PALOOKAVILLE FINANCIAL stardate : capitulation day+86
"2008: A year to forget, but one we won't be allowed to for a long, long time
This year has been a simply stunning one in financial markets."
terry smith : ..."I think that the downturn will be much more prolonged than usual. The average for the USA for 1854-2001 was 17 months, but the Great Depression of 1929-33 lasted 43 months and the grandaddy of recessions in this period was one which lasted 65 months from 1873-79. It would be wise to prepare for a long siege....
... This is why the next battle will be over the creditworthiness of governments and the strength of currencies. We have already seen the collapse of Iceland caused by its banks having liabilities which its economy couldn't guarantee. It may be tempting to see Iceland as an isolated and extreme case, but don't be fooled. Any country and currency is at risk which has guaranteed bank liabilities which are large in relation to its total economy....
...However, for me, the $64,000 question is not how long the recession will last or whether one or more currencies or governments' credit will be severely damaged; it is whether we will get deflation or inflation as a result of this crisis...
...To put it simply, a government can always raise interest rates until they have stifled inflation. But you cannot cut rates below zero. Japan's long deflation and recession after its asset bubble burst in the late 1980s shows how ineffective government policies can be against deflation. But one thing is clear: both inflation and deflation are pernicious, and we're definitely heading for one or the other, or maybe both in succession. sunday telegraph
"Experts can only guess as we head into the unknown"
irwin stelzer : ..." But we have moved beyond the range of what we know about credit crunches. All we know is that the results so far have not matched the predictions of the proponents of these policies. Which is one reason why Paulson decided not to use the second half of his $700 billion, and to leave it to the next Congress and the incoming president to decide whether it might not be better to pass the remaining $350 billion direct to homeowners who are falling behind with their mortgage payments. Surely that would reduce foreclosures and repossessions, thereby easing the glut of unsold homes, raising prices and helping to bring the recession to an end. Surely? Better, perhaps....
...the following opinions are best guesses based on the imperfect analytical tools in this economist’s tool kit, and a good deal of real-world experience.
So here goes: the second tranche of $350 billion should be aimed at easing credit markets rather than specifically at the housing market; the GM bailout will fail because the parties won’t give up enough to make the company competitive; the dollar won’t sink because there are few places investors can trust as much as the United States, even a heavily indebted United States. That much I know — well, think I know. sunday times
petey : ah really laks irwin man...
spider : he a head...man!
zooneh : i reads im alla time
opkin : go! irwin...
laverne : other dude ok too...innit..!
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