Palooka毕业财务
投降日313
...here in...
...palookagrad...
...all eyes are on...
...中国...
...the short view...
petey : hope the translation is ok...used a mac widget...innit...!
Thursday, 30 July 2009
Wednesday, 22 July 2009
THE BULLISH EMPIRE
yo!...tip of the iceberg...innit!
PALOOKAGRAD FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+305
...don't worry...
...be happy...
STATE OF PLAY
...the world economy has collapsed...
...world trade has disappeared...
...a deflationary spiral has taken hold...
...debt has replaced credit...
...politicians are in disgrace...
...not yet because they caused this disaster...
...but because many have been found to be fiddling their expenses...
...that they have increased their own salaries and pensions...
...whilst making us all...
...much poorer...
NOBODY KNOWS WHAT WE'VE DONE
...here in...
...palookagrad...
...we are so busy watching all the dreary sh*t...
...on state tv...
...that we are blissfully unaware...
...that we are bust...
...the politix are in hock to the banks...
...and have been made to bail them out...
...at our expense...
ALL TOMORROW'S PENSIONS
...the only money coming in to pay for all the public sector salaries and pensions...
...is being borrowed...
...when the suckers...
...figure this out...
...we will be in big trouble...
...for now...
...party on dudes...
Friday, 10 July 2009
PASSPORT TO PALOOKAVILLE
yo!...suckers...innit!
PALOOKAGRAD FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+293
...nobody here in...
...palookagrad...
...gives a f**k...
...about the new price of a passport...
DEFLATION DEFEATED
...certainly not the commissars at the BBC...
...whose pay is so high that they cannot ever spend it all...
...not the politicians who are rolling in expenses and have vast earnings...
...from their clients in the lobbies...
...at £77 per adult...
...nobody here is going anyhere...
THE PALOOKAGRAD WALL
...the crisis in government caused by their inability...
...to fund the new wall to keep in all the proles...
...has been averted...
...we have a tape of the cabinet in the politbureau...
brown : we have to stop people traveling...
dark brown : the b*stards think that the world is their oyster...
light brown : we have increased the tax on petrol and diesel...
mc brown : we have taxed air travel...
golden brown : we have increased the cost of a passport by 4-500%...
bust brown : the f**kers won't catch the bus...
incapability brown : they'll catch the f**kin flu though...
new brown : we should tax bikes...
old brown : I'm onnit boss...
chairman brown : we will stop the b*stards saving if it's the last thing we do!!...
petey : pitiful...innit!
ONCE-UPON-A-TIME IN THE BUST
yo!...going, going, gone...innit!
PALOOKAGRAD FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+292
...once-upon-a-time...
...here in...
...palookagrad...
...there was a tower called...
...................
...in those olden days there was a nasty witch...
...called bust...
...and this bust threatened to bring down the owners of the great tower...
...for some while the tower wobbled...
...and all the soothsayers argued about whether or when it would fall...
...about the same time there were rumours about an insurance company...
...that we worked in...
...the AAA magic that protected the company...
...was wearing out....
...due to non-performing...
...property investments...
20% OF THE SALES FORCE BRING IN 80%
OF THE BUSINESS
...the big hitters...
...had hit big...
...and made off with their commissions...
...the empty malls and towers...
...sucked the life out of the insurance company...
...AAA to AA+ to A to B...
...well you can guess the rest...
...and of course the tower fell as well...
NOTHING LIKE THIS COULD HAPPEN TODAY
Gillian Tett : ...So will US property prices stabilise? Not if you believe a startling presentation I saw this week from a large, global financial group. This particular bunch of analysts – who have done a remarkably good job at predicting the credit crisis during the past four years – are currently warning their clients to expect a peak-to-trough fall in US residential prices of more than 40 per cent in this cycle.
The good news is that in some US regions, prices have already fallen so sharply – often by more 30 per cent – that property is already very affordable, relative to incomes and on a historical basis.
But the bad news is that houses are not yet cheap enough to prevent more price falls. On the contrary, this particular team of analysts thinks that when the problems of excess house inventory and rising unemployment are added into the model, average US house prices will still fall by another 14 per cent in the next few years – on top of the declines seen so far.
That headline figure conceals some startling regional discrepancies. Colorado is reckoned to be through the worst. In New York, though, the pain has barely started. Prices there are projected to decline by another 30 per cent or so. Taken as a whole, these projections imply that about 25m households in America end up in negative equity.
This projection is gloomier than those made by the US government and many large US banks. But the 25m number is currently being echoed by other investment groups, such as Pimco. If it turns out to be correct, it raises two crucial questions. One is the degree to which the western banking system could face a secondary round of real estate losses (particularly as these analysts are even more alarmed about the commercial property outlook than the residential sector.)
But the second fascinating question is what further house prices falls might do to consumer psychology. America has never experienced negative equity on this scale before. Thus nobody is entirely sure how households might respond. Will they default en masse? Will voters become so angry that they demand more populist public bail-outs of the housing sector (or financial reform)? Will consumers cut spending further?..." Gillian...
Saturday, 4 July 2009
THE CURE FOR DEBT
yo!...more debt...innit!
PALOOKAGRAD FINANCIAL
+286...
...the story so far...
...the world has gone bust...
...having created too much credit during the Greenspan Bubble...
...the Wizard of Oz...
...failed to put on the brakes...
...before the wheels came off...
ELE
...the inventor of the black swan...
...says that the financial system is very fragile...
...and therefore...
...will crash...
...er...
...that would be...
...collapse...
...like world trade...
...after bankrupting the country...
...with his five year plans...
...comrade Brown...
...is hoping to cure the debt...
...with another credit binge...
...the cruel truth is...
...that the last great bubble was...
...just that...
...the bust began in January 2000...
...and the 2003 - 2008...
...period was a...
...zombie boom...
...the black swan guy...
...believes that they all...
...do not have a clue...
...about how to fix this bust...
HERE IS THE NEWS
...it's worse than that...
...it's dead jim...
...swop debt for equity..
...you can't fix debt with debt...
Friday, 26 June 2009
WHACKOJACK
yo!...the zombie king...innit!
“So all I’m saying is just align carefully powers and responsibilities. But believe me I’ve got more than enough work on my plate at present. I’m not looking for a whole lot more.” king
PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+278...
...today...
...here in...
...palookagrad...
...everyone is in mourning...
THRILLER
...the zombie king will sing and dance no more...
...but...
...the zombie banks will play and play...
..."But Mr King’s differences with the Treasury and Financial Services Authority over the future of the UK’s tripartite system of financial regulation are of greater importance. In testimony this week, Mr King revealed the extent to which regulators in one of the world’s great financial centres have yet to agree on the lessons to be learnt from the banking crisis. Mr King’s claim that he has not even been consulted on the government’s forthcoming white paper on reform of financial regulation, which is likely to give the FSA a share in responsibility for financial stability, certainly does little to boost confidence that the Bank will swing into line in support of the UK’s proposed new regulatory framework...."
...LEX...
IT AINT ME BABE
...“All we can do at present, before a bank is deemed by the FSA to have failed, is to write our Finanicial Stability Report and give speeches. These are important things. But in the end I don’t believe that people change their behaviour simply because we publish reports. Now, that’s fine by me. I’m very happy with that position if you want us just to publish reports. I’m very content with that. But I do want it to be absolutely crystal clear that you in parliament understand the Bank of England can do no more than publish reports and make speeches.
“If you’re content with that, that’s fine by me. What you can’t do is turn around afterwards and say ‘You have the statutory responsibility, why didn’t you do something?’ when there is nothing we can actually do.“So all I’m saying is just align carefully powers and responsibilities. But believe me I’ve got more than enough work on my plate at present. I’m not looking for a whole lot more.” king
"The feud between the Bank of England and the Treasury intensified on Wednesday as Mervyn King said he had not been consulted on the contents of the Government's imminent White Paper on financial services."
LEST WE FORGET
...it was Brown wot took away powers from the BOE...
...and give em to the FSA an the Treasury...
...his name is all over this bust...
...oh...
...and he sold our gold...
...at the very bottom of the market...
BROWN
the real king of the zombies
Wednesday, 24 June 2009
GROW YOUR OWN DOPE
yo!..plant an investor...innit!
PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+276...
...Wall Street struggles for direction...
...“I don’t think this is the start of a major pull-back,” said Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial Services.
...here, this morning...
...in palookaville...
...we await capitulation...
...we have been denied for so long...
...the zombie forces ranged against us...
...are legion...
...and well entrenched...
...they believe that they know the correct prices for all the various...
...financial assets...
...until the forces of creative destruction...
...rally to the cause...
...the zombies will continue to hold sway...
CAPITULATION DAY
...will arrive...
...eventually...
...the longer it takes...
...the greater the eventual bill...
...two lost decades in Japan...
...have not taught the zombie masters...
...that they do more harm than good...
capitulation day
+276...
...Wall Street struggles for direction...
...“I don’t think this is the start of a major pull-back,” said Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial Services.
“Buyers and sellers have come together and begun to agree on a fair price following the powerful rally, which is why we have seen sideways trade.”
But Tim Howkins, chief executive of IG Group, said: “Equities need to go down again. They bounced too quickly and the feeling is
we still need to see a complete capitulation.”...FT
...here, this morning...
...in palookaville...
...we await capitulation...
...we have been denied for so long...
...the zombie forces ranged against us...
...are legion...
...and well entrenched...
...they believe that they know the correct prices for all the various...
...financial assets...
...until the forces of creative destruction...
...rally to the cause...
...the zombies will continue to hold sway...
CAPITULATION DAY
...will arrive...
...eventually...
...the longer it takes...
...the greater the eventual bill...
...two lost decades in Japan...
...have not taught the zombie masters...
...that they do more harm than good...
Tuesday, 23 June 2009
GET OUT OF DEBT FREE
yo!...debt pays...innit!
PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+275...
...struth...
...an they said the bum was in on housin...
...'We'll pay you £25,000 to take your mortgage elsewhere'...
...
capitulation day
+275...
...struth...
...an they said the bum was in on housin...
...'We'll pay you £25,000 to take your mortgage elsewhere'...
...
Monday, 22 June 2009
DEBT AND BET
yo!...casino capitalism...innit!
PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+274...
...In palookaville today...
...everyone is a winner...
...the chinese have made all this cheap money available...
...for their many millions of gamblers...
...to play with...
...Chinese bail-out cash heads for Macau’s casinos rather than Guangdong factories...
and
...Xie: Chinese Banks Funding Commodities Speculation, Casting Doubt on Recovery...
...so...
...funny how so much of what we are told...
...by those pollyanna people...
...is proved bollox...
...eventually...
HERE IS THE NEWS
...the fruit machine has stopped...
...payouts are history...
...get a job...
...if you can...
IN GERMANY THEY DO IT DIFFERENTLY
...Berlin weaves a deficit hair-shirt for us all...
!NON!
...Sarkozy rejects austerity measures...
capitulation day
+274...
...In palookaville today...
...everyone is a winner...
...the chinese have made all this cheap money available...
...for their many millions of gamblers...
...to play with...
...Chinese bail-out cash heads for Macau’s casinos rather than Guangdong factories...
and
...Xie: Chinese Banks Funding Commodities Speculation, Casting Doubt on Recovery...
...so...
...funny how so much of what we are told...
...by those pollyanna people...
...is proved bollox...
...eventually...
HERE IS THE NEWS
...the fruit machine has stopped...
...payouts are history...
...get a job...
...if you can...
IN GERMANY THEY DO IT DIFFERENTLY
...Berlin weaves a deficit hair-shirt for us all...
!NON!
...Sarkozy rejects austerity measures...
Wednesday, 17 June 2009
GOOD TIMES AND BAD Extended Recession Version
yo!...for your pleasure...innit!
PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+269...
..."me, I liked him. He had all the guts they ever made".
oh yeah...an this too
capitulation day
+269...
..."me, I liked him. He had all the guts they ever made".
oh yeah...an this too
Tuesday, 16 June 2009
A Zombie Because
yo!...this is not advice...
PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+266...
..."The world is setting up for a big crash, again.
Market chatter over green shoots and rising prices has fueled a bear market rally that won't last, despite policymaker 'noise.'
Since the last bubble burst, governments around the world have not been focusing on reforms.
They are trying to pump a new bubble to solve existing problems.
Before inflation appears, this strategy works.
As inflation expectation rises, its effectiveness is threatened.
When inflation appears in 2010, another crash will come.
If you are a speculator and confident you can get out before it crashes, this is your market. If you think this market is for real, you are making a mistake and should get out as soon as possible. If you lost money during your last three market entries, stay away from this one – as far as you can."
petey : sounds about right to me....
always read the full article an we don't give advice. we just suckers like you...
capitulation day
+266...
..."The world is setting up for a big crash, again.
Market chatter over green shoots and rising prices has fueled a bear market rally that won't last, despite policymaker 'noise.'
Since the last bubble burst, governments around the world have not been focusing on reforms.
They are trying to pump a new bubble to solve existing problems.
Before inflation appears, this strategy works.
As inflation expectation rises, its effectiveness is threatened.
When inflation appears in 2010, another crash will come.
If you are a speculator and confident you can get out before it crashes, this is your market. If you think this market is for real, you are making a mistake and should get out as soon as possible. If you lost money during your last three market entries, stay away from this one – as far as you can."
petey : sounds about right to me....
always read the full article an we don't give advice. we just suckers like you...
Monday, 15 June 2009
Zombiegrad Spring
yo!...good news week...innit!
ZOMBIEGRAD FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+265...
...this morning...
...here in...
...zombiegrad...
...even the msb...
...are carryin the real news...
GERMAY F**KED
..."Paul Krugman: The "Nipponisation" of the world economy with a bunch of "Argentinafications" playing a role in the acute crisis. But even after those are over, we have the Nipponisation of the world economy. And that's really something.
petey : Im shocked that you're shocked...Will
...So at this point, I see the chances as roughly even between a global slump and a return to quasi-stagnation. What is so galling about this scenario is that it is avoidable. The central banks took the right decisions. But the political reaction has been near-catastrophic almost everywhere.
capitulation day
+265...
...this morning...
...here in...
...zombiegrad...
...even the msb...
...are carryin the real news...
GERMAY F**KED
..."Paul Krugman: The "Nipponisation" of the world economy with a bunch of "Argentinafications" playing a role in the acute crisis. But even after those are over, we have the Nipponisation of the world economy. And that's really something.
Will Hutton: What was the heart of the Japanese problem? What was at the heart of their 17 years of going nowhere?
PK: Well, my guess is that it was that the balance-sheet problems took a very long time to resolve. And it is difficult to get enough demand in an economy where you have really very adverse demography ...
WH: So, which countries look closest to being Nipponised - combining balance-sheet problems and ageing populations?
PK: Well, the US doesn't have the same combination. But in Europe, Germany and Italy look comparable. France is better and Europe as a whole is considerably better.
WH: Germany matches Japan to an uncanny degree. You talk about the Nipponisation of the world economy: I'm not so sure. But I would talk about the Nipponisation of Europe via a German economy at its centre in the grip of the same problem - and that starts to be a global problem.
PK: Germany has huge inadequacy of domestic demand. Their economic recovery in the first seven years of this decade rested on the emergence of gigantic current account surplus.
How is it possible that Germany, which did not have a house price bubble, is having a steeper GDP fall than anyone else in the major economies?
The answer is that they depended upon exporting to the bubble regions of Europe, so they actually got side-swiped by the loss of those exports worse than the bubble regions themselves got hit.
It's Germany on a global scale that is the concern. We worry about the drag on world demand from the global savings coming out of east Asia and the Middle East, but within Europe there's a European savings glut which is coming out of Germany. And it's much bigger relative to the size of the economy.
WH: And on top there is an unique and unaddressed huge potential banking crisis. The Germans pride themselves on their three-legged banking system, but it is incredibly interlinked. The IMF warns that Germany could have to take at least $500bn of writedowns, which its banks have not begun to recognise. German banks hold a trillion dollars - maybe more - of maturing collateralised debt obligations that can only be refinanced by crystallising the losses. We've had RBS and you've had Citigroup. Germany's GDP will fall 6% this year - before the banking crisis has hit it....
...PK: That the cause is primarily financial. Certainly, Lehman and all of that alerted us all. And it did trigger an immediate drop in demand. But the housing bust was going to happen regardless.
The fall in business investment is at least to a large degree a response to excess capacity, which is the result of falling consumer demand and the housing bust. So we don't know.
WH: I think we know more than that. The links between bank capital, loan losses, credit availability and economic activity and asset prices have never been clearer. That was why there was a threat of Depression.
PK: Clearly, re-establishing stability in the financial markets is a necessary condition for recovery. But we're not sure it's sufficient.
WH: That's very scary.
PK: Well, that is part of the reason why I am so depressed.
WH: In one of your lecture charts you seemed to be suggesting that we're 12 months into what you think could be a 36-month period of downturn, albeit at a slower rate.
PK: Easily.
WH: It's quite shocking that you think it will be that severe.
petey : Im shocked that you're shocked...Will
PK: If we measure the 2001 US recession by when the labour market finally started to turn around, it was a 30-month recession. It was really 30 months in before you started to see the unemployment rate come down."
...guardian...
wolfgang in the FT...
..."The March signs of revival turned out to be little more than a technical inventory correction, with no change in the underlying trend. The world economy is still contracting, though perhaps not quite as fast as at the start of the year.
As an analysis by economists Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke* shows, global industrial output is still on the same trajectory as it was during 1930.
The only question is whether we can avoid 1931 and 1932.
The answer is yes, but on conditions that seem increasingly implausible if we extrapolate current policies. We can avoid calamity if monetary and fiscal policies remain supportive throughout the duration of this crisis, if we fix the banking system and if we impose regulations to constrain a resurgent financial sector. We also have to be lucky to avoid another round of market turbulence in the near future.
In other words ... the answer may well be no. Central banks and governments therefore risk moving too swiftly out of a recession-mode strategy. When Axel Weber, president of the Bundesbank, publicly talks at this time about how to communicate a rise in interest rates, it tells me that the danger of a premature exit, at least in Europe, is clear and present....
...So at this point, I see the chances as roughly even between a global slump and a return to quasi-stagnation. What is so galling about this scenario is that it is avoidable. The central banks took the right decisions. But the political reaction has been near-catastrophic almost everywhere.
Instead of solving the problems to generate a recovery, the political strategies have consisted of waiting for a recovery to solve the problem. The Europeans are relying on the Americans to generate growth. The Americans are relying on the Chinese, who in turn are waiting for the rest of the world.
Even if the US were to generate some growth, as is likely after this summer, it would not benefit global exporters; China may be one of the fastest growing economies in the world, but it is only about half as large as the eurozone in dollar terms. And as Brad Setser** has pointed out in his blog, there is absolutely no evidence that China contributes to a global recovery. While Chinese investments are up by more than 30 per cent from last year alone, imports are down 25 per cent. All this hype about decoupling and China pulling the world out of recession is baloney. The data tell us that China’s exports and imports are both falling, and that imports are falling faster.
As everybody expects the others to move first, nobody ends up moving. In the meantime, the problems grow worse. US house prices, which are down by a little over 30 per cent from their peak, still have some way to fall. Until the US housing market hits rock bottom, perhaps sometime in 2010, there is no chance of a recovery in the securitisation market, without which there may not be sufficient credit growth....
...The only potentially good news in the past three months has been the receding threat of a currency crisis in central and eastern Europe. But I am not even sure that this is for real. The persistent refusal by eurozone policymakers to concede fast-track euro accession for central and eastern member states could yet prove destabilising.
Last week, the ECB had to provide €3bn in euro liquidity to Sweden’s Riksbank, in the absence of which Sweden may have experienced its second banking meltdown in less than two decades. The inevitable collapse of Latvia will have ripple effects on the Baltic region and may cause panic among investors in other central and east European countries.
This is why last week’s news about the withering green shoots is so important.
It tells us that the non-strategy of waiting until things get better is not working.
The March signs of life reinforced complacency.
Optimism will get us out of this crisis only if it is founded in reality.
Last week showed us that this is not the case."
...FT...
..."Neil Mackinnon, chief economist at ECU Group, said Washington believes European states are "free riding" on American stimulus, expecting the US to pull them out of crisis yet again.
Europe's industrial output continued to slide in April and was down 22pc from a year earlier, suggesting that talk of a "V-shaped" rebound is premature. At best, the pace of decline has slowed. Production fell 23pc in Germany and 24pc in Italy.
The ECB expects the eurozone economy to contract by 4.6pc this year and a further 0.3pc next year, with no recovery until mid-2010.
Structural rigidities of the region raise risks that it will remain trapped in slump well after the rest of the world has turned the corner, as it did after the dotcom bust.
This time Europe faces the extra head-winds of a strong euro, over-valued against the 45-odd countries such as China that are linked to the dollar. This currency effect is slowly "hollowing out" Europe's industrial core...."
...ambrose...
...oh yeah!..
...an this...
Thursday, 11 June 2009
OF BONDS AND ZOMBIES
yo!..as good as it gets...innit!
PALOOKAGRAD FINANCIAL
capitulation day
+261...
...here in...
...palookagrad...
...the zombie capital of the worst...
...the gangreene shoots of zirp forced ungrowth...
...have stolen our hearts away...
AFTER THE NEXT UNLECTION
..."It really is 1979 all over again – and perhaps even worse. I don't know whether that is something David Cameron is relishing or dreading, but I hope he knows what he's in for....
...we have not dealt with the massive overhang of debt racked up by individuals and governments over the past decade or so.
In the 1930s, the flipside of mass bankruptcy, bank failures and record unemployment was that in a relatively short time private debt levels dropped back down to manageable levels. This time, we have avoided the bankruptcy; the consequence is that we still need to repay the debt.
..."Unveiling mixed results, which saw Homebase return to sales growth for the first time since 2005, Mr Duddy said he will "continue to plan cautiously" for the year ahead.
..."Not that it will feel that good, because unemployment and company failures will continue to rise.
And the big worry is that the British patient, after a feeble recovery, could suffer a relapse.
..."The fall in Chinese exports and imports accelerated in May, dashing hopes that a collapse in the country’s external trade flows had bottomed out and pointing to the continued weakness in global demand......
SOONER OR LATER
ONE OF US MUST BLOW
..."“Once the 30-year is out of the way, the market should have a window to rally,” said analysts at MF Global. “The bull story rests in higher mortgage rates slowing the recovery.”...FT
..."Now both groups are out on market patrol, trampling green shoots back into the dust. Every $1 rise in the price of oil costs global consumers $82m more a day. Meanwhile UK 10-year gilts on Thursday hit a seven-month high of 3.98 per cent, while US Treasuries sold for 3.99 per cent at auction, their highest since August.
capitulation day
+261...
...here in...
...palookagrad...
...the zombie capital of the worst...
...the gangreene shoots of zirp forced ungrowth...
...have stolen our hearts away...
AFTER THE NEXT UNLECTION
..."It really is 1979 all over again – and perhaps even worse. I don't know whether that is something David Cameron is relishing or dreading, but I hope he knows what he's in for....
...we have not dealt with the massive overhang of debt racked up by individuals and governments over the past decade or so.
In the 1930s, the flipside of mass bankruptcy, bank failures and record unemployment was that in a relatively short time private debt levels dropped back down to manageable levels. This time, we have avoided the bankruptcy; the consequence is that we still need to repay the debt.
And, as I wrote last week, the slow reinvigoration of the financial sector is down to the Faustian pact it made with the Government: the public sector has assumed its enormous debts, on the proviso that the banks will operate on a shorter leash. Even amid signs of recovery, those banks remain nervy, paranoid institutions, unwilling to take even mild risks.
In the immediate future, they will remain zombie banks.
Barring another disaster of some sort (which should not be ruled out), the Bank of England will at some point in the next year start raising interest rates. All those households which have only survived because of near-zero borrowing costs will hit a massive financial wall.
They are zombie households.
Then there is the Government. As George Osborne pointed out in his speech to the Association of British Insurers this week, the biggest challenge in the coming decade is how to bring down the national debt. Britain has three options: default on the debt (fatal for our long-term prospects), inflate it away (near fatal, but feasible) or pay it back through a long period of austerity.
The latter course is by no means easy. The Tories insist it can be done through spending cuts, but they will almost certainly also have to raise taxes to get the books back in order. Don't be surprised if VAT is higher than 17.5 per cent before long.
This week, London has been crippled by Tube strikes that presage the next few years, which will be peppered with clashes between heavily unionised public-sector workers and a government with no choice but to bring down costs...."
..."Unveiling mixed results, which saw Homebase return to sales growth for the first time since 2005, Mr Duddy said he will "continue to plan cautiously" for the year ahead.
"I don't think we're strong proponents of green shoots at this early stage of the year," said Terry Duddy, chief executive of Home Retail, which owns Argos and Homebase. "The first quarter was helped by increases in disposable income because of lower interest rates, and it was not offset by unemployment. That could easily change," he said, citing forecasts of unemployment rising to 3 million by the end of the year...."
...telegraph......"Not that it will feel that good, because unemployment and company failures will continue to rise.
And the big worry is that the British patient, after a feeble recovery, could suffer a relapse.
If the upturn we are seeing now is in large part because of restocking, there will be a spike in orders which will inevitably fall back again. How far they fall back depends largely on the strength of consumer demand.
And there the picture is still pretty gloomy.
Consumers remain shackled by heavy debts, battered by the housing slump, fearful of unemployment and hampered by banks still reluctant to lend.
Public spending provides no alternative, since the massive burden of government borrowing is about to force severe cutbacks.
The industrial production figures show some signs of the hoped-for rebalancing of the economy away from its dependence on the indebted (zombie)consumer.
But without a big easing of credit or a strong rebound in export demand, the recovery is likely to be anaemic, if it is sustained at all."
...times...(petey ; my emphasis and zombie)
..."The fall in Chinese exports and imports accelerated in May, dashing hopes that a collapse in the country’s external trade flows had bottomed out and pointing to the continued weakness in global demand......
....“The global economic situation has hit a bottom but it will still take time to recover. I expect it to take one to three years,” said Hu Yifan, chief economist (global) at CITIC Securities in Hong Kong.
“A technical rebound [in exports] may happen in November but a demand-driven rebound will not come in the short term.”
Beijing has announced a Rmb4,000 ($586bn) stimulus plan after its exports-powered economy was hit hard by weak global demand.
The stimulus packages have spurred investment in government-supported sectors such as transport infrastructure, the power grid and housing, as reflected in a 38.7 per cent rise in fixed asset investment in May from a year earlier.
This marked a larger increase than in April, when FAI rose 33.9 per cent. For the first five months of this year, investments increased 32.9 per cent from the same period in 2008, compared with 30.5 per cent in the first four months of the year and against an estimate of 31 per cent.
“Fixed asset investment in China continues to increase on the back of state-directed projects ... This will help keep the economy growing but there are increasing concerns about the amount of lending that has been required to fund the projects,” said Alaistair Chan, economist at Moody’s Economy.com."...
...FT...SOONER OR LATER
ONE OF US MUST BLOW
..."“Once the 30-year is out of the way, the market should have a window to rally,” said analysts at MF Global. “The bull story rests in higher mortgage rates slowing the recovery.”...FT
..."Now both groups are out on market patrol, trampling green shoots back into the dust. Every $1 rise in the price of oil costs global consumers $82m more a day. Meanwhile UK 10-year gilts on Thursday hit a seven-month high of 3.98 per cent, while US Treasuries sold for 3.99 per cent at auction, their highest since August.
Further rises would lynch the recovery. Then, as market strategist Ed Yardeni puts it, the vigilantes can go back home and do what they like best: nestle up with bonds...."
...lex...
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