourne...innit...tellin how a sterlin gon be mega red...an no f**ker wannit...

...alla cos a 'conomy screwed by economic policy o a unreconsructed labour...

...a bollox mus support Admiral Brown ta go rahn kikkin po likkle tory ass fo...

...tellin a truth...innit!

Friday, 14 November 2008

THE FUTURE IS NOT WHAT IT WAS

yo!...crystal bollox...innit!


PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+56


...show me the way to go home...ahm tired an i wanna go ta bed...

...the story so far...

...a Christmas song is jangling inna background as George Baily careers across the slushy boulevard of Bedford Falls...

...he wishes he hadnay been born...

...harry Potter wants ta rename Bedford Falls...PALOOKAVILLE...

...Potter has magicked away the credit from the thrift that Baily runs...

...the stupid shmuck thought that ordinary people could profit from home ownership...

...wotta dunce!

...the wand was really the handle of the one armed bandit from the Vegas FED...

...Potter made it lever up the mortgage market...credit became the oil of the economic machine...

...then, at holiday time, while every one was out buyin stuff...
...potter waved the wand an the credit disappeared...

...puff went the smoke an mirrors...sh*t went the bloggers...jingle went the mail...

beulah : aye...we're aaalll...doooooommed......dooommed ah tell ee..


THE FUTURE THAT WAS

...people believed in the bubble an cashed in their paper gains on their homes as if they would keep on growing forever...

...Potter has now got them by the short an curlies an is lookin forward to explosive rental growth...

...he has been helped by the governments as they needed him to run this sh*t in order to maintain the illusion of prosperity upon which the voters smoked...

...now down has come cradle...baby an all...the keys is inna mail a jinglin an a janglin...

...an a further a property values fall...the further a debts rise...the bollox believe that things will bottom without the value of houses bottoming...

...well...good luck with that!...

peteyMacNeice : ..."the glass is fallin hour by hour, the glass will fall fo evva...

...but if you break the bloody glass...you'll no hold up the weather...



Thursday, 13 November 2008

THINGS AINT WHAT THEY USED TA BE

yo!..rally postponed...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+55

...today on bloomberg...

Stocks in U.S. Slump on Economy; S&P 500 Falls to Lowest Level Since 2003
U.S. Jobless Rolls Reach 25-Year High, Exports Drop as Growth Abroad Sinks
GE Sticks With Dividend Policy as Shares Fall Below $15, Lowest Since 1996
Goldman Sachs Employee Pay Will Be `Dramatically' Hit by Crisis, Palm Says
Bulgari Abandons 2008 Earnings, Sales Forecasts on Slumping Jewelry Demand

vince : whahoppen muskie?

beulah : that freakin paulie wants lokkin up...bustin a banks an fixin a handout!...

laverne : does the bottom look big in this?

ambrose : .."
The modern warning to us all is the "Lost Decade" in Japan, a loose term for the on-again, off-again slump that ultimately led to zero interest rates and – when that failed – to the printing of money. After 18 years, the Nikkei stock index is now trading at 8,700 – down from a peak of nearly 40,000. House prices have fallen by half. Yet after all the stimulus, the country is once again tipping back into deflation.

Governor King said Britain was likely to avoid this fate. "We've taken action much earlier than was the case in Japan," he said.

Not everybody agrees, even after the shock and awe cut of 1.5 percentage points by the MPC. Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale, has long warned that central banks in the Anglo-Saxon countries have stored up trouble by stoking credit booms, and may find it harder than they think to engineer a soft-landing.

"This could easily go the way of Japan. It is true that Bank of England has moved faster, but Japan was a local bubble. This time it is the 'great unwind' on a global scale with leverage spaghetti everywhere," he said.

"The monetary authorities don't have foggiest idea themselves whether this is going to work. They're crossing their fingers and hoping," he said...."telegraph


petey : ahm feelin...in..sec..ure...ya mite not lurv me...any..more...


market ticker : ..."Without "silly credit", which cannot be restarted or maintained, we sell 11 million automobiles in the US a year, instead of 17.5 million. We sell one million fewer homes a year. Leisure travel dollars spent will fall by 20% and perhaps more. We sell a lot less "bling" of various sorts, whether it be $300 cell phones (the $50 one makes calls you know, and doesn't require a $100/month service plan either!), $5 lattes or $10 martinis. This is reality my friends, and there is no escaping it..."

Wednesday, 12 November 2008

DEFLATION

yo...

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+54

...the story so far...

...some o a folks is sayin at 'flation gon be IN...an others is sayin it be gon be DE...

...here in PALOOKAVILLE we don know much abaht nuthin that caint be...

...whittled wiya knife...or cooked inna pot...

...so wot we duz is...sniff arahnd onna net an stuff n see wotta bloggas gotta say bout it...

...the regla bollox is sometimes useful too but usually abaht a month or two behind a best blogs...

THE GREAT DEBATE

'cat : yo...spider dude!...who is fairest of um all?

spider : don ast me man...ah jus guz an gets em fromma web innit?

opkin : seven freakin legs man!...wotta kinda spider is that?

beulah : yo shut yo gob ratfink...yo a rat anyhah...innit!

laverne : sure as sh*t iss a slump...

petey : ah thaank mish is a main man dudes!...an he say it gon be DEflation an then some...

zooneh : not fo nuthin is this painty dude our hero...

petey : i reads mish an ticker fo a hard stuff an barry an armageddon anna ninja too...

...fo a market take i laks ta read...slope an luna an ninja...

...fo a well researched economic hit i lak a news an econ...

...course i reads nouriel an john authers an AEP...an alla dudes inna side bar...

...ah guess ahm a miserable git an all...but a bearish case seems ta mek sense ta me...

...it aint ovva...fat lady still aint sang...ya nevva can tell but it look lak lower lows yet some...

...if they a rally ta christmas...then...include me aht...


Monday, 10 November 2008

TWO MINUTES SILENCE

yo!...11th hour,11th day,11th month...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+54


two minutes silence at 11 :00


spider :

opkin :

halfcat :

beulah :

laverne :

peteypaint :

STRANGE POST

yo!...feedback...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE : POINTS OF VIEW : stardate : capitulation day+53


spider : ...strange post man...

beulah : sucker lost it...

laverne : twat!

opkin : Dunce!!...

'cat : hooouuuwwwwwwwlllllllll...

machinepetey : ah allas lakked at story dudes...i seen it onna telly in blakanwite...
...wen ah wuz a kid...

...seems ta me lak it holda similarities ta a sh*t wot goin dahn...innit?...

...anyway ah posted it cos...ah jus wanted ta...love it or leave it sucker...


Sunday, 9 November 2008

THE MENDING APPARATUS

yo!...1909...innit!


PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+53

THE RED WEED

..." This was the Book of the Credit Machine...In it were instructions against every possible contingency...

...If she was hot or cold or dyspeptic or at a loss for a word, she went to the book...

...and it told her which button to press... ...The Central Committee published it...

...In accordance with a growing habit, it was richly bound...


ALL PRAISE THE MACHINE

..."The Machine," they exclaimed, "feeds us and clothes us and houses us...

...through it we speak to one another, through it we see one another, in it we have our being...


...The Machine is the friend of ideas and the enemy of superstition...

...the Machine is omnipotent, eternal; blessed is the Machine."

LATER...

..."The Machine stops."...

..."What do you say?"

"The Machine is stopping, I know it, I know the signs."

...She burst into a peal of laughter. He heard her and was angry, and they spoke no more...


"Can you imagine anything more absurd?" she cried to a friend...

..."A man who was my son believes that the Machine is stopping...It would be impious if it was not mad."

"The Machine is stopping?" her friend replied. "What does that mean? The phrase conveys nothing to me."

"Nor to me."

"He does not refer, I suppose, to the trouble there has been lately with the music?"

"Oh no, of course not. Let us talk about music."

VOTE...MACHINE..!

"The Machine," they exclaimed, "feeds us and clothes us and houses us; through it we speak to one another, through it we see one another, in it we have our being....

The Machine is the friend of ideas and the enemy of superstition...

...the Machine is omnipotent, eternal; blessed is the Machine."


THE CREDIT MACHINE STOPS

"Have you complained to the authorities?"

"Yes, and they say it wants mending, and referred me to the Committee of the Mending Apparatus...."

...No one confessed the Machine was out of hand...

...Year by year it was served with increased efficiency and decreased intelligence...

...The better a man knew his own duties upon it, the less he understood the duties of his neighbour...

...and in all the world there was not one who understood the monster as a whole.


...Those master brains had perished...

...They had left full directions, it is true, and their successors had each of them mastered a portion of those directions.

But Humanity, in its desire for comfort, had over-reached itself...

...It had exploited the riches of nature too far...

...Quietly and complacently, it was sinking into decadence, and progress had come to mean...

...the progress of the Machine.


THE CENTRAL SCRUTINIZER


...To attribute these two great developments to the Central Committee, is to take a very narrow view of civilization.

The Central Committee announced the developments, it is true, but they were no more the cause of them than were the kings of the imperialistic period the cause of war.

Rather did they yield to some invincible pressure, which came no one knew whither, and which, when gratified, was succeeded by some new pressure equally invincible...

...To such a state of affairs it is convenient to give the name of progress.

petey : it were me wot messed abaht wiyit but...a story is from E M Forster


U.S. Weekly Leading Index Now at Six Decade Low

ZOMBIE ECONOMICS

yo!...nite o a livin ded...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+52

...all things must pass...even the car giants are mortal...the banks are mortal...

...in the long term...all are dead...

THE BUBBLE FLOATS BEFORE...THE SPECTRE STALKS BEHIND

...some time during eternity some guys show up...an one of them...

...who shows up real late...is a kind of economist...

...from some hick type place......like PALOOKAVILLE...

...who claims he is hep to what drives economies...

...and that the cat who really laid it on us is...keynes...

THEY BELIEVE

...they believe they can make water run up hill...that dying industries can be saved...

...that banks are too big to fail yet fail some...

...that votes can be bought with promises that will be forgotten...


...they believe that your savings are theirs to tax and theirs to raid...

...that your children can be left to pay the bill...

...that pork is meat and drink and the barrel is bottomless...


...they believe in dummies that they plan to educate down...

...and in outdated ideas from a distant past...

...they believe in nothing but themselves and their plans...


...the failing will be bailed out at the expense of the efficient...

...the future will be hostage to the past...

...the last shall be first and the first...last!


petey : read this





Friday, 7 November 2008

BUY ONE GET ONE FREE

yo!...

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+50

...the Emperor has been caught flashing he dick instead o wearin a latest fashions...

...some sucker took his finger outa damn an pointed at a Edude...an said...
... "is that a dick or wot"!

...almost immediately..they was a great intake o breath...an alla bubbles burst...

...dahn come baby..cradle an all...

...nah ya can git almost any thang yo wants...fo half price or less...

...an they still aint no takers...

...most o a financial bollox is sayin...itta buy signal...an before ya know it...
alla stocks be risin...anna sun shinin...anna normal service be resumed...


'cat : yo boss...is we is or is we aint buyers o stox man?

beulah : sucker aint gon bust ma pension on no shock an scares...

laverne : shudda nevah married at painty b*astard an all...

spider : seven f*ckin legs man...wot fo i got only seven...

opkin : nex f*cker calls me a rat...gon get his ass kicked...

bearpetey : ahm in cash mostly innit!...ahm lookin atta bollox an am...
...not convinced o a case fo investin any much cep onna nibbly type way...

zooneh : this chap seems ta have a take onnit...

Paul J Lamont : ..."As we stated last October (the month of the stock market’s peak); “the stock market is a sideshow, it can adjust to the economic reality very quickly as it did in 1929 (especially with credit losses already in place).”

Only misconceptions about the Great Depression cause a dismissal of the similarities. Commodities are correcting sharply as forecast. The U.S. Dollar has gained double-digits against other currencies while the Yen is “soaring to 13 year highs.”

The U.S. stock market (DJIA) has fallen below the ‘line in the sand’ described in March. And European countries are faring much worse as expected. Even our forecast for Mega Thrift is becoming more plausible.

How Low Can It Go?

As mentioned in April of 2007, “When the effects of inflation have been extracted, the DJIA is much more cyclical than Wall Street promoters would care to admit.”

Steve Williams of Cycle Pro has updated his inflation-adjusted Dow Jones Industrial Average chart (below) which we previously cited. The recent sell off seems insignificant when viewed over the last 200 years. Our target is unchanged; we expect the market to swing to the lower end of the trend channel.


http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2008/11/4/saupload_image004.jpg

On the way to the bottom, the market must relieve bearish sentiment (make you forget your fear). It can only do this through sharp powerful rallies (where we all laugh for a day with CNBC on how close we came to the brink). We have described these as “rocket-launched (oh they’ve saved us) bear market rallies.” Investors who cheer these sharp up moves as a sign of the bottom should take note of the chart provided by Tom Denham from Elliotwave.com below.

Inflation - Negative Over the Next 5 Years

Because of high debt levels, we have continually warned of a deflationary collapse. Now according to Nouriel Roubini,

Finally, and more important, yields on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) due in five years or less have now become higher than yields on conventional Treasuries of similar maturity. The difference between yields on five-year Treasuries and five-year TIPS, known as the break-even rate, fell to minus 0.43 percentage points. This is a record. Since the difference between the conventional Treasuries and TIPS is a proxy for expected inflation, the TIPS market is now signaling that investors expect inflation to be negative over the next five years, as a severe recession is ahead of us.

TIPS are signaling negative inflation for the next 5 years and inflation below 1% for the next 10 years! Therefore we would like to reiterate our call to investors to preserve their portfolios with U.S. Treasury Bills (interest bearing cash). Higher returns require more risk, which in our view will not be rewarded in this type of environment...." seeking alpha


bearpetey : thanx ta alla bloggers(specially em atta side bar) fo bein there in this sh*tty time an tellin alla suckers a troof an savin us all fromma msn bollox an...poverty...

Tuesday, 4 November 2008

WHAT'S YOURS IS THEIRS, WHAT'S THEIRS, THEIR OWN

yo!...pornographic...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate capitulation day+48


...the very thing that... makes them rich... will...make you poooor!!!...


halfcat : yo boss...jus wot is it abaht all iss crisis sh*t that makes yo so uncool?

plastered : 'cat man...i jus don lak bullsh*t b*stards innit!...

...i wuz ovva at barry's an click a link ta bloomboig ta watch jimbo onna vid man...

...an he speak a lotta sense...not jus on investin but also nailed the people who are causin alla crap...

...seems lak mish an jimbo see the fed, an paulie, an alla wizards o oz as...
...the problem an not the solution...

...itta politix wot ruinin a future...proppin up a zombie banks an zombie companies...

...instead a lettin a good take ovva a assets o a bad...they bustin a public finances...
...ta protec they friends!

'cat : yo!...chill dude!..don go gettin poplexed...it all loada bollox anyhow innit?

peteypoplex : WTF man!..me pension goin dahn a pluggole innit!...
...me house value sinkin by a minute... freakin deflation nah...
follered by hyper-inflation whenna liquity jexions kick in...

...an alla time a politix gettin massive index linked pensions...

...fo f**kin up...


OH YEAH...

...an theys this..

bloomberg : ..."The U.K. spent its way into trouble. It can't spend its way out again. Taxes have risen too high, and debt has soared out of control. The nation needs to pay down its obligations and lessen its dependence on financial services. There is no reason it can't make that transition with hard work and some belt-tightening.

A final splurge of public spending will only postpone that adjustment and create a real risk of economic disaster."

(Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)


petey : my italics and emphasis

Sunday, 2 November 2008

LAND OF THE FALLING SUN

yo!..long shot kick a bucket...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate capitulation day+46

...the story so far...whilst innocently playing a game of pass the parcel...the world panicked as the music stopped an insde the parcel was anti-money...

...hisssss went the air from the credit bubble as the balloon went down...

...help cried the banks...

...save our suckers cried the politix...

peteysan : i been worryin abaht japan an stuff fo a while nah...innit?

zooneh : boss...yo shud see iss artikle fromma Sunday Times man!

stephen : ..."Almost 20 years ago Japan entered a protracted financial crisis, bear market and economic downturn. What lessons does that experience hold as the West struggles with a financial crisis?

The Japanese bubble peaked at the end of 1989 when the Nikkei Stock Average hit 38,915. Last Monday the index closed at 7,162, a fall of more than 80% over 19 years and the lowest close since October 1982.

At the peak of the boom in 1989, there were 19 big banks in Japan. By 2008, this had shrunk to eight. Of those only one still bears the name it did in 1989. The rest have failed, been swallowed up or nationalised...

.....The specifics of every banking crisis vary by country and by cycle, but the general forces are the same. When expanding gearing gives way to contracting debt, the stage is set for a liquidity crisis.

For Japan, this occurred in 1997-98. Two large brokers and one big money-centre bank failed, followed a few months later by the nationalisation of two long-term credit banks. A similar liquidity crisis has struck the West.

It is not obvious that the process in the US and the UK has been shorter. If you define the stock-market peak as 1999-2000 and the rally since early 2003 as no more than a relief rally (analogous to Japan’s recovery from 1992 to early 1996), then the timetable is actually similar.

A liquidity crisis has a sharp impact on lending to other parts of the economy. As a result, the economy slows and the debt built up by households and businesses becomes harder to support. This gives rise to the third and final phase: a solvency crisis. Japan’s big banks reached that point about five years after the liquidity crisis.

Three kinds of adjustment are needed before stability can return. First, asset values must discount the credit- constrained world. That is already happening with a vengeance, but take care not to assume too quickly that the process is complete.

A sucker rally (or three) should be expected, to make sure that hope is extinguished before share and house prices can return to any sustainable rising trend.

The Nikkei plunged about 40% in 1990-92, rallied by about one third, then traded between 15,000 and 20,000 from 1992 to early 2000. This range included three rallies of more than 30%....

...Third, the real economy must also adjust to the new credit constraints. In Japan’s case, car sales, land prices, bank lending and the household spending index have, like share prices, returned to the levels of the early 1980s.

Corporate gearing ratios are at levels not seen for 40 years. Its economy has been through a wrenching adjustment over a long time.

Could it take this long in the West? Experience has taught that we should not rule out such a possibility. You could argue that the imbalances in the West are greater and have been allowed to build for longer than in Japan. It is that build-up of imbalances which will determine the scale and duration of this adjustment period rather than the actions of politicians and regulators (who have a tendency first to deny, then to fight the last battle rather than this one).

full article here

petey : it gon be this way heh too innit!

oh yeh..an it wuz me wot itallicked it cetra...

Friday, 31 October 2008

SLOW BOAT FROM CHINA

yo!..woe the luck...innit!

Susan Loesser : ...""I'd like to get you on a slow boat to China" was a well-known phrase among poker players, referring to a person who lost steadily and handsomely. My father turned it into a romantic song, placing the title in the mainstream of catch-phrases in 1947. visit site

mish : ..."If nobody is buying your trucks, you don't need to rent a vessel to carry that shiny new 18-wheeler to its new owner. Hence the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks the cost of shipping goods and commodities, fell below 1,000 this week for the first time in six years.

Put another way, it is now almost 90 percent cheaper to ship goods over the oceans than it was at the beginning of the year. And because the huge vessels known as capesize ships can't currently charge much more than their daily operating cost of about $6,000 per day, their captains have slowed down to economize on fuel and save money, to about 8.68 knots from 10.33 knots in July, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

It isn't just the oceans that are emptying. Air freight traffic dropped 7.7 percent in September, according to the latest figures from the International Air Transport Association. That's the steepest decline since the trade group began compiling the data in January 2003." mish

cappinpetey : oh...an iss..."

ambrose : ..."In Eastern Europe, the brief respite following Hungary's $25bn rescue package from the IMF was already giving way to fresh angst. Romania was forced to deny persistent rumours that it was seeking an emergency loan from the fund.

The country's prime minister, Calin Popescu Tariceanu, may have inadvertently fuelled fears when he told local TV that the global economy was sinking like the Titanic. "On the lower levels, people are in water up to their necks, while on the upper floors the music still plays on, just as it did in the film. And those people listening to the people listening to the music, not knowing that the Titanic has hit an iceberg, that's us here in Romania. That's just what we're like," he said.

dexansamclem : ..."The idea, of course, was that traveling by boat to China was about as long and slow a trip as one could imagine. Loesser moved the phrase from the poker table to a more romantic setting. The song was very popular in its time (and has been revived and sung from time to time over the years by such notables as Kay Kyser, Bing Crosby, Jimmy Buffett, and Frank Sinatra, among others). The phrase then moved into general parlance to mean anything that takes a lonnnnnnng time." visit site

pokerpetey : yeah...lak a bear market...innit!

SLOW BOAT TO JAPAN

yo!..turnin japanese but wiyout a dosh...innit!

paintybollox : back from Firenze nah...an it all still crap!

lamont : ..."Before the Government adopts full-blown Keynesian policies, it should examine their effect on Japan after the bursting of its “property bubble”. Between 1991 and 1998, Japan spent 100 trillion yen on new railway lines and other public works. Little good did it do. Its economy stagnated. Since 1991, Japan’s government debt as a proportion of GDP rose from 64 per cent of GDP in 1991 to 171 per cent this year. Japan is in a debt trap it can’t escape.

Gordon Brown’s policies would take Britain down the Japanese route — with one important difference. Japan runs large trade surpluses and can fund its borrowing from domestic savers. The British Government depends on international capital markets to finance its borrowing. Deficits and excessive borrowing may not have mattered when the world was awash with money. That has changed. Confidence is all.

Today’s bust was inevitable. But recovery will follow. The economy adjusts. Prices fall, buyers come back into the market, confidence slowly returns. It is mistaken government action that turns recessions into depressions .

Adding higher government borrowing to private sector borrowing does not improve the performance of the economy. If consumption has grown too fast, increasing government spending is the equivalent of driving through a red light.

Gordon Brown is like a gambler on a losing streak, doubling up by spending. More huge tax increases lie ahead. Because he has already exhausted the scope for stealth taxes, his policies mean we could see VAT raised to 20 per cent or the basic rate of income tax heading back towards 30p. One thing we can be sure of: it will be horrible. But once the consequences of Gordon Brown’s fiscal management are plain, it will take a generation before the voters trust Labour again. Times

Thursday, 23 October 2008

Wednesday, 22 October 2008

PUSH ME PULL YOU

yo!..all the fun of the fair...innit!

petey : ...the lever has come off the one armed bandit money machine
at the VEGUS FED an now none of the buttons are workin...

zooneh : ...f**kin candyfloss...innit!

beulah : lookyhear atta bollox...

Insight: Shattered illusions of liquidity

..."The substantial build-up of foreign reserves in central banks of emerging markets and developing countries has puzzled economists. As identified by David Roche, of research boutique Independent Strategy, and others, the large build up of central bank reserves is really a liquidity creation scheme that relies on the dollar’s favoured position in trade and as a reserve currency.

Deterioration in the US economy and the issue of more government debt to support the financial sector may increase pressure on the US sovereign rating and the dollar. US government support for financial institutions is approaching 6 per cent of GDP compared to less than 4 per cent at the time of the Savings and Loans crisis. This may set off a further phase in the global de-leveraging as large losses on dollar investments slow down the international credit creation system.

Gillian Tett of the FT coined the phrase “candy floss money”. Financial technology spun available “real” money into an exaggerated bubble that, like its fairground equivalent, collapses ultimately. The emerging market reserves system is another dimension of this candy floss money.

The perceived abundance of liquidity was, in reality, merely an illusion created by high levels of debt and leverage as well as the structure of global capital flows. As the financial system de-leverages, it is becoming clear, unsurprisingly, that available capital is more limited than previously estimated.

In recent years, money was cheap and other assets were expensive. As each of the global economy’s credit creation engines breaks down and systemic leverage reduces, money becomes scarce and expensive triggering adjustments in asset prices in a reversal of the process.

Mark Twain once advised: “Don’t part with your illusions. When they are gone you may still exist, but you have ceased to live”. In the current financial crisis, many illusions have been shattered. The quantum of available capital and the munificent resources of central banks and sovereign wealth funds may be another of the accepted ”facts” that may be revealed to be an illusion." FT

Fed offers $540bn to prop up money funds

..."The Fed move highlights the extent to which policymakers are concerned about US money markets, even as conditions have improved, with interbank rates dropping. Policymakers are also worried that moves to prop up US banks may have undermined money funds, which compete with bank savings accounts. FT


market ticker : ..."Horsecrap.

Bernanke is doing what Paulson tried and failed at in the "free" (coerced by arm-twisting by Paulson) market through executive fiat, and he is printing money to fund it. Exactly how much money he is printing (as opposed to lending) depends on the precise amount of overpayment that is being induced through these so-called "loans", but that it is happening is not open to question.

Why has this become necessary?

Ben and Hank produced a dislocation in this section of the marketplace by favoring other debt instruments with federal guarantees, thereby forcing money out of these instruments.

This in turn created major problems for money market funds who buy this paper as a routine matter of course in that when they needed to redeem deposits they suddenly found no buyers for the securities, as those people had fled to other instruments that Ben had guaranteed payment on!

As each new facility is rolled out by Ben and Hank a new area of debt becomes backstopped by the government in some fashion, thereby forcing money out of other instruments and causing those instruments to become distressed!

We are rapidly reaching the point where only The Fed and Treasury are providing any lending at all!...read the whole article


petey : Beware below, Bedlam above,
Halls of mirrors and tunnels of love.

Sensory shrapnel, bullets of bliss,
Hands that hold, lips that kiss.
Generate spells, create confusion,
Expectation, cruel illusion.

Money in slot, hand on lever,
Chills the soul, causes fever!

Sunday, 19 October 2008

V SIGN FOR THE POOR

yo!..pension politix issue...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate capitulation day+32

...Admiral Brown is onna bridge o a dorkship TURNERPRIZE...struttin arahn pretendin ta be a great dictator...practicin salutes an stuff...

...all around him the economy lies in ruins...frozen by the withdrawal o the great credit binge of the labour years...

...he hopes to put the leverage handle back onna broken money machine an restart a BOOM wotz BUST...

...he wants first time buyers ta bailout a property market by buyin houses before they become fair value again...

THE GRAPES OF WRATH

liam : "I'm staggered – there is no other word for it – at the way Gordon Brown is strutting around the world like a pumped-up super-hero.

Does he have no shame? I know he's the Prime Minister; I'm meant to show due respect. But I'm still forced to ask myself – what planet is this man on?

I don't deny there is merit in the UK bail-out scheme. Some of us have argued for months that only "direct capitalisation" of the banks would even begin to break this crisis. Brown's plan is certainly better that the "made in America" version involving the state buying-up Wall Street's bad assets, without insisting on equity ownership. US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson dubbed his rescue package a "bazooka". A smaller armament would have been more apt – a peashooter, perhaps?

None of this remotely justifies Brown's triumphant tone. For one thing, the global financial system remains in very deep waters. The British economy is also a mess – with the blundering errors Brown made as Chancellor coming back to haunt us all." Sunday Telegraph


irwin : ..."Politics may make strange bedfellows, but economic crises make even stranger ones. Gordon Brown, a free trader, now finds that Nicolas Sarkozy, an arch-protectionist, has virtues he had not previously noticed. It seems that they are united by three things. First, they believe, or at least are pretending that they believe, that the current ills originated in the United States. You might remember: these are the same United States whose entrepreneurship Chancellor Brown lauded to all who would listen, before becoming prime minister and slipping easily into the anti-American mode that now dominates his public and private discourse.

Second, Brown and Sarkozy, along with their EU partners, believe that now is the time to put the former hegemon in its place. America, they believe, is paralysed by the lame-duck status of its president. It will, they reason, be forced to go along with any European proposals for what is variously called a “new financial architecture” and a “new world order”. The joy on the faces of EU leaders as they gather for their conferences can be seen in news photos. Never mind that the banking systems of their countries are on the verge of collapse, or that they are headed for a recession deeper and longer than the one the United States will suffer. Now is their chance to do things that the Americans might not like, but can’t stop.

Third, Brown, Sarkozy & Co have always done what President Ronald Reagan accused his own bureaucracy of doing: “If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. If it stops moving, subsidise it.” Brown, long famous for profligate spending and mindless regulations, now proposes to subsidise homebuying by first-time buyers so that they can catch the falling knife that is the house-price market. And his new-found friends in the EU have never hesitated to increase their tax-funded budgets, and draft regulations at such a rate that even the lobbying firms in Brussels cannot follow all the action....

........For Brown, such a Bretton Woods II would put him in the role played by John Maynard Keynes in 1944, when his biographer Robert Skidelsky reports Keynes “was the Churchill of this [financial] world, and no one could have taken his place”.

That wouldn’t be the first time, and won’t be the last time, the prime minister has likened his role in coping with the financial crisis to Churchill’s role in coping with Hitler." Sunday Times

WEATHER FORECAST

john waples : "Anyone still holding on to hopes that the financial problems have been solved and that we will not have problems in the wider economy is living in cloud cuckoo land. Over the past year we have seen an excess of debt being blown out of the banking system and the same will now happen in the real economy.

Every day I am hearing first hand from small and medium-sized businesses that are getting bullied by banks. As a result, the corporate casualty list, which so far has been contained, is going to grow rapidly. All companies that I speak to have put capital-spending programmes on hold for the next 12 months, staff numbers are being cut and profit forecasts that looked attainable only six months ago are being trimmed back.

From the collapse of Northern Rock to the part nationalisation of HBOS and Royal Bank of Scotland, it took more than a year to recognise the depth of the problems in the financial system. It may take the same length of time for the British economy to sort itself out. The stock market has already priced in a lot of this pain and has singled out those highly indebted companies that are going to struggle to survive. But so far there has been a lag between the rapid fall in UK equities and the corporate news that will inevitably follow.

It is going to be a very demanding time for company bosses, who will have to make tough decisions. Britain will pull through and the government appears keen to prime the system, but anyone who is delaying taking action should think again. This is the time that British business has to show its mettle and, if it does, it will come out the other side in much better shape.

As a newspaper we will endeavour to identify success stories. But I have had too many conversations with too many senior industrialists and other businessmen to ignore the shake-out that is coming." Sunday Times


THE PENSIONS OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR PAID FOR BY THE POOR

petey : jobs is bein lost wot will never be got back by those who will pay the real, lasting, price of browns hubris...while he an his govt. pals bask in the warmth o their Guaranteed, cast iron, index linked and unbelievably generous PUBLIC PAID PENSIONS...

...brown has robbed private pension funds of £5 billion+ per year since deciding that the poor should be hoodwinked into financing the state...while MP's voted themselves better pensions and higher pay!

1998 buget : "However, the most controversial shock and the biggest regular revenue raiser concerned abolition of the tax clawbacks available to pension funds - known as gross funds which receive dividends tax free. When companies pay out dividends they deduct what is called advance corporation tax. The amount is credited to them when they pay ordinary tax and at the same time the gross fund investors claim the ACT levy from Inland Revenue. The loss of this will amount to �4-billion in a full year rising to an estimated �5.4-billion. Brown claimed this loss would be bearable without cutting pension benefits because - thanks to rising markets - most funds had a substantial surplus over their liabilities.

However, the pension industry calls the abolition (which will pare about 0.75% a year off pensions) robbery and short term expediency for raiding people's long term savings. Companies reckon the "top up" required for in-house pension schemes will largely wipe out the cut in corporation tax while the local authorities claim that it will force them to put up property rates sharply." Business Times

peteypension : nah jus compound it up every year since 2008...money taken from our savings to pay for their pensions!




Saturday, 18 October 2008

THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW

Y0! f*ckin freezin...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate capitulation day+31

...Admiral Brown has won the battle of the media...

...he has arranged for our money to be given to the BANKERS so that they can sit on it and feel warmer...

...evvabody happy innit!..bollox!

...itz bankers 10 - taxpayers 0... inna contest ta see who guz BONUS or BUST...

...they think itz all ovva...

........MASSIVE TEMPERATURE DROP..!...

FINANCIAL WINTER : ECONOMIES FREEZE OVER

mish : ..."
  • US leading indicators have biggest weekly plunge in 37 years.
  • US leading indicators are at 33-year low.
  • US Consumer sentiment drops most on record to 57.5 from 70.3, the biggest decline since monthly records began in 1978.
  • US big-ticket purchase sentiment slumped to 58.9, the lowest level ever, from 75.
  • Canada Consumer Confidence Drops to 26-Year Low.
  • German investor expectations slumped to minus 63 from minus 41.1 in September.
  • French manufacturing confidence slumped in September to the lowest in 15 years.
edmond : " Britain faces deflation for first time since 1960

Britain will slump into deflation next year for the first time in half a century, experts have warned.

For the first time since 1960, the cost of living will start to shrink next year, in a worrying parallel of the Japanese "disease" of the 1990s, according to new research.

The news comes amid growing speculation that the Bank of England will soon be forced to cut borrowing costs to 2pc or below, taking them to their lowest level since it was founded in 1694.
Telegraph

700 BILLION BONUS BAILOUT

guardian : Wall Street banks in $70bn staff payout

"Pay and bonus deals equivalent to 10% of US government bail-out package"

FANTASY ISLAND

simon : ..."As we reported on Friday, Mr Brown has promised to maintain his spending pledges on capital projects and public services. This is despite the fact that the economic prospects predicted at the time these pledges were made are now fantasy. Growth is non-existent, tax revenues are tumbling, borrowing is ballooning, yet Mr Brown thinks it is business as usual.

I have quoted Jim Callaghan before and, for Mr Brown's edification if no one else's, I do so again: you can't spend your way out of a recession.

Mr Brown thinks he knows better. Having also borrowed money to bail out the banks - and who is to say that will work, or that more banks might not need assistance? - the total borrowing this year is predicted to be £90 billion- £100 billion.

Given how wildly inaccurate most earlier predictions have been, we can assume that is a conservative estimate. Mr Brown has learned nothing. The debt will take generations to pay off. I hope our grandchildren will be grateful for this unwarranted imposition on them...."Telegraph

IT IS NOW..!

...bond market fat lady still waitin ta sing

petey : winter draws on!..

Wednesday, 15 October 2008

THE BEAR OF THE BASKERVILLES

yo!...some days...the bear will eat you...some days you'll eat the bear...

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate capitulation day+28

...a most awful thing has happened!..it would appear that after a lovely bull market
from 1982 -2000...

...a nasty, capital destroying, bear market... has crept up on us...

...while we were watching some of the worst tv ever...

petey : spider been onna web lookin at some very gloomy stuff...

spider : yo! boss...cop fo dis...

thomas : "My most optimistic forecast is it will last another 4-5 years from now, or about 12 years if we count year 2000 as the starting point. If we use the commodity super-cycle by Jim Rogers, which usually runs opposite to the general equity market and lasts until 2020 as Jim predicts, it will be also a 2 decade bear market for equities, consistent with both the 1970s and the 1930s. When will the S&P 500 be back to last October's peak? At least 24 years from 2000, or 2024. A few chart technicians today think the Dow can drop all the way to 1,000, back to the 1982 level. Even that is possible, but I think it might bottom at one of the lower Fibonacci levels between 14,000 and 1,000. Which one of them is yet to be seen in future years but my guess is around 4-5,000. seeking alpha

michael panzner :..."Not to beat a dead horse, but on Tuesday, (in "Give 'Em Enough Hope...") and last week (in "Bear Market Rallies"), I noted that it is not uncommon to see eye-popping rallies in bear markets.

Even so, I do think there is something very interesting about the dates of most of the entries in a chart accompanying an article in today's Wall Street Journal about yesterday's big rally, entitled "Dow Takes Giant Leap as Bailouts Snap Gloom."


market ticker : ..."Do not believe for a second that a single thing done by these folks is going to help Main Street - or you. It will not, just as it has not. Oil and food price ramps, mortgage spreads, the stock market and the economy after jawboning repeatedly with "the economy is fundamentally strong" (instead of warning people that we were headed into a recession and might want to prepare for that!) and more.

"Main Street" will continue to get the most unpleasant of surprises if the course of action in Washington, most particularly the actions undertaken by The Fed and Treasury, is not reversed now.

How bad can it get? Read this article from Bloomberg:

"Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Iceland's benchmark stock index plunged 77 percent, the biggest decline on record, as trading resumed after a three-day suspension and the nationalization of the country's largest banks."


Think it can't happen here? The price of every imported good tripling overnight as the currency crashes by 2/3rds instantly?

That is what happened to Iceland - literally overnight.

If we don't force transparency of all financial institution balance sheet and capital positions, this may be coming to a stock market - and grocery market - near you.

Hope and pray it does not, and vote all politicians who voted for this crazy bailout bill out of office come November 4th.

I love this nation Ben and Hank - are you willing to kill it so your banker buddies don't have to confess?"

watson : i say holmes old chap...bit over the top don't you think??

holmes : my dear watson...I recommend you read the complete articles...

...over a cup of Earl Grey anna slice o lemming!

Tuesday, 14 October 2008

WIRE RALLY

yo!...night atta opera...innit..!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate capitulation day+26

...alla kings orses an alla kings men have joined forces ta put
humpty dumpty back together wi vinega an brahn paper...

...shocks an scares is rocketin on relief that itz all ovva...

newsnight : it all gon be cool nah man...fat lady sung innit!...
...lez kick ass on who dunnit...

watson : i say holmes old boy...time fo a spot a bubbly wot?

holmes : everything may not be as it seems...

watson : wot fo yo such a sad sakka sh*t shamus?

holmes : elementary! watson old boy...elementary...

watson : an?

holmes : house prices still fallin dude!...stiffs still skint, in debt an scared...
...truth still not out there...trust still gon walkabout...

tim knight : "...As for equities in general - - I said very plainly I was looking for a rise "between 1050 and 1100" on the S&P. At this rate, we'll be there tomorrow! (Although I really doubt "this rate" will continue; today was, after all, a relief rally with huge, pent-up demand). In any event, the opportunity to get really bearish again won't require a lot of patience.

market ticker : "...The resistance to forced truth-telling is maddening folks. It has been going on now for over a year, and until it stops, I just don't see the market normalizing. I know the counter-argument - "everyone is broke" - but if that's the truth, then let's get on with it, because we're only delaying the inevitable. You can't make the broke un-broke, you see. If we need to set up some state-sponsored banks (to do it FAST) and then spin them off in IPOs, letting the existing system die, then so be it.

Perhaps such a time would be a good opportunity to include The Fed in this sort of forced replacement, since they are and were complicit in the original destruction and have been part of the liars charade! After all, what Congress giveth via legislation, it can taketh away, no?

In any event don't get complacent; I see nothing here right now that suggests the "crisis is over", but the mouth-breathers in the media are of course cheering the market's rally.

Good for them.

We'll see how long it lasts.

Check Libor, the TED spread and the IRX tomorrow when our bond market is open for trading. You should get a decent idea of what's what at that point."

from financial armageddon ...

grantham : ..."The terrible thing -- after all this pain -- is that the U.S. equity market is not even cheap. You would imagine that, given the amount of panic, that it would be. But it started from such a high level in 2000 that it still has not yet worked its way down to trend, although it is getting close. But the really bad news is that great bubbles in history always overcorrected. So although the fair value of the S&P today may be about 1025, typically bubbles overcorrect by quite a bit, possibly by 20%. That is very discouraging.

barrons : What about equities outside the U.S.?

grantham : Things are getting cheaper. We score the EAFE [the Europe, Australasia and Far East Index] as absolutely cheap, and it's offering a 7% real annual return over seven years. Emerging-market equities are a bit cheaper, and we see a 9.5% annual real return over the same period.

The problem, though, is that we have so much downside momentum, so many financial problems and so many interlocking relationships, that it is hard to imagine this crisis subsiding because stock prices are digging in their heels and approaching fair value. financial armageddon

fortune : "...Investors have been reluctant to admit that this cycle, unlike 1998's credit crisis, is imbedded in the real economy," Merrill Lynch investment strategist Rich Bernstein wrote last week. "The government can come up with any number of refinancing and liquidity plans, but households are likely to increasingly default on mortgages and other debts if cash flow is not stabilized via employment."

The employment picture is deteriorating rapidly. The United States has lost 760,000 jobs in the past nine months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while weekly initial jobless claims have hit a recent 478,000 from the low 300,000 range in early 2007.

Those are numbers that go hand-in-hand with recessions, noted Northern Trust economist Asha Bangalore. "Projections of weak economic growth," she added, "suggest that a higher level of jobless claims in the months ahead is nearly certain..."

...."But outside the booming financial sector, job growth was soft and wages were stagnant. The median U.S. family's income was actually a shade lower in 2007 than it was at the end of the high-tech boom of the 1990s, according to census bureau data.

"Since 2000, a lot of economic growth has been illusory," said Len Blum, a managing director at investment bank Westwood Capital. "Now that the asset bubbles have been popped, you start to realize we really didn't make that much progress in our economy."

Indeed, consumer outlays are now falling, as households try to work off their debts. Along with the surge in mortgage delinquencies that precipitated the financial crisis, the spending slowdown is also taking a toll on employment..."cnn


fat lady
: i've never been so insulted in all my life...

groucho : ...the night is young yet!

beulah : what abaht a sanity clause?

petey : evva boddy know...they aint no sanity clause..!


Sunday, 12 October 2008

ONCE-UPON-A-TIME INNA 'VEST

yo!...let there be light..!...innit!

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate capitilation day+24

...western banks are under attack from the forces of deflation...they shares is sinkin fast as...
...no f*cker wants em...

...smoke an mirrors was used to create an ilussion o BOOM an nah itz BUST...

...alla kings orses an alla kings men atta meetin...tryin ta put humpty dumpty...
...back together agin..

...trouble is...trust gone walkabaht...an itz alla cos o lies an stuff...

...banks bin lyin...govment bin lyin...

market ticker : ..."The short version of The Genesis Plan is:
  1. Everyone must expose their balance sheet; all Level 2 and 3 assets must be declared and all models disclosed in full immediately and every quarter hereafter.
  2. The CDS monster must be caged by forcing it onto an exchange where O/I and margin supervision can be maintained. This is already in process and must be completed.
  3. Leverage must be returned to no more than 12:1 across the system - no exceptions.

liam : ..."Wholesale money markets won’t start operating freely again until all banks are forced – by law if necessary – to declare the entire extent of their exposure to sub-prime, default swaps and any other loss-making position.

Such “full disclosure” will hurt some banks very badly. Chief executives will be sacked, reputations crushed, and more institutions will fail. But, with the Government standing ready with finance to prevent systemic meltdown, such “creative destruction” must happen – with stronger banks taking over the weak. That’s how capitalism works. The system needs to be purged. And until it is, it’s a myth to think the inter-bank market will work...." sunday times

TELL THE TRUTH ABOUT NATIONAL DEBT

liam : Let’s call time on spiralling national debt

..."All these multibillion dollar bail-outs are pushing Western governments closer to bankruptcy. Iceland shows it can happen. OK, Iceland is small and its authorities have been particularly remiss, but it’s an advanced nation — not a tinpot banana republic. A rubicon has been crossed.

Credit default swaps on the sovereign debt of some Western nations have shot up. The markets don’t yet think the likes of Italy and Spain will go bust, but the chances are growing they could.

So dire is America’s fiscal health that even technology can’t cope. Last week, the digital clock in New York’s Time Square, which shows the US national debt, symbolically ran out of digits. It was first installed in 1989, when the country’s debt was $2.7 trillion – a 13-figure number. Now the total is $10.3 trillion, the display is simply too small.

As this column has previously argued, we need such a clock in Britain. Some moneybags short-seller should give something back, sponsoring one in London’s Piccadilly Circus. The Government certainly won’t fund it.

The Treasury claims our national debt is around £550bn. That number – how can I put this delicately? – is total nonsense.

Our politicians and civil servants have made an invidious art form of burying off-balance-sheet liabilities. I’m thinking, in particular, of the private finance initiative, quasi-private debts held by the likes of Network Rail and – above all – our enormous public sector pension bill.

The UK’s true national debt – even before last week’s multibillion pound package – exceeds £1,300bn (some £50,000 per household). Every penny will have to be re-paid from future taxation. That’s before we spend any more...." sunday times


neil young : nuthin is perfec in Gods perfec plan...jus lookin a shadows ta see...

petey : shine a light onnit...tell a truth... for once!




Saturday, 11 October 2008

Bagpipe Music

yo!...tin hats innit!...

worra week!..crap!!!... wannit!

PALOOKAVILLE SPORT stardate capitulation day+23

Louis MacNeice : "Their knickers are made of crepe-de-chine, their shoes are made of python,

...Their halls are lined with tiger rugs and their walls with heads of bison...

...the story so far...trust in banks, financials has evaporated...

...panic has set in...an markets have tanked and now...

EVERY DAY IS WHACKDAY...

...is everybody happy?...no we're f*ckin not!

simon : ..."Let there be no doubt about the extent of Gordon Brown’s culpability for the crisis. As Chancellor, he raised huge sums and borrowed yet more in order to build a client state of tame Labour voters on the public payroll – whether as employees or claimants. He pushed Britain to live way beyond its means not merely in this way, but by putting excessive amounts of money into circulation that banks could lend on with cavalier irresponsibility. He then failed properly to regulate those banks...

The debt mountain he created has yet to wreak its full horror on society. He spent so wildly that when things went wrong – not that he ever managed to predict that they would – we were desperately short of funds to make repairs. As a result, taxes will have to go up, and public services may have to endure damaging cuts. Finally, when the time came to clear up the mess, he dithered and brooded while the stock market went into free fall and banks went to the wall."
...telegraph

louis : ..."It's no go the Government grants, it's no go the elections...

...Sit on your arse for fifty years and hang your hat on a pension...

A MAN WITH A PLAN

market ticker :
The Genesis Plan ..."While there were a few signs of credit market stress easing (a bit) today, (friday) there were also more anecdotes of things getting much worse. I see nothing to suggest that short-term lending has returned to normal, and until I do, I remain on high alert for the sort of disruptive events that can impact your life in very undesirable ways.

Yes, the market bounced hard today. Twice. Artificial? Maybe. Inside knowledge? More probably. Will whatever the "crackberry network" was buzzing about work? Likely not for more than a few days, but with the market this jittery, it doesn't matter - when the VIX is this high anything that makes people jump causes this sort of reaction - in either direction.

Get on it folks - plaster the media and your elected officials with the fact that we now have hard evidence that this path forward will not only work on a technical basis, but if it is adopted it will clear the credit markets almost immediately, which is the key element of this mess that must be resolved." market ticker

louis : ..."It's no go the merry-go-round, it's no go the rickshaw...

...All we want is a limousine and a ticket for the peepshow...

POETRY OF THE 1930's

john authers : ..."
A deeper irony is that there may not have been any need to update the book. Stock market conditions look ever more like the 1930s.

The noughties are much more similar to the 1930s than commonly thought. In morning trading on Friday, the S&P 500’s fall for the decade was almost identical to its fall for the decade on the same date in 1938. The pattern of the two decades is freakishly similar, with a big sell-off followed by a prolonged rally and then a fresh bear market. The key difference is that the sell-off in this decade before the “fools’ rally” began was far less severe than in the 1930s.

This, we can now see, was because cheap credit had inflated a new bubble.

This is what followers of Graham had argued. They said the market during the twin lows of the WorldCom crisis in 2002 and the invasion of Iraq in 2003 was still not cheap. Dividend yields, for example, were still barely half their level of the mid-1990s, before the tech bubble took hold.

But the similarities between the market tops in 1929 and 2000 are compelling. Both saw wildly overvalued stock markets and economies that were still in decent shape.

Measures based on cash, such as dividend yield or cash flow multiples, show that the market is now much cheaper than it was during the false bottom of 2002-03, even if overall indices are still higher.

We are not, therefore, in a new 1929. Our position is more similar to that of the late 1930s. That is not so encouraging: in the decade after October 10 1938, the S&P gained 5 per cent.

But at least we have a clear historical comparison, and a clear guide for how to proceed. Providing you are not using borrowed money, and you can afford to wait a matter of years for Mr Market to thrash out his problems, then Security Analysis is all you need.

Do not try to work out how long the market will take to recover or when it will hit bottom – that task is impossible. Use basic balance sheet methods to work out how much a stock is worth and how much it would be worth if the worst came to the worst. If that calculation leaves you with a margin of safety, then buy it. Don’t let the hand of history gripping your shoulder stop you." FT

paintypension : yo!...right on ...innit!...

...oh yeh!...read a disclaimer at top...none o this is advice...an don blame me if ya f**k up ya pension...

louis : ...The glass is falling hour by hour, the glass will fall for ever...

...But if you break the bloody glass...you won't hold up the weather..."

"Bagpipe Music" by Louis MacNeice 1935

peterthepainter : good..innit!