THE BEAR OF THE BASKERVILLES

yo!...some days...the bear will eat you...some days you'll eat the bear...

PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate capitulation day+28

...a most awful thing has happened!..it would appear that after a lovely bull market
from 1982 -2000...

...a nasty, capital destroying, bear market... has crept up on us...

...while we were watching some of the worst tv ever...

petey : spider been onna web lookin at some very gloomy stuff...

spider : yo! boss...cop fo dis...

thomas : "My most optimistic forecast is it will last another 4-5 years from now, or about 12 years if we count year 2000 as the starting point. If we use the commodity super-cycle by Jim Rogers, which usually runs opposite to the general equity market and lasts until 2020 as Jim predicts, it will be also a 2 decade bear market for equities, consistent with both the 1970s and the 1930s. When will the S&P 500 be back to last October's peak? At least 24 years from 2000, or 2024. A few chart technicians today think the Dow can drop all the way to 1,000, back to the 1982 level. Even that is possible, but I think it might bottom at one of the lower Fibonacci levels between 14,000 and 1,000. Which one of them is yet to be seen in future years but my guess is around 4-5,000. seeking alpha

michael panzner :..."Not to beat a dead horse, but on Tuesday, (in "Give 'Em Enough Hope...") and last week (in "Bear Market Rallies"), I noted that it is not uncommon to see eye-popping rallies in bear markets.

Even so, I do think there is something very interesting about the dates of most of the entries in a chart accompanying an article in today's Wall Street Journal about yesterday's big rally, entitled "Dow Takes Giant Leap as Bailouts Snap Gloom."

market ticker : ..."Do not believe for a second that a single thing done by these folks is going to help Main Street - or you. It will not, just as it has not. Oil and food price ramps, mortgage spreads, the stock market and the economy after jawboning repeatedly with "the economy is fundamentally strong" (instead of warning people that we were headed into a recession and might want to prepare for that!) and more.

"Main Street" will continue to get the most unpleasant of surprises if the course of action in Washington, most particularly the actions undertaken by The Fed and Treasury, is not reversed now.

How bad can it get? Read this article from Bloomberg:

"Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Iceland's benchmark stock index plunged 77 percent, the biggest decline on record, as trading resumed after a three-day suspension and the nationalization of the country's largest banks."

Think it can't happen here? The price of every imported good tripling overnight as the currency crashes by 2/3rds instantly?

That is what happened to Iceland - literally overnight.

If we don't force transparency of all financial institution balance sheet and capital positions, this may be coming to a stock market - and grocery market - near you.

Hope and pray it does not, and vote all politicians who voted for this crazy bailout bill out of office come November 4th.

I love this nation Ben and Hank - are you willing to kill it so your banker buddies don't have to confess?"

watson : i say holmes old chap...bit over the top don't you think??

holmes : my dear watson...I recommend you read the complete articles...

...over a cup of Earl Grey anna slice o lemming!