Thursday, 23 April 2020

DON'T EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED

 yo!.. 11,000,000 house holds can't be wrong... innit!


20,000 DOW IS BACK TO THE FUTURE

in palookaville today..

  • The Dow will retest previous lows as economic reality cripples the bear-market rally.
  • Deflation, Warren Buffett, and an economic false start..will likely zap investor confidence in the coming days.
  • Patient bears will be the ultimate winners when it comes to market timing.
 "Enter deflation, one of the main reasons for the Great Depression..
A rapid decline in the price of goods and services due to low demand..
creates a domino effect for the rest of the economy..
Lower demand equals lower corporate revenue..
Lower corporate income equals more layoffs..
More layoffs mean less consumer spending. 
Rinse and repeat."



 NOBODY EXPECTS THE SPANISH INQUISITION


things are lookin up..

or are they lookin down?

an don't forget..

this ain't no advice..


PALOOKAVILLE EXPECTS


every palooka ta do they duty..

but nobody expects that..

ta happen anytime soon..


it's evva palooka fo they sel.

women an children first..

after me..


devil take the dumbest..

an the smokers..

an the over snackers..

an evva one..

cep me!



CARRY A PARA


parasol, parapluis..

ain't no sad shit..

gonna happen to me..


RAINDROPS KEEP A FALLIN


So I just did me some talking to the sun
And I said I didn't like the way he got things done
Sleeping on the job..

Those raindrops are falling on my head, they keep falling
But there's one thing I know

The blues they send to meet me
Won't defeat me, it won't be long..

Till happiness steps up to greet me
Raindrops keep falling on my head
But that doesn't mean my eyes will soon be turning red..

Crying's not for me
'Cause I'm never gonna stop the rain by complaining
Because I'm free
Nothing's worrying me


Sechel
sounds like this could get ugly again come the fall and winter..
if we don't have serious mitigation and testing plans put in place..
New York seems to be doing that developing a testing and tracing plan. 
I see Bloomberg is helping to organize one. 
Why the Federal government is not taking a greater role.. 
on a federally mandated and locally run program is beyond me. 
this will come back when we re-open. 
how can it not? 
 there's no plan to limit reinfection

OIL SHOCKER : update one

yo!.. grapes o rath... innit!

in palookaville today..


SHOCK AN AWE


evva body shock at alla jobs gone..

evva body shock atta drop in pmi..

evva body shock at public debt surge..

it's awsum said boris johnson..

just another patient..

like any ordinary palooka..


BANK OF ENGLAND RAID


computers atta bank..

be raided..

to allow for increased numbers..


those scuzzy bastards..

came the cry from forex traders..

who are pissed at alla currencies fallin at once..

it's lak oil times ..

said one flummoxed trader..


USE OF A.D. IDENTIFIED


artificial dumbness..

is being blamed..

for the failure to prepare..

as thousands of airplanes..

carrying the virus..

from china..

and eventually..

the whole wide world..

were welcomed to heathrow..

where the virus spewed out into the whole economy..


ITTA CLUSTA FUCK


said one treasury minister..

who shall remain blameless..


COCK UP AN LOCK UP


the luckdown is losin..

anna breakin bad..

is gainin ground..

the crowd are gettin restless..

the queen is in the counting house..

counting out the money..

the economy in the dog house..

feelin kinda funny..


I'M SHOCKED THAT YOU'RE SHOCKED


Oil prices fell under severe pressure and went negative..

That could be a magnified version of what..

we’re about to see for the rest of the U.S. economy.  
 Source: CNN
 

BOLLOCKS CALLED

from slope of hope blog -




As of this writing at 5:56 p.m. EST on April 23, 2020…
 this lowest price the continuous WTI oil contract..
(ticker symbol /cl, the true front month contract prices only)
has traded during the year 2020 is $6.50..
I will include a screenshot from thinkorswim with this post.
So there you have it.
The truth about “zero” and “negative” oil..
It both did, but really DID NOT happen.
Call it a paradox, an enigma, a rip in the space time continuum..
that even three Starship Enterprises couldn’t fix.

I’ll call it what it really was:
Another blatant episode of misreporting by people who are paid to know better,..


GOOD CALL TIM


now back to the oil shocker..


what did we think would happen?

shudda stopped them airplanes pdq..

took the hit in time..

save nine... 

innit!


COMING UP




form a new clan stan..






NEVER MIND THE HYPER BOWL

yo!.. this sporting life... innit!



we're missing our sports..

here in palookaville..

the virus has postponed..

a normal sporting life..

all we have left are..


THE VIRUS GAMES


the season won't end until..


THE HYPER BOWL

you know..

when the bull shit gets so loud..

and so thick..

that even poor teams can win..


NOT FIT TO PLAY


the trouble with these games..


THE CURRENT WORLD SERIES


is that there is no..

level playing field..

for some it is an unequal..

virus load..

some o the virus strain..

is nastier than others..

who gets what is just..

the luck of the draw..

then again..

some o the teams ain't fit..

some of the coaches are crap..

team leaders fail to get the playbook right..

some fail to understand the rules..

but mostly..

the players are past their prime..

or the wrong color..

or too fat..

or just plain knackered..

how can you win these games?

if you start off on the wrong foot..


MONEY ON THE SIDELINES


all bets are off..

the spectators..

are in the bar..

or in the pavillion..

having afternoon tea..

the oil that normally..

lubricates the sport..

has gone down the lavatory..

they can't get..

the big palooka..

off the tele..

they just can't shut him up..

the crowd are gettin restless..

they want the ref. ta shut him up..

or send him off..

time penalties apply..


THE SEARCH IS ON


for the persons who started these games..

the crowd are baying for blood..

but they fail to see..

it was the airplanes wot done it..

yes the virus is a..

nasty little fucker..

but he cain't fly..

without help from above..


WHAT ARE THEIR NAMES


and on what streets do they live..


MEANWHILE


the crowd begins to sing..

a range of traditional..

sportin songs..

the hyper bowl..

would not be the national fixture..

that it is..

without the crowd singalong..


sing a song of sixpence..

a catcher in awry..

four an twenty animals..

baked inna pie..

when a pie was opened..

a virus begin ta sing..

oh what a dainty dish..

ta put before a king..


OH DEAR


oh dear what canna matter be?

the price of oil..

has gone down a lavatory..

we've all gone short..

til after next saturday..


THRILLS AND SPILLS


the score board is signaling..

the end of the first quarter..

the yankees are takin a beating..

but remain in good heart..

the problem for the suits..

is what happens..

once the african and indian games get rolling..

the numbers could be off the charts..

then there is the catering..

the contracts for the food concessions..

have failed to sell..

and now it ain't just the players..

but the crowd also..

that gets ta go hungry..


ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS


it looks like we..

goin down ta a wire..

an extra time will..

need ta be played..

the arguing, gouging an shirt pullin..

will go on an on..










Wednesday, 22 April 2020

A LEVEL VIRUS FIELD

yo!.. only game in town... innit!


today here in palookaville..

all the go is..

germany winnin the games..

it ain't even half time..

some folks reckon..

we still inna first quarter..

still an all..

maybe we should check out the.

german playbook..

ta see what we can learn..

 

What Germany got right in the fight against coronavirus



While it remains to be seen whether the German authorities have got it right..

or acted too soon in easing the pressure..

it is clear the country has done better than mos..

of its European neighbours in tackling the virus so far.

Germany has one of the lowest case fatality rates in the world..

with 4,869 deaths for 147,593 detected infections..

according to Johns Hopkins University in the US..

That’s a case fatality rate of just over 3 per cent..

compared to around 13 per cent in the UK, France and Italy.


What's more, German scientists..

announced last week they had succeeded..

in bringing the reproduction factor..

the number of people each person with the virus passes the infection to..

under 1 for the first time.

Whatever happens next..

right now Germany is as close to a coronavirus success story as Europe has..

The story of that success comes down to three things..

preparedness..

a decentralised system that lets doctors make the calls..

and a generous slice of luck.


COPY THAT

 

fair play to them..

they done good..

y'all should read the whole article..


an then git yo own teams ta..


adopt as much of this..


as possible.

 

PLAY NICELY NOW

 

 some folks sayin.. 

no fair..


they sayin the games is rigged..


some teams..

havin ta play..

a tougher game..

that the virus..

they have to play with..

is a tougher son of a bitch..

an that it..

don't play fair.

Coronavirus’s ability to mutate has been vastly underestimated, and mutations affect deadliness of strains, Chinese study finds

  • The most aggressive strains of Sars-CoV-2 could generate..
  •  270 times as much viral load as the least potent type
  •  
  • New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe..
  • compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States

 so..

maybe not a level playin field..

maybe all virus be equal..

but..

some be more equal than others..

 

LET THE BOFFINS BE THE REFEREES

 

track down all mutations..

an ban em from a games..

or give a weighting..

or a handicap..

or whatevva..

 

if they a deadlier strain..

identify and disqualify..

let the people know..

 

lets not fix..

 

THIS WORLD SERIES

 

let's have a fair fight..

and a..

true winner..

SLICK OIL : THE BOOM THAT WAS

yo!.. sick not slick... innit!
 
 
dig this man..
 
they want ta fill..
 
the great palookaville lake..
 
with something so crude..
 
it will kill alla fish..
 
this calls fo a mass debate..
 
 
THE GREAT OIL SPILL


 

Also on Tuesday, the Texas Railroad Commission punted on the idea of mandating production cuts. Two of the three commissioners were uneasy with the idea of voting on the proposal. Ryan Sitton, the one commissioner in favor of requiring a 20 percent cut in the state’s production, argued that not voting was itself a decision, allowing the market to mete out production cuts in a disorderly fashion. “I don’t believe that inaction on our part is acceptable,” Sitton said.

Meanwhile, there are other ideas for government intervention. The oil and gas industry is lobbying the Federal Reserve to loosen its $600 billion lending facility to allow drillers to use funds to repay debt, according to Reuters.

In addition, the “Treasury [Department] could guarantee loans to distressed firms in return for equity stakes or senior debt, and Washington could use its voting shares to compel shut-ins (i.e., as part of a bargain with OPEC+),” ClearView Energy Partners wrote in a note to clients.

While the oil market drowns in oversupply, there also seems to be a glut of unusual policy responses coming from Washington aimed at bailing out the industry.

But in the face of demand destruction on the order of 25 to 30 million barrels per day (mb/d), there is very little that the U.S. government can do to head off steep production losses and bankruptcies.
 




My Plan
  • Stop the bailouts.
  • Let the oil speculators go bankrupt.
  • Let the financers take it on the chin as well.
When Does the Crash Stop?
  1. When producers stop drilling oil that is not needed.
  2. When the speculators putting on "paper oil" trades get wiped out.
Paper Oil
Oil is another example of leveraged trades. Even more so than gold, speculators will not take delivery.
For discussion of delivery issues related to gold, please see Gold "What If?" Silliness
Only Plan We Need
It's time for personal responsibility, not bailouts of favored industries.
That's the only plan we need.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock



Sechel
 Not that it would matter I think but those production cuts Trump negotiated don't take effect for a while. OPEC is meeting to enact them sooner.

Now for the silliness.

Trump wants to buy oil from U.S. producers that they keep in the ground and safe keep for the U.S. Good luck keeping track of that. 
 Seems like a cash gift
Trump is also toying with the idea of an embargo on Saudi oil purchases.

There won't be any demand until world economies start opening up again. 
We're talking a few months but it won't be like before. 
Silly for governments, our government to try and stand in front of this. 
We need to let this play out. 
Market will address it. 
High cost sites will cap wells. 
If some firms go out of business, the oil will still be there or creditors take over the company. 
We don't need to bail out hedge funds and stock holders.
Market is projecting prices recover somewhat in a few months. 
 Politicians should make note of that


Being honest is painful but freeing. Once all the ugliness is exposed to sunlight, then healing becomes possible. As long as reality is cloaked, hidden, explained away, etc., the destruction only deepens until complete collapse of the masquerade is the only possible outcome.
We've reached that point: we can no longer deny the U.S. economy is little more than a grab-bag of skims, scams, fraud and corruption. Even if Covid-19 vanished from the Earth tomorrow, or the entire economy opened tomorrow, the collapsing of the fraud bubble cannot be reversed, any more than the addict can be "cured" with some makeup to mask the devastation and clean clothing to hide all the tracks.
Let's start with the most risible fraud: "value." Every skim and scam claims to be "creating value" for shareholders, customers, the planet, etc. But it's all fraud and lies. No value is being created; what's really happening is entrenched insiders have established corrupt relationships that funnel income streams into their own pockets at the expense of everyone else, who must be kept in the dark about how the skim/scam actually works.
 
We don't just have financial bubbles that are popping; we have bubbles in trust and credibility that are popping, too. All the lies, skims, scams, excuses, frauds, bezzles, artifices, profiteering, promotional schemes and rackets are unraveling, not because the virus shut down the economy but because the enormity of all the corruption, lies and fraud is now so great that the entire status quo is collapsing under its own weight.
 
THE CENTRAL SCRUTINIZER
 heh heh heh..
 so ya see..
here in palookaville..
we got alla bases covered..
heads we win..
 tales you lose..
innit!
 
 
 

Tuesday, 21 April 2020

COOKING WITH DIESEL

yo!.. diesel fitter... innit! 

in palookaville..

no one can hear you cough..

Air pollution may be ‘key contributor’ to Covid-19 deaths – study


High levels of air pollution may be “one of the most important contributors” to deaths from Covid-19, according to research.
The analysis shows that 78% of the coronavirus deaths occurred..
 in just five out of 66 administrative regions..
 studied in Italy, Spain, France and Germany, 
and that these five regions were the most polluted.

The research examined nitrogen dioxide levels..
 a pollutant produced mostly by diesel vehicles..
 and weather conditions that can prevent dirty air..
 from dispersing away from a city. 
 Many studies have linked NO2 exposure to health damage..
and particularly lung disease..
which could make people more likely to die..
if they contract Covid-19.


A separate study published on 7 April looked at fine particle pollution in the US and found that even small increases in levels in the years before the pandemic were associated with far higher Covid-19 death rates. Another recent paper noted that the high death rates seen in the north of Italy correlated with the highest levels of air pollution.
The new research, published in the journal Science of the Total Environment, compared NO2 levels in January and February in 66 administrative regions with Covid-19 deaths recorded up to 19 March. Ogen also assessed the atmospheric conditions to see where pollution was being trapped over the regions.
He found that 78% of the 4,443 deaths were in four regions..
 in northern Italy and one around Madrid in Spain. 
 These five regions had the worst combination of NO2 levels..
 and airflow conditions..
 that prevented dispersal of air pollution.

COCK LOCK STOCK SHOCK

yo!.. could get messy... innit!


 LOCK DOWN, COCK UP,  STOCK SHOCK 



Sechel
Michigan residents should be angry at Donald Trump..
What's stopping people from going back to work are..

swabs, reagents, test kits, gowns and masks..

The governors don't want people staying home..

its costing people their livelihoods..

and state tax revenue.


PALOOKAVILLE MASK SHORTAGE



VIX UP OIL DOWN

The collapse in oil markets comes amid a generalized economic downturn, 
with the coronavirus pandemic 
plunging most of the world’s economies into a downward spiral 
many believe will be the deepest since 
the Great Depression of the 1930s.




Courtesy of IHSMarkit's energy vice president Roger Diwan
from zeropoint

 How did you end up with negative oil prices today?

 This happens when a physical futures contract finds..
no buyers close to or at expiry.

Let me explain what that means:

A physical contract such as the NYMEX WTI has a delivery point at Cushing, OK, &
date, in this occurrence May. 
So people who hold the contract at the end of the trading window 
have to take physical deliveryof the oil 
they bought on the futures market. 
This is very rare.
It means that in the last few days of the futures trading cycle, 
(which is tomorrow for this one) speculative or paper futures positions
start rolling over to the next contract.

This is normally a pretty undramatic affair.
What is happening today is trades or speculators
who had bought the contract are
finding themselves unable to resell it, 
and have no storage booked to get delivered
the crude in Cushing, OK, where the delivery is specified in the contract.
This means that all the storage in Cushing is booked,
and there is no price they can pay to store it, 
or they are totally inexperienced in this game and are caught
holding a contract they did not understand the full physical aspect of
as the time clock expires.
A decline of over 15% in the June contract price points to real worries 
that the physical stress will continue to reverberate, 
and will force a lot more production shutdowns during May 
than the ones announced so far.
So today negative prices are the reflection of dire market conditions for producers,
with the hope that demand restart before the middle of May and that the 
June contract does not face the same fate. 


West Texas Intermediate oil prices have gone negative in a record low for the US benchmark, as the market continues to crater amid the general economic collapse.
Vanishing demand and a glut of supply have combined to heavily impact the US benchmark fuel, with prices dropping from $18.27 to close at -$37.63 a barrel on Monday – down over 300 percent from the previous day’s close. It's the first time the crude oil futures contract has ever traded in the negative since the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) started trading it in 1983.




Brexitologist
This is today, bad enough.
What about next week ? Next month ??
Anyone with any practical knowledge of the oil patch knows that this is going to get (literally) messy, very messy indeed...


Sechel
I know how we got here.
Economic Growth is weak to collapsing
America is now an oil exporter
China is not a driver of oil consumption
I'm still not sure about this price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia Some say they are colluding against American shale producers. I can't see Saudi Arabia an aly doing that. My view is Saudi Arabia was going after Russia and not colluding with them. The Saudis and Russians never cooperate.
I don't see how high cost shale and tar sand production is economically justified. High cost sites will have to be capped if that's the right term. Long term cars are moving to electric and the price of solar and wind keeps dropping. Incidentally New York State just shut its last coal plant
Oh and Donald Trump said trade wars are easy to win.
And I do think Randolph and Mortimer Duke made a killing!



Freebees2me
Where are the "Greenies"!!!??? Where are all the environmentalists....?????
Are we not now living in the world they have long sought? Are we now not living in a world where there's no demand for oil? Where there's no demand for production and workers either.....And, the trees soaking it up.... We're seeing huge reductions in CO2...
Shouldn't the Greenies' be cheering all this on? But, all we hear are crickets....



Montana33
Traders in these futures markets distort prices by buying oil
when they can't take delivery of it..
and/or selling oil they don't have.
They never expect the music to stop which is so foolish.
So now a bunch of hedge funds/oil traders who bought futures..

HAVE TO PAY FOR THE OIL!
That's right - they have to buy oil that they cannot store and cannot sell.
 Futures contacts are real..
 and if you can't roll them over into a new contract..
then you have to legally pay up..
or go bankrupt.

 This is why the price is negative -
that's the hedge funds/oil traders begging someone who is actually in the oil business
to take this oil off their hands.
Good luck with that!

I'll bet there is literally no storage space left.
The little that was there is already spoken for so.... oil prices could go down from here.
 All oil producers need to shut down completely.
 How fast can additional oil storage facilities be built?
Not fast enough.

Brent crude plunges 25%

In another alarming development, the Brent crude oil price has now plunged to an 18-year low.
Brent (sourced from the North Sea) is trading at just $19 per barrel, down 25% today alone, following the slump in US crude oil prices below zero last night.


West Texas Intermediate oil prices have gone negative in a record low for the US benchmark, as the market continues to crater amid the general economic collapse.
Vanishing demand and a glut of supply have combined to heavily impact the US benchmark fuel, with prices dropping from $18.27 to close at -$37.63 a barrel on Monday – down over 300 percent from the previous day’s close. It's the first time the crude oil futures contract has ever traded in the negative since the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) started trading it in 1983.


This Is Why the Oil Price Is About to ‘Surge’ $40 Overnight


coming up..

oil to be stored in kings college chapel..

oil to be stored in kilner jars..

jam jars..

when is a door not a door..

when it's a jar..


the oil future's not what it used ta be..

Congratulations. I knew the record would stand until it was broken..

Take it with a grin of salt.



Monday, 20 April 2020

THE VIRUS ROADSHOW

yo! ... blast from the past... innit!


beautiful, fragrant..

fiona bruce..

hosts the famous palookaville..

antiques show..

this week live from..

the nightingale hospital..

our hostess..

is regaled in the finest bin liners and rags..

only to be expected..

here in palookaville..


FIRST UP


an old virus from the second world war..

the audience loves these old ..

military yarns..

seems like..

100 years ago..

that this old virus..

played it's merry games..

in a very tired post war..

population..

The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic..

was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic..

Lasting from January 1918 to December 1920..

it infected 500 million people..

about a third of the world's population at the time.[2]

 The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from..

17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million..

making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.[3]


of course..

things were different then..

they didn't have our..

modern equipment..

excellent ppe..

computer simulations..

virus modelling..

infection tracking..

infection detectives..

ta test an trace..

those poor souls..

carryin the plague..


these days..

with our great leap forwards..

to modern times..

we have the virus..

fully under control..

we know all there is to know..

all about it..

we own this little fucker..


BASIC BETTER BEST


here on..

the antique virus show..

we have experts..

who can tell..

which countries..

are winning the games..

some are best practice economies..

test and trace, formal quarantine, full ppe..

some are simply..

better than others..

you know..

fewer infections, fewer deaths..

less economic damage, less heart ache..

and of course..

some are basic..

and we all know which ones these are..


A PRICE MUST BE IDENTIFIED


for that is the point of the show..

so fiona..

what is the cost of each countries games?

well.. what do the audience think?..

what about you little boy..

" I stuck my finger in the dyke"

great!

and what about you madame?

I think that..

the british and american games are the basic..

the german and new zealand games are better..

an taiwan is the best..


SO FAR SO BAD


here on the antique virus game show..

we like ta go out with a bang..

something really expensive..

that will get the viewers cheering..

and increase the ratings..

 so what is this week's most expensive mistake?


COMING UP

 no big drama..

antiques roadshow removed from air..

all filming cancelled..

a spokes person for the bbc says..

too many happy people..

close together in a public space..

too many smiling faces..

we felt it would only..

depress the viewers..

who are having..

to stay at home and watch..

pictures of the life they used to have..

and can now no longer look forward to..


THE HUNGER GAMES

yo! ... starvation... innit!


every 100 years or so..

here in palookaville..

we have..


THE VIRUS GAMES


all sorts of..

high jinks an capers..

are laid bare by..

a new virus..

wot nobody evva seen before..

it's the novelty..

that gets the games off..

ta a really fast start..

before ya know it..

little fucker be..

all over a word..


THIS TIME IT'S STARVATION


Katniss Everdeen..

 We all have one enemy, and that’s President Snow..

He corrupts everyone and everything..

He turns the best of us against each other..


IT'S WORSE THAN THAT
 

as if the virus wasn't bad enough..

the mutations are even worse..

for every virus infection..

there are 100 extra casualties..

unemployed, unschooled.. in debt,

gone bust, grounded, stuck in port, mothballed..

but by far the worst collateral damage..

is starvation..


THE WIND IS IN FROM AFRICA


The wind is in from Africa
Last night I couldn't sleep..

Oh, you know it sure is hard to leave here dude..
But it's really not my fault..

My fingernails are filthy..
I got nothin ta eat..
I don't have your clean white linen..
nor shoes upon my feat..

Come on down to the closed Cafe..

I will get us a bottle of wine

And we'll laugh and toast to nothing..

and smash our glasses down..

Let's have a round for these hungry children
A round for these friends of mine..

Let's have another round for the virus devil 
that traps us in this tourist town..

‘Starve or get sick’: Africa’s COVID-19 lockdown dilemma

“I give them (the government) one to two weeks before things get worse..

Not in terms of coronavirus, but in terms of hunger,”..

said Kennedy Odede, who runs Shining Hope For Communities (SHOFCO),

a grassroots movement which works in the Nairobi slum Kibera..

and other informal settlements in Kenya.


 

 President Snow..

 Hope. It is the only thing stronger than fear..

 A little hope is effective..

A lot of hope is dangerous.

katniss evergreen..

“They'll be granted immunity!" 

I feel myself rising from my chair..

"You will personally pledge this in front of the entire population..

 of District Thirteen and the remainder of Twelve. Soon,Today..

It will be recorded for future generations..

You will hold yourself and your government responsible for their safety..”

President Snow..

 Miss Everdeen, it is the things we love most that destroy us.

 Effie Trinket..

 Happy Virus Games! And may the odds be ever in your favor.