Saturday, 11 October 2008

Bagpipe Music

yo!...tin hats innit!...

worra week!..crap!!!... wannit!

PALOOKAVILLE SPORT stardate capitulation day+23

Louis MacNeice : "Their knickers are made of crepe-de-chine, their shoes are made of python,

...Their halls are lined with tiger rugs and their walls with heads of bison...

...the story so in banks, financials has evaporated...

...panic has set markets have tanked and now...

EVERY DAY IS WHACKDAY... everybody happy? we're f*ckin not!

simon : ..."Let there be no doubt about the extent of Gordon Brown’s culpability for the crisis. As Chancellor, he raised huge sums and borrowed yet more in order to build a client state of tame Labour voters on the public payroll – whether as employees or claimants. He pushed Britain to live way beyond its means not merely in this way, but by putting excessive amounts of money into circulation that banks could lend on with cavalier irresponsibility. He then failed properly to regulate those banks...

The debt mountain he created has yet to wreak its full horror on society. He spent so wildly that when things went wrong – not that he ever managed to predict that they would – we were desperately short of funds to make repairs. As a result, taxes will have to go up, and public services may have to endure damaging cuts. Finally, when the time came to clear up the mess, he dithered and brooded while the stock market went into free fall and banks went to the wall."

louis : ..."It's no go the Government grants, it's no go the elections...

...Sit on your arse for fifty years and hang your hat on a pension...


market ticker :
The Genesis Plan ..."While there were a few signs of credit market stress easing (a bit) today, (friday) there were also more anecdotes of things getting much worse. I see nothing to suggest that short-term lending has returned to normal, and until I do, I remain on high alert for the sort of disruptive events that can impact your life in very undesirable ways.

Yes, the market bounced hard today. Twice. Artificial? Maybe. Inside knowledge? More probably. Will whatever the "crackberry network" was buzzing about work? Likely not for more than a few days, but with the market this jittery, it doesn't matter - when the VIX is this high anything that makes people jump causes this sort of reaction - in either direction.

Get on it folks - plaster the media and your elected officials with the fact that we now have hard evidence that this path forward will not only work on a technical basis, but if it is adopted it will clear the credit markets almost immediately, which is the key element of this mess that must be resolved." market ticker

louis : ..."It's no go the merry-go-round, it's no go the rickshaw...

...All we want is a limousine and a ticket for the peepshow...


john authers : ..."
A deeper irony is that there may not have been any need to update the book. Stock market conditions look ever more like the 1930s.

The noughties are much more similar to the 1930s than commonly thought. In morning trading on Friday, the S&P 500’s fall for the decade was almost identical to its fall for the decade on the same date in 1938. The pattern of the two decades is freakishly similar, with a big sell-off followed by a prolonged rally and then a fresh bear market. The key difference is that the sell-off in this decade before the “fools’ rally” began was far less severe than in the 1930s.

This, we can now see, was because cheap credit had inflated a new bubble.

This is what followers of Graham had argued. They said the market during the twin lows of the WorldCom crisis in 2002 and the invasion of Iraq in 2003 was still not cheap. Dividend yields, for example, were still barely half their level of the mid-1990s, before the tech bubble took hold.

But the similarities between the market tops in 1929 and 2000 are compelling. Both saw wildly overvalued stock markets and economies that were still in decent shape.

Measures based on cash, such as dividend yield or cash flow multiples, show that the market is now much cheaper than it was during the false bottom of 2002-03, even if overall indices are still higher.

We are not, therefore, in a new 1929. Our position is more similar to that of the late 1930s. That is not so encouraging: in the decade after October 10 1938, the S&P gained 5 per cent.

But at least we have a clear historical comparison, and a clear guide for how to proceed. Providing you are not using borrowed money, and you can afford to wait a matter of years for Mr Market to thrash out his problems, then Security Analysis is all you need.

Do not try to work out how long the market will take to recover or when it will hit bottom – that task is impossible. Use basic balance sheet methods to work out how much a stock is worth and how much it would be worth if the worst came to the worst. If that calculation leaves you with a margin of safety, then buy it. Don’t let the hand of history gripping your shoulder stop you." FT

paintypension : yo!...right on ...innit!...

...oh yeh! a disclaimer at top...none o this is don blame me if ya f**k up ya pension...

louis : ...The glass is falling hour by hour, the glass will fall for ever...

...But if you break the bloody won't hold up the weather..."

"Bagpipe Music" by Louis MacNeice 1935

peterthepainter : good..innit!

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